Tips for Tikay

[geordieneil]

Just posted this in the Buying Stuff for Nits thread where Eso Krai is attempting to get to St Kitts the cheap way by backing a 4 - 4 draw..

Bet both to score - 8/13

I'm no betting expert so can't say if the price is right,  but I'd say that with our (Manchester United) defence as it is, and City's attack, plus the fact that we need to NOT LOSE, and the only way this ends 1-0 or any - nil,  is if we score first and manage to park the bus (which, given my earlier observations about the defence, City's forwards, and our DNA coded 'attack is the best form of defence' style is unlikely)

Thus, both teams to score seems extermely likely.

I stand to be corrected on the price.

I liked the over 2.5 goals, but was a little suprised when I checked the stats.....only 4 goals in the last  5 league matches when city are at home (5x 1-0 and a 0-0)

I quite like Vincent Company to be booked at 7/4 with Stan james

[tikay]

Just posted this in the Buying Stuff for Nits thread where Eso Krai is attempting to get to St Kitts the cheap way by backing a 4 - 4 draw..

Bet both to score - 8/13

I'm no betting expert so can't say if the price is right,  but I'd say that with our (Manchester United) defence as it is, and City's attack, plus the fact that we need to NOT LOSE, and the only way this ends 1-0 or any - nil,  is if we score first and manage to park the bus (which, given my earlier observations about the defence, City's forwards, and our DNA coded 'attack is the best form of defence' style is unlikely)

Thus, both teams to score seems extermely likely.

I stand to be corrected on the price.

I liked the over 2.5 goals, but was a little suprised when I checked the stats.....only 5 goals in the last 6 matches when city are at home (5x 1-0 and a 0-0)

I quite like Vincent Company to be booked at 7/4 with Stan james

Why, especially? Keen to find something with a bit of value, but as a total non-expert, 7/4 for a single player to be booked looks very low. (Says he who backed someone to get booked yesterday @ evens.....).

Kompany, to my naive mind, looks different class to most of his ilk, but I know nothing of his disclipinary record.

[TheDazzler]

Kompany has only 4 cards this season. Barry has 7, Yaya 6.

Edit: in league matches that is.

[david3103]

The price was my only concern really, but I've actually had a rare bet of my own on this one, I think it's as likely to come in as AA is to beat AJ (thin reference to the coup de grace at the end of yesterday's GP)

I'm a long way from Poker Superstardom. I managed to beat most of the field in what someone described, reasonably fairly, as the biggest pub poker tournament ever.
That's not to decry the event, or the people playing it, but it was a minefield with some plays that can best be described as reverse optimal.
I reserved my best run of cards for the vinegar stages late Saturday and through Sunday (until we arrived at the last eight)

I won, £10338, which was nice in itself, but the added value that DTD add to their satellites was the real win. I can win ten grand any day (well, obviously not ANY day but you know what I mean) but unless I win the Euro Millions for loads n loads I'd pretty much never ever get the opportunity to go to St Kitts and play a £3000 buy in tournament over there. That bit of yesterday is priceless. Someone offered to buy it from me last night. I laughed at them.

[geordieneil]

Kompany has only 4 cards this season. Barry has 7, Yaya 6.

Edit: in league matches that is.

Kompany has 6 yellow and 2 red

referee is pretty card happy (although Fergie slagged him off but thats the norm  )

Rooney will give him a tough time

[tikay]

The price was my only concern really, but I've actually had a rare bet of my own on this one, I think it's as likely to come in as AA is to beat AJ (thin reference to the coup de grace at the end of yesterday's GP)

I'm a long way from Poker Superstardom. I managed to beat most of the field in what someone described, reasonably fairly, as the biggest pub poker tournament ever.
That's not to decry the event, or the people playing it, but it was a minefield with some plays that can best be described as reverse optimal.
I reserved my best run of cards for the vinegar stages late Saturday and through Sunday (until we arrived at the last eight)

I won, £10338, which was nice in itself, but the added value that DTD add to their satellites was the real win. I can win ten grand any day (well, obviously not ANY day but you know what I mean) but unless I win the Euro Millions for loads n loads I'd pretty much never ever get the opportunity to go to St Kitts and play a £3000 buy in tournament over there. That bit of yesterday is priceless. Someone offered to buy it from me last night. I laughed at them.

Oh my, what a GREAT story! I love those feel-good tales. Delighted for you.

[tikay]

Kompany has only 4 cards this season. Barry has 7, Yaya 6.

Edit: in league matches that is.

Kompany has 6 yellow and 2 red

referee is pretty card happy (although Fergie slagged him off but thats the norm  )

Rooney will give him a tough time

Ahh, now I see where you are coming from, thanks.

[geordieneil]

Kompany has only 4 cards this season. Barry has 7, Yaya 6.

Edit: in league matches that is.

Kompany has 6 yellow and 2 red

referee is pretty card happy (although Fergie slagged him off but thats the norm  )

Rooney will give him a tough time

Ahh, now I see where you are coming from, thanks.

should add he was booked in the 6-1 win at old trafford and was sent off in the fa cup defeat.

its obv a very high tension match to boot.......I haven't went mad on it, just fancy rooney and him tangling a bit

[tikay]

Ta very.

I shall have my afternoon meditation session, then have a sift through what we have for tonight.

[henrik777]

Marriner averages 3.5 yellows this year and 3.59 last year. Not what i'd call card happy.

Sandy

[geordieneil]

Marriner averages 3.5 yellows this year and 3.59 last year. Not what i'd call card happy.

Sandy

so what would you call card happy?  he's 3rd highest only behind Phil Dowd 3.78 per match and Mike Dean at 3.68

Andre Marriner    19    68    27    41    23    45    3.58 per match

[superwomble]

Something of interest I've just been sent:

100% (17/17) of Man City’s home games have gone Under 6.5 Cards

94% (16/17) of Man Utd’s away games have gone Under 6.5 Cards

All of Man City’s last 5 home games have gone Under 6.5 Cards

All of Man Utd’s last 5 away games have gone Under 6.5 Cards

85% (17/20) of Andre Marriner’s games have gone Under 6.5 Cards


Suggests backing under 6.5 cards (about 5/6 I believe) should be good.

[tikay]

Something of interest I've just been sent:

100% (17/17) of Man City’s home games have gone Under 6.5 Cards

94% (16/17) of Man Utd’s away games have gone Under 6.5 Cards

All of Man City’s last 5 home games have gone Under 6.5 Cards

All of Man Utd’s last 5 away games have gone Under 6.5 Cards

85% (17/20) of Andre Marriner’s games have gone Under 6.5 Cards


Suggests backing under 6.5 cards (about 5/6 I believe) should be good.

That's interesting too. Thank you.

The market is here......


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/manchester-city-v-manchester-united/total-cards


...and a variant here....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/manchester-city-v-manchester-united/total-booking-points

[superwomble]

Should add that although the stats are good (and I so like my stats!) they don't take into account the fact that this is a potential title decider between two fierce rivals so I'm not sure the price is good enough. Saying that, I might have a little dabble on it....

[henrik777]

Marriner averages 3.5 yellows this year and 3.59 last year. Not what i'd call card happy.

Sandy

so what would you call card happy?  he's 3rd highest only behind Phil Dowd 3.78 per match and Mike Dean at 3.68

Andre Marriner    19    68    27    41    23    45    3.58 per match

The most common number for under/over in bookings greater than 3.58. A card happy ref would have numbers higher than this frequently.

Sandy