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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16464639 times)
ChipRich
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« Reply #48735 on: August 17, 2013, 11:46:10 AM »

Johnson out for QPR, decent chance Hoilett will play up top with Austin.

10/3 a great bet

Ooh, great news, thanks Keith.

oioiiii, 7/2 looking great. 11/4 best now.

Come on Junior lad.
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tikay
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« Reply #48736 on: August 17, 2013, 11:46:43 AM »

Now 81/3 after 11, not ideal for Essex..

The three wickets have gone to three different bowlers, including our man, so that is helpful.
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« Reply #48737 on: August 17, 2013, 11:48:32 AM »

If you have a Lads free bet, might I put forward the suggestion of betting on Europe to win the foursomes 3-1 at 11/2?

Using the prices on oddschecker, I have approximated the true odds for the matches to be  


us   tie   eur
2.26   7.5   2.36
2.01   7.5   2.7
2.31   7.5   2.3
2.83   7.5   1.95

If that's the case the actual odds of 3-1 Europe are 5.15-1

Comments on methodology welcome.




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tikay
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« Reply #48738 on: August 17, 2013, 11:50:01 AM »


82/4 now, all 4 wickets to different bowlers.

Good opportunity for Mr Azharullah to seal our bet. Essex, not so much.
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tikay
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« Reply #48739 on: August 17, 2013, 11:50:58 AM »

If you have a Lads free bet, might I put forward the suggestion of betting on Europe to win the foursomes 3-1 at 11/2?

Using the prices on oddschecker, I have approximated the true odds for the matches to be  


us   tie   eur
2.26   7.5   2.36
2.01   7.5   2.7
2.31   7.5   2.3
2.83   7.5   1.95

If that's the case the actual odds of 3-1 Europe are 5.15-1

Comments on methodology welcome.






Looks ideal for our Freebie. On my way, thank you.
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Marky147
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« Reply #48740 on: August 17, 2013, 11:53:56 AM »

If you have a Lads free bet, might I put forward the suggestion of betting on Europe to win the foursomes 3-1 at 11/2?

Using the prices on oddschecker, I have approximated the true odds for the matches to be  


us   tie   eur
2.26   7.5   2.36
2.01   7.5   2.7
2.31   7.5   2.3
2.83   7.5   1.95

If that's the case the actual odds of 3-1 Europe are 5.15-1

Comments on methodology welcome.






Looks ideal for our Freebie. On my way, thank you.


Weren't preferred odds for freebets > 8/1?

I may well be wrong, often am, but I seem to remember Doobs explaining all the maths behind it, and I thought the equity increased with the price.
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tikay
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« Reply #48741 on: August 17, 2013, 11:55:26 AM »

If you have a Lads free bet, might I put forward the suggestion of betting on Europe to win the foursomes 3-1 at 11/2?

Using the prices on oddschecker, I have approximated the true odds for the matches to be  


us   tie   eur
2.26   7.5   2.36
2.01   7.5   2.7
2.31   7.5   2.3
2.83   7.5   1.95

If that's the case the actual odds of 3-1 Europe are 5.15-1

Comments on methodology welcome.






Presumably I was too slow, or Lord Grumpy & Dubai beat us to it, but Ladbrokes now go 9/2.

Using your methodology, that kills the logic, I assume?
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doubleup
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« Reply #48742 on: August 17, 2013, 11:56:29 AM »


bollocks
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tikay
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« Reply #48743 on: August 17, 2013, 11:57:03 AM »

If you have a Lads free bet, might I put forward the suggestion of betting on Europe to win the foursomes 3-1 at 11/2?

Using the prices on oddschecker, I have approximated the true odds for the matches to be  


us   tie   eur
2.26   7.5   2.36
2.01   7.5   2.7
2.31   7.5   2.3
2.83   7.5   1.95

If that's the case the actual odds of 3-1 Europe are 5.15-1

Comments on methodology welcome.






Looks ideal for our Freebie. On my way, thank you.


Weren't preferred odds for freebets > 8/1?

I may well be wrong, often am, but I seem to remember Doobs explaining all the maths behind it, and I thought the equity increased with the price.

Thanks Marky.

It deffo increases with longer prices, but no idea at what price we ideally start the process.

Anyway, the 11/2 all went, so too late.
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tikay
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« Reply #48744 on: August 17, 2013, 11:57:38 AM »


bollocks

Quite so, quite so.

Smiley
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« Reply #48745 on: August 17, 2013, 12:04:21 PM »

If you have a Lads free bet, might I put forward the suggestion of betting on Europe to win the foursomes 3-1 at 11/2?

Using the prices on oddschecker, I have approximated the true odds for the matches to be  


us   tie   eur
2.26   7.5   2.36
2.01   7.5   2.7
2.31   7.5   2.3
2.83   7.5   1.95

If that's the case the actual odds of 3-1 Europe are 5.15-1

Comments on methodology welcome.






Looks ideal for our Freebie. On my way, thank you.


Weren't preferred odds for freebets > 8/1?

I may well be wrong, often am, but I seem to remember Doobs explaining all the maths behind it, and I thought the equity increased with the price.

yeah it does, but its difficult to find 8-1+ bets that are actually value.  So a reasonably priced bet that is def longer than it should be shouldn't be passed up imo.

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tikay
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« Reply #48746 on: August 17, 2013, 12:06:26 PM »

Mixed news in the cricket.

Essex 114/5 in 15.4 overs, they are in trouble here.

But.....

Azharullah now has 2 wickets, and is currently Top Northants Wicketerer.
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« Reply #48747 on: August 17, 2013, 12:10:42 PM »


I just got on and it's still there.

After noon it started.
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tikay
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« Reply #48748 on: August 17, 2013, 12:13:02 PM »


I just got on and it's still there.

After noon it started.

Ahh, after Midday?

You are a legend Mr S, on my way.
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« Reply #48749 on: August 17, 2013, 12:14:14 PM »


I just got on and it's still there.

After noon it started.

Ahh, after Midday?

You are a legend Mr S, on my way.

Well the Theo 8/1  FGS was anyhow.
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