Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

How do people determine whether 'anytime goalscorer' is value, the laying part specifically. Guess it works for backing too.
For example, in a Barcelona game towards the end of the season, Fabregas was evens to score anytime. Being evens to score anytime, doesn't that suggest he scores a goal a game? Obviously this could be layed at evens which I believed to be value, am I working it out correctly? He scores nowhere close to a goal a game...

needs to be a goal every 2 games to be break even.

You in Vegas Dave?

sadly not back there til September

Boo!

[horseplayer]

Free bets must be used on any 2013 Wimbledon tennis market


on the murray offer

[MereNovice]

Free bets must be used on any 2013 Wimbledon tennis market


on the murray offer

Yup.
Thanks.

[MereNovice]

Royal Ascot Summary.


Date          Bets        Profit/Loss
18-Jun         20            398.25
19-Jun         9            171
20-Jun         12            -79.04
21-Jun         13            -206.75
22-Jun         4            -40
                     
Total         58            243.46


In addition we have the following free bets outstanding:

Ladbrokes            £25
WilliamHill            £72   (3 * £24)
BetVictor            £21   (£20 + £1)!

[exstream]

Well done or unlucky, during Ascot.

[redarmi]

How do people determine whether 'anytime goalscorer' is value, the laying part specifically. Guess it works for backing too.
For example, in a Barcelona game towards the end of the season, Fabregas was evens to score anytime. Being evens to score anytime, doesn't that suggest he scores a goal a game? Obviously this could be layed at evens which I believed to be value, am I working it out correctly? He scores nowhere close to a goal a game...

It is a lot more involved than that really mate.  Firstly, you have to assign what percentage of the teams goals that individual could be expected to score in todays lineup.  A ballpark figure is generally good enough but his long run average is often not good enough especially when a player that score a lot of goals is out as like Messi was as Dom mentioned.  Then you need to figure out how many goals there are likely to be in the game and what percentage of those goals are likely to come from his team.  Then you calculate how likely they are to score 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 goals (using poisson distribution is best) and then use binomial distribution to calculate how likely your man is to score each of them and sum it.

[MereNovice]

Well done or unlucky, during Ascot.

Yes, mixed fortunes.
Our results tailed off somewhat.

If someone would like to do an analysis of all the offers that I missed that might be entertaining.

[redarmi]

Well done or unlucky, during Ascot.

Yes, mixed fortunes.
Our results tailed off somewhat.

If someone would like to do an analysis of all the offers that I missed that might be entertaining.

I would say they are pretty great results all told......

[MereNovice]

Well done or unlucky, during Ascot.

Yes, mixed fortunes.
Our results tailed off somewhat.

If someone would like to do an analysis of all the offers that I missed that might be entertaining.

I would say they are pretty great results all told......

Doobs banked £675 profit on the first day with "Declaration Of War" so that adds a little perspective.

[Bazzaboy]

Banks loses on points after a pretty shameful performance.

[hector62]

Morning Mr M.

I am currently looking for the best rugby league bet for this afternoon but I think we should first consider backing England in the cricket. It is so cold and windy that the Indians will have to wear 3 jumpers and surely our bowlers will have better control in these conditions. On a sunny day I wouldn't bet against the Indian batsmen but today it must seem like opposing French rugby players away from home. I have taken the 6-5 for England but what do the cricketing bods think?

[MereNovice]

Morning Mr M.

I am currently looking for the best rugby league bet for this afternoon but I think we should first consider backing England in the cricket. It is so cold and windy that the Indians will have to wear 3 jumpers and surely our bowlers will have better control in these conditions. On a sunny day I wouldn't bet against the Indian batsmen but today it must seem like opposing French rugby players away from home. I have taken the 6-5 for England but what do the cricketing bods think?

The toss has just taken place and the odds are now 4/5 best.

[hector62]

I will have to consider greening out. That is quite an impressive swing in the odds.

[MereNovice]

I will have to consider greening out. That is quite an impressive swing in the odds.

Yes.
India went from 1.85 to 2.16 on Betfair.

Having checked again, Boylesports are offering 21/20 so have taken £20.
Fingers crossed for no "palp".

On

Bet ref: 93/85
England @ 21/20
England v India
To Win Match
Total stake   £20.00
Estimated return   £41.00

[MereNovice]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/confederations-cup/uruguay-v-tahiti/first-goalscorer


Presumably there's no bargains here after the Spain game?