Seven races into the 2013 Formula One season and already double World Champion Sebastian Vettel is building a nice lead at the head of the drivers championship. This weekend, Silverstone for the British Grand Prix. Can anyone stop Vettel from adding to his lead?
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Mark Webber British Grand Prix 10/1 each way with Sporting Bet/Stan James
Formula 1 arrives at Silverstone this week for the British Grand Prix at an important juncture in the World Championship battle.
In Canada three weeks ago, Sebastian Vettel won his third race of the season to go 36 points clear of Alonso and the pack in the chase for another World Drivers Championship. Vettel has finished every race this year, only twice not been on the podium, and never been lower than fourth.
Red Bull have won three of the last four British Grand Prix in the usual varying weather conditions that this event provides and crucially Silverstone is a track that suits the Red Bull like few others. Under pre-eminent car designer Adrian Newey Red Bull has had an aerodynamic advantage over the field for several years and Silverstone, with its long sweeping fast corners is perfect for the Red Bull, which isn't the fastest car in a straight line but corners like no other Formula One car.
Wet or dry, it is hard to look past three men as the most likely winners on Sunday. The two Red Bull drivers, Vettel and Webber and Fernando Alonso, who won at Silverstone on the only one of the last four occasions not won by a Red Bull.
The hope for Alonso and others is that the fast corners that the Red Bull thrives on might also be its downfall this year under the new Pirelli tyre regime that makes they tyres barely stable. Red Bull have proven harder on their tyres than Ferrari and Lotus and the load through these fast corners provides a different challenge, under this tyre regimen, than in prior years.
Looking at the rest of the field, The Lotus beings a big upgrade package to Silverstone, and is very easy on its tyres. However it has much to prove with disappointing results recently and a lack of pace.
At Mercedes, they face a re-occurrence of a familiar recent pattern of of qualifying at the front and slipping backwards in the race due to a car design and aerodynamic flaws that makes them very tough on tyres.
On form and precedent, this sort of track is exactly the opposite of what Mercedes require , because the car eats up its rear tyres. One team insider admitted in Canada that he was "bricking himself" about the race for that reason, so it seems fair to suggest that Hamilton and Nico Rosberg can expect more of the same and exclude them from considerations for betting purposes this weekend.
Looking at current prices for the race winner we see
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/winnerSebastian Vettel 7/4
Fernando Alonso 11/4
Lewis Hamilton 7/1
Kimi Raikkonen 8/1
Mark Webber 10/1
Nico Rosberg 10/1
We know Vettel is representing a very strong package. The bookies know it too, and it is priced in. We know Alonso is his biggest threat. The interesting opportunity, and price, lies with Mark Webber
Webber has won two of the last four British Grand Prix. When push comes to shove, we know that the Red Bull team favours Vettel, and that is reflected in the price. At each way terms of 1/5 the odds for a posium place (top three finish) Webber is excellent value. He is in the best car for the circuit, he loves racing there and the team showed evidcen in Canada that it is overcoming tyre problems
Webber at 10/1 is far better value than either Mercedes driver at the odds, or Raikkonen ahead of the evidence of the upgrades
Recommendation
Mark Webber British Grand Prix 10/1 each way with Sporting Bet/Stan James
This is for small stakes please, say £10 ew because
- FI has many variables randomising especially at the British Grand Prix
weather
qualifying risk
tyres
for Webber, team orders risk
It is interesting that i you look at the podium finish market
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/podium-finishthe best you can get is 8/5, not the 2/1 you get by ew 1/5 for the winner.
Realistically something has to go wrong with Vettel for Webber to win, but I do think 10-1 understates the likelihood of a podium finish
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