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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16409002 times)
MereNovice
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« Reply #44160 on: June 26, 2013, 06:36:50 PM »

BetFred are going 5/2 Neymar to score at anytime vs Uruguay. Best elsewhere is 11/10. Don't know how long they're holding it for.

Edit - you might need to click this link to get it: http://bfd.me/11HFZQX

Thanks.

Took max of £10.

On

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Betfred Social Bet
Brazil v Uruguay Enhanced Special
Neymar To Score Anytime (90 Mins Only)   5/2   
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 35.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 35.00
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« Reply #44161 on: June 26, 2013, 06:46:52 PM »

Looks short enough straight and cow corner furthest point of pic for right hander. Defo think over 7.5@5/6 is a bet if pitch isn't a low turner

The pitch is firm and bouncy from the looks of it
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Dubai
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« Reply #44162 on: June 26, 2013, 06:54:20 PM »

Looks a bet then. Wilson and Ansari down as 4/5 for Surrey and 10/1 20/1 top rs. Obv if they are 4 and 5 they both massive
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« Reply #44163 on: June 26, 2013, 06:55:52 PM »

roy
burns
solanki
maxwell
de bruyn
azhar
wilson
ansari

would be the order unless things go very well or very badly and it is mixed up
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« Reply #44164 on: June 26, 2013, 06:56:58 PM »

Sorry they are down as 5/6- DB down as lower
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« Reply #44165 on: June 26, 2013, 07:56:47 PM »

Seven races into the 2013 Formula One season and already double World Champion Sebastian Vettel is building a nice lead at the head of the drivers championship. This weekend, Silverstone for the British Grand Prix. Can anyone stop Vettel from adding to his lead?

Recommendation

Mark Webber British Grand Prix 10/1 each way with Sporting Bet/Stan James

Formula 1 arrives at Silverstone this week for the British Grand Prix at an important juncture in the World Championship battle.

In Canada three weeks ago, Sebastian Vettel won his third race of the season to go 36 points clear of Alonso and the pack in the chase for another World Drivers Championship. Vettel  has finished every race this year, only twice not been on the podium, and never been lower than fourth.

Red Bull have won three of the last four British Grand Prix in the usual varying weather conditions that this event provides and crucially Silverstone is a track that suits the Red Bull like few others. Under pre-eminent car designer Adrian Newey Red Bull has had an aerodynamic advantage over the field for several years and Silverstone, with its long sweeping fast corners is perfect for the Red Bull, which isn't the fastest car in a straight line but corners like no other Formula One car.

Wet or dry, it is hard to look past three men as the most likely winners on Sunday. The two Red Bull drivers, Vettel and Webber and Fernando Alonso, who won at Silverstone on the only one of the last four occasions not won by a Red Bull.

The hope for Alonso and others is that the fast corners that the Red Bull thrives on might also be its downfall this year under the new Pirelli tyre regime that makes they tyres barely stable. Red Bull have proven harder on their tyres than Ferrari and Lotus and the load through these fast corners provides a different challenge, under this tyre regimen, than in prior years.

Looking at the rest of the field, The Lotus beings a big upgrade package to Silverstone, and is very easy on its tyres. However it has much to prove with disappointing results recently and a lack of pace.

At Mercedes, they face a re-occurrence of a familiar recent pattern of of qualifying at the front and slipping backwards in the race due to a car design and aerodynamic flaws that makes them very tough on tyres.

 On form and precedent, this sort of track is exactly the opposite of what Mercedes require , because the car eats up its rear tyres.  One team insider admitted in Canada that he was "bricking himself" about the race for that reason, so it seems fair to suggest that Hamilton and Nico Rosberg can expect more of the same and exclude them from considerations for betting purposes this weekend.

Looking at current prices for the race winner we see

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/winner

Sebastian Vettel 7/4

Fernando Alonso 11/4

Lewis Hamilton 7/1

Kimi Raikkonen 8/1

Mark Webber 10/1

Nico Rosberg 10/1

We know Vettel is representing a very strong package. The bookies know it too, and it is priced in. We know Alonso is his biggest threat. The interesting opportunity, and price, lies with Mark Webber

Webber has won two of the last four British Grand Prix. When push comes to shove, we know that the Red Bull team favours Vettel, and that is reflected in the price. At each way terms of 1/5 the odds for a posium place (top three finish) Webber is excellent value. He is in the best car for the circuit, he loves racing there and the team showed evidcen in Canada that it is overcoming tyre problems

Webber at 10/1 is far better value than either Mercedes driver at the odds, or Raikkonen ahead of the evidence of the upgrades

Recommendation

Mark Webber British Grand Prix 10/1 each way with Sporting Bet/Stan James

This is for small stakes please, say £10 ew because

- FI has many variables randomising especially at the British Grand Prix

weather
qualifying risk
tyres
for Webber, team orders risk

It is interesting that i you look at the podium finish market

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/podium-finish

the best you can get is 8/5, not the 2/1 you get by ew 1/5 for the winner.

Realistically something has to go wrong with Vettel for Webber to win, but I do think 10-1 understates the likelihood of a podium finish


http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2013/06/why-are-red-bull-so-strong-at-silverstone/
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« Reply #44166 on: June 26, 2013, 08:01:17 PM »

Uruguay at up to 8/1 to beat Brazil, given recent games between the two, and the Uruguay firepower, is that value or can it be ignored?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/confederations-cup/brazil-v-uruguay/winner

I think it's value but I'm on Uruguay since pre tourney so I may be biased.

I like it too, said before that I think Brazil are always too short.  FWIW Suarez now best priced 10s to be first goal scorer. 
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #44167 on: June 26, 2013, 08:15:32 PM »

Just wondered what people thought of the Paddy Power "Money back Murray offer" (upto £100 cash refund if Murray wins) as a companion to our Murray bet ?. They go 5/6 Djokovic.

Is it a free bet or actual cash back?  Think its a bet, if it's cash back, as if we take BFs odds

Djok will win about 44%, murray 26%, so neither 30%.  

The return (at 5/6) is 1.83 x .44 plus 1 x .26 - so a return of 1.06 for 1 staked.

Not a bet if its a free bet, as you would need to get 100% equity from the free bet and that will be difficult.


(All assuming my sums are right)

Many thanks for the calcs, it is cash back, details here if anyone interested: http://www.paddypower.com/bet/money-back-specials#area=quicklinks

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« Reply #44168 on: June 26, 2013, 08:17:31 PM »

wooooooooooooooow now Federer gone too

what a day.

this mens game has some depth huh?
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« Reply #44169 on: June 26, 2013, 08:20:53 PM »

Forland penalty saved

Sixes bet floundering on Surrey ineptitude. No reason at all for no sixes on this pitch beyond lack of confidence and form
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« Reply #44170 on: June 26, 2013, 08:23:11 PM »

Did we get on Murray each way?
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« Reply #44171 on: June 26, 2013, 08:24:04 PM »

Did we get on Murray each way?

£10 ew at 7/2 and 4/1 each, money back if he doesn't make semis

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« Reply #44172 on: June 26, 2013, 08:36:08 PM »

Did we get on Murray each way?

£10 ew at 7/2 and 4/1 each, money back if he doesn't make semis



They only allowed £10 e/w at 4/1!!!
Mere took £15 e/w at 7/2.

I only know this because it was first credited to me Smiley just had to correct you!
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« Reply #44173 on: June 26, 2013, 08:39:05 PM »

Did we get on Murray each way?

£10 ew at 7/2 and 4/1 each, money back if he doesn't make semis



They only allowed £10 e/w at 4/1!!!
Mere took £15 e/w at 7/2.

I only know this because it was first credited to me Smiley just had to correct you!

It looks like he took both

so effective £25 e/w
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« Reply #44174 on: June 26, 2013, 08:40:29 PM »

Poor batting effort there, allowed Wilson to get up at 10/1 tho, was gonna moan if neither of them won there as both within 6 with over left
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