Tips for Tikay

[dreenie]

I really really fancy Al Kazeem for the 3:40 @ York Weds, best price from the looks of the local bookmakers atm is 5/4, a couple go 11/10 and evens the rest, already won 3 group 1's, and had Declaration of War behind him last time out that gave little to be desired.

Feel very strongly about this horse, and think 5/4 is a very good price for the competition it has to beat.

I would be opposing Telescope which runs same day, I don't think this is a group horse and looked so ordinary last time out.

[Tal]

Been a long season for Al Kazeem. Should be a competitive race and I don't fancy a gamble on the basis that it's the best horse on paper. Hope he wins, though.

[TightEnd]

I really really fancy Al Kazeem for the 3:40 @ York Weds, best price from the looks of the local bookmakers atm is 5/4, a couple go 11/10 and evens the rest, already won 3 group 1's, and had Declaration of War behind him last time out that gave little to be desired.

Feel very strongly about this horse, and think 5/4 is a very good price for the competition it has to beat.

I would be opposing Telescope which runs same day, I don't think this is a group horse and looked so ordinary last time out.

everyone knows its the best horse in the race, but in what way is it unexposed in terms of its price?

where's the value?

[Doobs]

I really really fancy Al Kazeem for the 3:40 @ York Weds, best price from the looks of the local bookmakers atm is 5/4, a couple go 11/10 and evens the rest, already won 3 group 1's, and had Declaration of War behind him last time out that gave little to be desired.

Feel very strongly about this horse, and think 5/4 is a very good price for the competition it has to beat.

I would be opposing Telescope which runs same day, I don't think this is a group horse and looked so ordinary last time out.

everyone knows its the best horse in the race, but in what way is it unexposed in terms of its price?

where's the value?

Not so sure there is much between that and Toronado.  There may be a lack of pace in the race and that will play into toranado's hands.  But more important is that it is very likely someone will offer a free bet for 2nd come Wednesday, so backing today is really bad.

[henrik777]

Hole in one -59.56
Pressel -50
Pettersen/Ricaro + 48.40
Nordqvist/Hedwell  +35
wie/Lang +70
Munoz/Icher -40
Pressel -30
Masson -30
Recari +66.15

We made £9.99 for the weekend on these.

Most disappointing in hindsight was not backing Hull @13/8 in the singles.

Sandy

[dreenie]

I really really fancy Al Kazeem for the 3:40 @ York Weds, best price from the looks of the local bookmakers atm is 5/4, a couple go 11/10 and evens the rest, already won 3 group 1's, and had Declaration of War behind him last time out that gave little to be desired.

Feel very strongly about this horse, and think 5/4 is a very good price for the competition it has to beat.

I would be opposing Telescope which runs same day, I don't think this is a group horse and looked so ordinary last time out.

everyone knows its the best horse in the race, but in what way is it unexposed in terms of its price?

where's the value?

There's value if it's the best horse in a race, and it's 5/4, short price I know, but it's like man united being 12 points clear with 10 games to go, your highly likely to bet against them.

Obviously if your betting big then it's worth betting otherwise not at all. I fancy Declaration of War each way at a nice 12/1. I'd much prefer to bet the straight forecast for the race if I wasn't prepared to bet big money on the favorite.

It's value when you are collecting your winnings with 2 furlongs to go...

6/1 looks good value for it to run in the Arc too. Would just be a perfect ending to a perfect season.

[McGlashan]

I'm posting here as even non boxing fans will be able to appreciate this. It's round 6 involving Fred's fighter Darren Barker and it brings a whole new meaning to 'wanting it'.

For the record it is not a low blow http://www1.skysports.com/watch/video/sports/boxing/8878685/boxing-round-of-the-year

[Ironside]

Anyone spotted any value in the city Newcastle game?

[BigAdz]

I really really fancy Al Kazeem for the 3:40 @ York Weds, best price from the looks of the local bookmakers atm is 5/4, a couple go 11/10 and evens the rest, already won 3 group 1's, and had Declaration of War behind him last time out that gave little to be desired.

Feel very strongly about this horse, and think 5/4 is a very good price for the competition it has to beat.

I would be opposing Telescope which runs same day, I don't think this is a group horse and looked so ordinary last time out.

everyone knows its the best horse in the race, but in what way is it unexposed in terms of its price?

where's the value?

There's value if it's the best horse in a race, and it's 5/4, short price I know, but it's like man united being 12 points clear with 10 games to go, your highly likely to bet against them.

Obviously if your betting big then it's worth betting otherwise not at all. I fancy Declaration of War each way at a nice 12/1. I'd much prefer to bet the straight forecast for the race if I wasn't prepared to bet big money on the favorite.

It's value when you are collecting your winnings with 2 furlongs to go...

6/1 looks good value for it to run in the Arc too. Would just be a perfect ending to a perfect season.

You obviously didnt watch DoW's last race I presume.......

[horseplayer]

A lovely goal from a world class player (at his best)

Still got it Juan

http://video.gazzetta.it/riquelme-beffa-intera-squadra/84de9cc6-08b5-11e3-8d09-6ee3f4e7bfdf

[tikay]

I really really fancy Al Kazeem for the 3:40 @ York Weds, best price from the looks of the local bookmakers atm is 5/4, a couple go 11/10 and evens the rest, already won 3 group 1's, and had Declaration of War behind him last time out that gave little to be desired.

Feel very strongly about this horse, and think 5/4 is a very good price for the competition it has to beat.

I would be opposing Telescope which runs same day, I don't think this is a group horse and looked so ordinary last time out.

Dreenie!

Good to see you here at last.

Al Kaz may well win, & I hope it does, for your sake, because I know that nothing I, or anyone else says, will change your mind, because you are as stubborn as a stubborn bag full of stubborn things.

But......you are just punting. And you will lose all your money, & forever need to withdraw the winnings from the last bet to enable you to bet in the next race. Don't go there!

Al Kaz is almost certainly correctly priced. Which means that the bookmaker has his profit guaranteed.

Imagine theoretically running that race 10,000 times, same horses, same jockeys, same prices, same track & conditions, & having £1 on Al Kaz every single time. After the 10,000 theoretical races, you will have turned your £10,000 into...........£9,000. This is as certain as losing long-term on roulette. The house has an edge. You cannot beat it if you take correct prices. You need prices that are ool, or value, or inside info, or really expert knowledge. Without any of those, you'll lose over time.

Please don't do it. Punish the bookies, don't feed them.

And it matters not one jot, iota or tickle if Al Kaz wins on Wednesday. It changes nothing. Don't follow the herd, find edges.

Our job as punters is to eke out edges - & they DO exist, as the Elders here have taught us all.

You would be mortified if you know how much money bookies make out of regular ice creams. (mug punters). 

Don't be one of them, be one of us. A winner. Truly.
 

[Ironside]

ok currently fixing my dads pc while watching sky sports news and the odds came up that newcastle are 10-1 too win tonight

surely newcastle will win that more than 1 time in 10 never mind 1 time in 11

man city have alot of new players in squad who have still too gel
wheras newcastles team is the same as last season

its also early season where the big clubs dont do as well normally
if i remember rightly both united and city nearly lost too southampton
in the early season last year and i do think the current newcastle team
is better than the southmapton eam was this time last year
wheras man city have a new manager and a team bedding in
i

still not recomending this bet for fred but mug punter me might put £2 on if i finish fixing pc in time

[tikay]

ok currently fixing my dads pc while watching sky sports news and the odds came up that newcastle are 10-1 too win tonight

surely newcastle will win that more than 1 time in 10 never mind 1 time in 11

man city have alot of new players in squad who have still too gel
wheras newcastles team is the same as last season

its also early season where the big clubs dont do as well normally
if i remember rightly both united and city nearly lost too southampton
in the early season last year and i do think the current newcastle team
is better than the southmapton eam was this time last year
wheras man city have a new manager and a team bedding in
i

still not recomending this bet for fred but mug punter me might put £2 on if i finish fixing pc in time

Don't forget you will need to make the same bet 10 times in a row, and there is still no guarantee it will meet its expectation within that ten game run.

[Ironside]

ok currently fixing my dads pc while watching sky sports news and the odds came up that newcastle are 10-1 too win tonight

surely newcastle will win that more than 1 time in 10 never mind 1 time in 11

man city have alot of new players in squad who have still too gel
wheras newcastles team is the same as last season

its also early season where the big clubs dont do as well normally
if i remember rightly both united and city nearly lost too southampton
in the early season last year and i do think the current newcastle team
is better than the southmapton eam was this time last year
wheras man city have a new manager and a team bedding in
i

still not recomending this bet for fred but mug punter me might put £2 on if i finish fixing pc in time

Don't forget you will need to make the same bet 10 times in a row, and there is still no guarantee it will meet its expectation within that ten game run.

if i made the bet 200 times under same circumstances i would  expect too show a profit at 10-1 with newcastle winning about 25+ times
very small edge i grant you plus i am a mug punter and i know it but had good return today thanks too jumping the gun
on tightys thoughts so throwing £2 away with small chance of a win and thinking i am getting some value doesnt seem too bad

[horseplayer]

Tikay cracking post to Dreenie