I'm thinking of encouraging Fred to have some fun with an NFL season long points line but need some help with a team. As a for instance, the line for the Bills is 316-360 and you can go over, under or somewhere in that range.
I read an article suggesting that the Bills could surprise with offence this season and that's the kind of thing that's needed to get a winner.
Points lines must a nightmare for the bookies, especially with so much transition in the leagues each season. Can we get a sweat going where we have a running points total over 16 Monday mornings?
Doesn't have to be the Bills obviously. I think what we are looking for is a team with a better than expected offence in a division with overrated defences. First thought was the Bengals but I think we've kind of covered that already.
Any intelligent views?
Season Point Spreads are offered by Bet 365, they are under season specials at
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials16 games
A team expected to be poor might be offered at 325-340 points over the season and you can go over, under or in the middle of the quoted range
The New England Patriots, with Brady etc, are up around 450 points
Its basically a bet around 6/4+ each of the three options
I haven't had a chance to look at every team
I concentrated on those Where I thought the pivot price/range might be too low
I excluded teams that
- play outside in the North. Bad weather from November onwards wouldn't want me going overs on points
- play against teams that play outside in the North
- teams with 2+ top notch defenses in their division. As you ahve to play six divisional games
I included
- unfashionable teams where Bet365 might know less than I do. Thats every team actually, but humour me
- Teams that were poor last year that might turn round
- Teams that play in good weather at home
Name me three Tennessee Titans players Tal.....go on, take your time....
The Titans are the Middlesborough of the NFL. Even if you are from Middlesborough, you might not go to watch them and if you aren't, they invoke a feeling of "meh, so what" in NFL fans
They have been a struggling team
What has changed from last year?
They have invested heaviliy in their Offensive Line including a no 1 draft choice in the most brutal guard you will see on a field this year, Chance Warmack
All this is designed to create holes for their running back Chris Johnson, who has had two down years but is poised to bounce back
Their best WR Kenny Britt has been injured off and on for two years. He is a good one. they drafted Kendall Wright in the first round last year and Justin Hunter in the second round this year at WR and teams can't double cover all of them, that assumes the new ones "make it"
The QB Jake Locker is maturing
Expectations are low. I do not expect them to hit the play offs but
- they play in good weather
- they play Houston, Indy and Jags in their division. Only Houston is a top 10 defense
- their schedule, as befits a bad team last year, looks ok in terms of some high scoring games
they get the Broncos division in the AFC which has 2 bad teams in it
In bad news, they get the 49ers division in the NFC
Over 354 at 17/10
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/tennessee-titans/season-points They scored 321 points last season in winning six games
In seven of the 16 games they scored less than 20 points
reduce those and 354 or above becomes a possibility. I think if the OL really does create holes for Johnson and with Britt fully fit plus two other high draft choice receivers they might
Up to you Tal, this is the sort of process I would go through to find a team for this sort of bet
Any fool could tell you the Patriots will score 400+, but you need a surprise thats not in prices
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