Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Some Jamaican fellow is trying to run quickly in about ten minutes on BBC one.

Might be worth a watch.

[BigAdz]

Any thoughts from Horsey/Chompy etc on Mukhadram in the 2.55 York tomorrow? 8/13 looks huge.

Established market this and 4/7 is right for me. Big class edge and should win but couple of hard races against Al Kazeem. They're not machines etc.

Surprised it wasn't flagged as a dirty ew race last week, with field now down to the almost inevitable half dozen.
Price looks right as Chompy says.

[kukushkin88]

Any thoughts from Horsey/Chompy etc on Mukhadram in the 2.55 York tomorrow? 8/13 looks huge.

Established market this and 4/7 is right for me. Big class edge and should win but couple of hard races against Al Kazeem. They're not machines etc.

Surprised it wasn't flagged as a dirty ew race last week, with field now down to the almost inevitable half dozen.
Price looks right as Chompy says.

Thanks chaps, I must be rusty, I had it in as a max. First proper horse studying Friday in nearly a year.

[Tal]

Get Tikay to lend you his algorithm, kush.

Last time, he carried a one and it paid dividends.

I mean, not literally...

[Chompy]

The Gina express has reached Oddsonville. Next stop Onepointthree Central.

[Tal]

The Gina express has reached Oddsonville. Next stop Onepointthree Central.

Well, when she does win, we can crack open a bottle of whatever Sir Percival is drinking.

[exstream]

I'm on Warrington like hector recommended. When is bet won?

[redarmi]

Tampa Bay Rays hit the front for the first time this season......cue throwing up in the air of the Racing Post in the Redarmi household and shouts of "aiai.....not too far......"

[Marky147]

Tampa Bay Rays hit the front for the first time this season......cue throwing up in the air of the Racing Post in the Redarmi household and shouts of "aiai.....not too far......"

Oioi!

[Jamier-Host]

Bar Yeovil, 6/1 is the most generous price offered by any odds maker throughout the division. I think thats wrong

Recommend £100 Barnsley to finish top half at Bet Victor 6/1

For me, if Tighty recommends £100 on something (being a massive Fred nit) we should be piling on.

Just ignore him when he tries to green out in September though. 

[tikay]

Laddies

Money back to £25 id Cirrus des Aigles wins

Thanks Adzy.

Any suggestions as to who we should back, then? 

[tikay]

I was mentioning the market for Top Yorkshire club in the Championship the other day

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/top-yorkshire-club

Barnsley 12-1

I asked Curtis for his opinion. Bearing in mind Curtis is a Barnsley fan, but by no means myopic or biased. Decent judge and says it as he sees it

"12/1 looks huge, on first sight.  Definitely value, even with the rose-tinted specs.

I think we were 15/8 on the top South Yorkshire team market I looked at yesterday, so this price is basically driven by Leeds and Huddersfield.  Of the two, I'd be more concerned about Huddersfield being the spoiler, as they've invested well over the summer, IMO, and Robins is a good manager.

I really like the Top Half bet at 6/1 though, and we have +30 points on the handicap list, which are my other markets of choice.

Basically, the bookies (unsurprisingly) appear not to have given any credence to the post-Flitcroft improvment last season and we're in our usual place of top 3 relegation favourites.  I think you can find value around us generally, as we have, if anything, strengthened in a division where FFP will adversely impact quite a few teams compared to last season.  Rather than the usual optimism based on hope, the facts show that this squad (largely) under this manager last season were a top 6 side over 20-odds games.  If you remove the exceptional impact of the relegation dogfight last year, then I still think we're a team capable of making the top 12 at least to the extent where 6/1 is value."

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/top-south-yorkshire-club

If we say that it might be a bit of a stretch to scoop at 12-1 and finish above Leeds, here is the market Curtis refers to

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/to-finish-in-top-half

I think 6-1 Barnsley to finish top half in this season's Championship is outstanding. The division is so close, and a number of teams definitely are hindered by FFP

Bar Yeovil, 6/1 is the most generous price offered by any odds maker throughout the division. I think thats wrong

Recommend £100 Barnsley to finish top half at Bet Victor 6/1

Thanks Tighty.

I assume you mean the SKY BET Championship?......

We have £100 @ 6/1, BetVictor, Barnsley to finish top half of Sky Bet Championship.

ON

Top Half FinishBarnsley (Specials)Odds: 6/1 Stake: 100.00Possible Return:  700.00

[tikay]

Next week's Sussex stakes looks an interesting race.

There are currently 13 runners, of which Aljamaaheer looks like it is going for the Lennox.

The composition of the race is currently
Dawn Approach 5/4
Toronado 13/8
Declaration of War 5/1
2 pace makers for Dawn Approach
1 pace maker for Declaration of War
1 pace maker for Toronado.
and a few that may turn up, but are probably group 2/group 3 horses.

There seems to be a good chance we get 8 runners or less, and even if we get 12, the race is still likely to be good for our bet.

Dawn Approach is obviously very good, and Toronado is highly though of and ran him close last time.  Declaration of War is also very good, and given the two 3 year olds are very much linked on form, then there is always a chance that Declaration of War is just as good, and/or Dawn Approach refuses to settle.

You can back Declaration of War at 5/1 with various bookmakers.  Though it doesn't beat Betfair, his place price should probably be way shorter than the evens on offer.  Even if the two 3 year olds do turn out to be exceptional, then we get the strong chance of our money back on the place.

Suggest £50 e/w on Declaration of War (1/5 first 3) in the Sussex.  You should probably split it over at least a couple of bookmakers.  The following all offer the price and the same each way terms (PP, bet365, sky, tote/betfred, BetVictor and Coral).

We already have 2 x £25 EW @ 5/1 (BetFred & Corals).

We now have a further £25 EW with BetVictor, @ 5/1, (1/5, 1, 2, 3)Declaration of War, Sussex Stakes.

ON

 Goodwood - Ante Post Sussex StakesDeclaration Of War (EW)(Horse Racing Outright)Odds: 5/1 Stake: 50.00Possible Return:  200.00

[tikay]

25/1 Nakhi Wells top goal scorer in league 1 is best 25/1 with BetVictor and Hills.  He is so good, Peterborough tried to poach him.  I think we need to reinvest a tenner of last year's winnings just because he is the unofficial thread mascot.

Cliffs. fast, young, didn't start every match last season, in an improving side, is a bit like Defoe if you squint, Chompy calls him Nikki Nahki.   All adds up, was hoping for 33/1 mind.  

Should put it on with Hills to balance out all the cool calculated bets that are +EV and make it a score.  

£20 Nakhi Wells, league 1 top scorer Hills 25/1.  -EV FTW

Thanks Doobs.

Done.

We have £20 WIN @ 25/1, Wm Hill, Nikhi Nakhi to be Sky Bet League One Top Scorer.

ON


03 Aug 2013 - English League 1 - Top Goalscorer - Top Goalscorer

Tip It

Nahki Wells @ 25/1

Stake : £20.00


Estimated Returns : £

520.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000481/F

[tikay]

Think we are up to date now. If I have missed anything, speak up please.

Tighty MAY be able to find time to do the Daily Report a bit later. As far as I can recall, our only bet yesterday was the Daily Milk Order, which was £20 @ 11/10, & duly delivered.

Both Tighty & I will be seriously pre-occupied between Noon & 2pm, a riot is expected at DTD as all the SPT 6-Max seats are sold & we have tons of players trying to get seats.  

After 2pm, we should be able to get bets on as normal, but the more notice you can give, the better, please.