Tips for Tikay

[Ironside]

ok seen its 13/1 on betfair even after commision so if i thought i was getting value at 10s i have too take 13s

please no one follow as these curcumstances will not happen enough times too make it value

and i expect city too hammer newcastle i have also put a little something on lots of goals

correction i havent had the bet matched at the price i wanted earlier on the lot of goals and the

price has come in alot since then so unless my bet is matched in the next 30 minutes i will be praying for a 1-0 newcastle

[tikay]

Tikay cracking post to Dreenie

I hope she takes it in the intended spirit. She is a smashing kid, but an out an out gambler. That is meant to be a fact, not an insult. I've been there - several times, so I am not being high and mighty.

If we could convert her into a winning punter, it'd be the greatest thing ever.

[Tal]

Dreenie, as Officer Doobs says, Mr Power, Mr Hill or one of their friends will be offering some form of money back special on the day, be this Al Kazeem 11/10 and money back if second or one of the others and money back if second to Al Kazeem. Hold fire and then plough in when that offer is announced.

I'm pretty sure Doobs presses F5 all day to find out whether there's a new offer. He will inform Fred and Fred will be pleased.

This thread is full of wizards, to use a Phil Laakism; people who know this stuff inside out. When BadBeat, JoeBeevers, Horseplayer or Doobs tells us to get on a horse (I assume figuratively), there's a reason that follows which we don't necessarily understand but, hopefully, we basically follow. We know if we keep betting them and follow their rules, we will beat the bookies.

As an aside, when Dubai gives us a horse bet, the same applies but a good rule of thumb is to take a nought off his suggested bet or to have a sedative handy. It will be a cracking bet, but it will scare the bejeezus out of you.

Plenty of other wizards about in different sports, pursuits, games and...other stuff.

Glorious fun, this thread.

[Ironside]

Tikay cracking post to Dreenie

+1

totally understand the points he has made and the fred elite have made about value
but for us recreational punters betting on something you think is going too lose just because there
is value is a hard concept too get round

[Karabiner]

Tikay cracking post to Dreenie

+1

totally understand the points he has made and the fred elite have made about value
but for us recreational punters betting on something you think is going too lose just because there
is value is a hard concept too get round

What is hard to grasp?

If you bet that value thing 1000 times you will show a profit but if you back it once the likelihood is that you will lose. Better now?

[Ironside]

Tikay cracking post to Dreenie

+1

totally understand the points he has made and the fred elite have made about value
but for us recreational punters betting on something you think is going too lose just because there
is value is a hard concept too get round

What is hard to grasp?

If you bet that value thing 1000 times you will show a profit but if you back it once the likelihood is that you will lose. Better now?

we gather that but a rec. like me see a footy match and we think (or i used too) oh i think man u will whip fulham tonight we dont care about the price
someone offers us 50-1 on fulham we still want too back united as we think they will win and dont follow the long term results
and when united win we feel good as we backed the winner even though the fulham bet would of been a massive +ev and united massive -ev

[horseplayer]

I would not say its betting on something you want to lose

More betting on something that is a bigger price than you think it should be

[pleno1]

Newcastle price will rise without cabaye, but we will be a better Lexie without him he is not good away from home. Jonas in middle gives us a way better hance.

The price hanging will be value, I'm 100% certain.

[Tal]

Tikay cracking post to Dreenie

+1

totally understand the points he has made and the fred elite have made about value
but for us recreational punters betting on something you think is going too lose just because there
is value is a hard concept too get round

What is hard to grasp?

If you bet that value thing 1000 times you will show a profit but if you back it once the likelihood is that you will lose. Better now?

we gather that but a rec. like me see a footy match and we think (or i used too) oh i think man u will whip fulham tonight we dont care about the price
someone offers us 50-1 on fulham we still want too back united as we think they will win and dont follow the long term results
and when united win we feel good as we backed the winner even though the fulham bet would of been a massive +ev and united massive -ev

The simple example is the coin toss.

Fair coin. I'll give you 2/1 heads. You'll love me and never want to leave.

[Ironside]

I would not say its betting on something you want to lose

More betting on something that is a bigger price than you think it should be

i never said want too lose more think will lose

tonight i am betting on something i will think will lose but

IMHO which isnt really that good as i dont go into all the stats

i think over the course of 100 matches under same curcunstances newcastle will win about 12 times they will draw about 20 times and city will win the rest

so getting 13-1 is a value bet the downside being i wont find 200 bets like this too make it profitable

[tikay]

Newcastle price will rise without cabaye, but we will be a better Lexie without him he is not good away from home. Jonas in middle gives us a way better hance.

The price hanging will be value, I'm 100% certain.

Now we can run a competition amongst ourselves to guess what Plinop REALLY intended instead of "Lexie".

[Ironside]

Tikay cracking post to Dreenie

+1

totally understand the points he has made and the fred elite have made about value
but for us recreational punters betting on something you think is going too lose just because there
is value is a hard concept too get round

What is hard to grasp?

If you bet that value thing 1000 times you will show a profit but if you back it once the likelihood is that you will lose. Better now?

we gather that but a rec. like me see a footy match and we think (or i used too) oh i think man u will whip fulham tonight we dont care about the price
someone offers us 50-1 on fulham we still want too back united as we think they will win and dont follow the long term results
and when united win we feel good as we backed the winner even though the fulham bet would of been a massive +ev and united massive -ev

The simple example is the coin toss.

Fair coin. I'll give you 2/1 heads. You'll love me and never want to leave.

correct but a rec gambler will think ffs its been heads last 5 times in a row its got too be tails next take the tails bet ad think after it 50% of time they are a genius and 50% of time they were unlucky where as the pro gambler will bet on heads even if he thinks there is going too be a tail next and know he made a good bet if it wins or loses

[Ironside]

Newcastle price will rise without cabaye, but we will be a better Lexie without him he is not good away from home. Jonas in middle gives us a way better hance.

The price hanging will be value, I'm 100% certain.

Now we can run a competition amongst ourselves to guess what Plinop REALLY intended instead of "Lexie".

off just glad a newcastle fan thinks my 13-1 is value wold of been worried otherwise now i just need too get a neutral too agree with me
and i can watch city win knowing it wasnt the worlds worst bet lol

[Tal]

This is why they put Hot Numbers on Casino Roulette tables.

It's what I call The Law of Deal or No Deal:
"Sandra has had three reds in a row this week. She's due a blue..."

This was the stuff I was broadly ok with when I started following Fred. It wasn't long before I realised just how much I had to learn, though. Between you and me, I'll never properly learn. The lucky 15s will still get placed. The each ways in 15 horse handicaps will probably still occasionally happen. And I'll definitely still back Spurs

[Ironside]

This is why they put Hot Numbers on Casino Roulette tables.

It's what I call The Law of Deal or No Deal:
"Sandra has had three reds in a row this week. She's due a blue..."

This was the stuff I was broadly ok with when I started following Fred. It wasn't long before just how much I had to learn, though. Between you and me, I'll never properly learn. The lucky 15s will still get placed. The each ways in 15 horse handicaps will probably still occasionally happen. And I'll definitely still back Spurs

i totally understand the value concept totally struggling too find any, but try not too back my own teams as 90% of the time i do it i lose (in my head of course)
although i was slightly ecstatic at having money on aberdeen(L) and southampton(W) this weekend and turning a little profit out of my profit on sophie getting evicted in bb