Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

The 14/1 Essex is ridiculous value now, Essex qualify for qfs even if they lose as long as Hampshire beat Middlesex which means they are shorter than 1/4 to qualify. 10/1 everywhere looks pretty big to me still, 56% of time they will be 6/1, 25% of time they will be 17/2 and 19% the bet loses

Note the Post above, to which I never responded. At the time, Dubai proved via maths that 14/1 was excellent, & 12/1 was about right, & so I felt a little silly for getting on @ 12/1 (on my own account). I was unable to get 14/1 due to Account Restrictions.

Now the goalposts have moved a bit, & 12/1 is very good value.

My original offer, at the time, to transfer some or all of my off-thread £50 @ 12/1 to Fred stands, but it is a bit aftertimey, & I'm not sure the Auditors would agree it is right & proper. Tighty suggested at the time "half for the thread unless anyone wants to go punchier", but I never responded, as it slipped my mind.  

I don't mind either way, it is one & the same to me, so I'll go with whatever is suggested & agreed.

We have until Wednesday teatime to decide, I think.

[tikay]

The 14/1 Essex is ridiculous value now, Essex qualify for qfs even if they lose as long as Hampshire beat Middlesex which means they are shorter than 1/4 to qualify. 10/1 everywhere looks pretty big to me still, 56% of time they will be 6/1, 25% of time they will be 17/2 and 19% the bet loses

How the hell do you calculate that so easily & transparently, & yet I find it so damn hard?

Probably best not to answer that.

[tikay]

SUGGESTED BETS FOR TOMORROW
Some very good races tomorrow.  Don't make the mistake I did and assume Paddy Power still have their offer in place, because they don't on the very good races.

Suggest the following with Hills mobile (£25 each). 

2.30 Excess Knowledge £25 at 2/1
3.05 Dawn Approach £25 at evens
3.40 Parbold £25 at 2/1 (not sure why this isn't favourite).

All are best prices and short, which seems ideal.

Think we can also splash £25 with BetVictor on Toronado at 7/4 in the 3.05.  Their offer is refund if 2nd to the favourite.  Hopefully Declaration of War crushes them both in that race, but can't turn down the value.   

Ha! Love the "suggested Bets" scrolling thing.

Thanks for the early notice, as I said earlier, I'm Offline much of tomorrow, so I'll get those on now.

[tikay]

SUGGESTED BETS FOR TOMORROW
Some very good races tomorrow.  Don't make the mistake I did and assume Paddy Power still have their offer in place, because they don't on the very good races.

Suggest the following with Hills mobile (£25 each). 

2.30 Excess Knowledge £25 at 2/1
3.05 Dawn Approach £25 at evens
3.40 Parbold £25 at 2/1 (not sure why this isn't favourite).

All are best prices and short, which seems ideal.

Think we can also splash £25 with BetVictor on Toronado at 7/4 in the 3.05.  Their offer is refund if 2nd to the favourite.  Hopefully Declaration of War crushes them both in that race, but can't turn down the value.   

The three with William Hill are on, precisely as suggested.

2.30 Goodwood, £25 @ 2/1, (Guaranteed), Wm Hill, EXCESS KNOWLEDGE. MONEY BACK AS A FREE BET IF 2nd.


3.05 Goodwood, £25 @ Evens, (Guaranteed), Wm Hill,  DAWN APPROACH. MONEY BACK AS A FREE BET IF 2nd.


3.40 Goodwood, £25 @ 2/1, (Guaranteed), Wm Hill,  PARBOLD. MONEY BACK AS A FREE BET IF 2nd.


ON



 
31 Jul 13 / 00:40

Single

1

 

2:30 Goodwood  –  Win

 Excess Knowledge @ Guaranteed Price (2/1)

–

£25.00

–

O/0457483/0000485/F



31 Jul 13 / 00:40

Single

1

 

3:05 Goodwood  –  Win

 Dawn Approach @ Guaranteed Price (EVS)

–

£25.00

–

O/0457483/0000486/F



31 Jul 13 / 00:40

Single

1

 

3:40 Goodwood  –  Win

 Parbold @ Guaranteed Price (2/1)

–

£25.00

–

O/0457483/0000487/F

[tikay]

SUGGESTED BETS FOR TOMORROW
Some very good races tomorrow.  Don't make the mistake I did and assume Paddy Power still have their offer in place, because they don't on the very good races.

Suggest the following with Hills mobile (£25 each). 

2.30 Excess Knowledge £25 at 2/1
3.05 Dawn Approach £25 at evens
3.40 Parbold £25 at 2/1 (not sure why this isn't favourite).

All are best prices and short, which seems ideal.

Think we can also splash £25 with BetVictor on Toronado at 7/4 in the 3.05.  Their offer is refund if 2nd to the favourite.  Hopefully Declaration of War crushes them both in that race, but can't turn down the value.   

I'm not sure if I got this right, but if the Spready is correct we have THREE bets, each of £50 EW @ 5/1, on Declaration of War......! Would be a neat end to July if that baby scooped. A place would be OK though, let's not be too greedy.

Anyway, stop dreaming & back to business.

We have £25 @ 7/4, BetVictor, Toronado, 3.05 Goodwood, MONEY BACK IF 2nd to Favourite. 

ON

15:05TORONADO (Horse Racing Outright)Odds: 7/4 Stake: 25.00Possible Return:  68.75

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £283.23

Outstanding Bets £2,245.60

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=27

A profit of £67.73 yesterday thanks to Spirit of Law's 4th place finish at Goodwood for an each way return and 20 and 25-1, offset by a tennis loss and Casper Natscher narrow failing to voercome Garswood in the Lennox stakes

Richard Hughes had 1 winner and is one behind Ryan Moore who had two in the Goodwood Jockeys bet

I have taken Borussia Dortmund as a void

Elswhere the Rays won again, beating the Diamondbacks 5-2

As July ends, The Rays have been in record breaking form. They are 21 of 25 in July, a 84% win percentage

Not only is this their best ever month as a club but it is the best month by any MLB team since the Yankees in 1941 who in one month had a 86.4% win rate

Furthermore last night the Rays starting pticher did a complete game, the Rays seventh of the seaosn. This is more than all of the other MLB teams combined, and evidences the extent to which the Rays pitching (alongside the emergence of rookie hitter Will Myers) is carrying all before them

Lets hope the hot spell continues into the post season

Today, more Glorious Goodwood,the last of the T20 Group games at Chelmsford and Southampton and presumably the Bolt/Farah race too which will all help determine the July result

[TightEnd]

I'm not sure if I got this right, but if the Spready is correct we have THREE bets, each of £50 EW @ 5/1, on Declaration of War......! Would be a neat end to July if that baby scooped. A place would be OK though, let's not be too greedy.

three seperate bets of £25 ew at 5-1 1/5 odds 1,2,3. Basically money back if placed.

[aaron1867]

+1 to all what doors has said, will be going on the similar route today & also unsure of correct favouritism in 3.40!

I'm getting on all those + Broxbourne in the 1.55, which I think will do well, think its the best horse, 7's, but big field 

[tikay]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £283.23

Outstanding Bets £2,245.60

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=27

A profit of £67.73 yesterday thanks to Spirit of Law's 4th place finish at Goodwood for an each way return and 20 and 25-1, offset by a tennis loss and Casper Natscher narrow failing to voercome Garswood in the Lennox stakes

Richard Hughes had 1 winner and is one behind Ryan Moore who had two in the Goodwood Jockeys bet

I have taken Borussia Dortmund as a void

Elswhere the Rays won again, beating the Diamondbacks 5-2

As July ends, The Rays have been in record breaking form. They are 21 of 25 in July, a 84% win percentage

Not only is this their best ever month as a club but it is the best month by any MLB team since the Yankees in 1941 who in one month had a 86.4% win rate

Furthermore last night the Rays starting pticher did a complete game, the Rays seventh of the seaosn. This is more than all of the other MLB teams combined, and evidences the extent to which the Rays pitching (alongside the emergence of rookie hitter Will Myers) is carrying all before them

Lets hope the hot spell continues into the post season

Today, more Glorious Goodwood,the last of the T20 Group games at Chelmsford and Southampton and presumably the Bolt/Farah race too which will all help determine the July result

Wow, go the Rays! How extraordinary.

I think the Farah-Bolt thing, if you'll excuse the pun, is a non-runner. We shall see, but that is my read. The bet is if the race happens TODAY, or it becomes a void, imo.

Don't forget we have a decent bet on Essex in the T20 tonight. We also need, BEFORE tonight's game, to decide what to do with that proposed bet on Essex (outright) @ 12/1 which I am holding off-thread at present. 

[TightEnd]

In yellow with red sleeves Spirit of Law comes through to grab a place in the first at Goodwood yesterday

Click to see full-size image.

Will Myers the Rays rookie hitting sensation

Click to see full-size image.

Hughes wins on Viewpoint

Click to see full-size image.

Unless you want Dortmund each way....



Bedene struggles

[Tal]

Ooooh pictures with captions!

TfT 2.0. Marv.

[tikay]

Ooooh pictures with captions!

TfT 2.0. Marv.

Yup, proper quality enhancement. Tighty works so damn hard on this thread, much respect.

[superwomble]

Ooooh pictures with captions!

TfT 2.0. Marv.

Yup, proper quality enhancement. Tighty works so damn hard on this thread, much respect.

+1

[TightEnd]

Essex are into 4/5 best tonight and 8/11 generally

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/friends-life-t20/essex-v-surrey/winner


Whilst it is tempting to say we'll take the £50 at 12-1 for the whole shebang, I don't think you'd have had that size on thread at the time. Hence my suggestion to take half before the price moved and not after-time it

Currently 11/1 in a place and unless both of

a) they lose tonight and

b) Middlesex beat Hampshire

the price is headed south at 9.30pm. The quarter final draw is live then on SS2, too

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/friends-life-t20/winner

[tikay]

Filth from Ladbrokes imo.  Clearly not a palp because they have not offered 1/5th or 1/4 1,2,3 which would be a default for a league market.  Someone has thought about it and figured it is close to a two horse race so offered a third 1,2.  That and it was available for over a week.  Secondly, the default should be to cancel the bet not have it stand as a win only bet if you don't see the email.

+1

What would happen if you had a bet ew with Ladbrokes on a horse race or anything for that matter and took say 1/5 first 3 and then you noticed that another bookmaker was 1/4 first 4 if you then emailed them and said you were voiding the bet as you didn't realise that their place terms were not competitive. Would they allow you to void or cancel the bet? Pretty sure I know the answer.

Is there something in their t&c that allows them to cancel if not palp? Could someone who has had this bet cancelled ask them these questions?

I got a bit on in a shop

Will be interested to hear from somebody who bet with them online to any further replies they give you

It is never ever a palp situation

I actually think that anyone who punted this in a shop should be OK.

They cannot contact you, & you can hardly hold a voucher on your mantelpiece for 9 months, sweat it every week, then go to collect & they say "sorry, we made a mistake 9 months ago". Good luck them trying that.

Imagine the two likely scenarios.

Dortmund finish 2nd. You go to collect. "Sorry mate, we voided your bet 9 months ago". Behave. 

Alternatively.....

Dortmud WIN the Bundesliga thing.

You walk into the shop expecting to be paid EW, & they say "good news Sir, you had the whole lot on to win".