Tips for Tikay

[sovietsong]

Ask for 10 and then you probably got a good bet.

Thank you. Went for 12 & agreed on 11. Pretty pleased

[sovietsong]

Ask for 10 and then you probably got a good bet.

Thank you. Went for 12 & agreed on 11. Pretty pleased

He is trying to suggest that as Liverpool are +3 now I have plus 8 end of the season.

Sigh

[Tal]

Ask for 10 and then you probably got a good bet.

Thank you. Went for 12 & agreed on 11. Pretty pleased

He is trying to suggest that as Liverpool are +3 now I have plus 8 end of the season.

Sigh

Schoolboy error

[bobby1]

Yeah I wasn't digging you out at all. Pretty big numbers on here so any sort of whipround starts adding up pretty quick, and imagine how funny it will be with 50+people trying to get on. Obviously the smart thing to do instead of naming the syndicate something gambling related would be to put the owner down in the name of an elderly woman

No worries.

Surely the registered owner would have to be Dorothy Paget?!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorothy_Paget

Betty Dintwin?

[bobby1]

A couple of things there tho Red is the nearer the goal line that Philly get the more likely Vick is going to get a rushing TD attempt, he has scored a TD in the first two games in a short yardage situation. The other thing is Kansas rush D has been very good so far this season so as good as the Philly O has looked this will be the tougher test for them.

Doesn't mean McCoy won't score the first TD but they probably impact those figures you have. Don't you think the  % of rushing plays that McCoy and Vick have had inside the 20/10/5/3 would be a better number? He could easily score thru the air  tho inside the 20/10/5 too.

Yeah I looked at another couple of stats but it is hard to get a good idea and last years stats are basically useless.  I think it is one of those spots where the bet could be incredible value or just value but it is never -ev.  I love the fact he could be a receiver too in short yardage plays.  Probably like you when I see these prices I also look to see which firms I respect are shortest and 365 are 9/2 here and fairly clued up.  Also sporting index who have a very capable compiler have him with highest td mins.  

Yes I think that's a good line really, deffo worth a bet but not a max.

[tikay]

Wil try & get caught up today, been a bit distracted since Sunday.

For those interested in NFL, Tighty will be appearing Live on Ch 861 this evening between 8pm & 10-pm marking our card on NFL betting opportunities for this weekend, & the season ahead. James Hartigan is also an NFL geek. Any questions on concrete, send them my way, obv.   

[tikay]

Fancy a few match bets on the golf this week Tony?

£50 Scott to beat Stenson at 4/5 tie a loser
£50 Donald to beat Stenson at 1.96 tie a push
£50 Mickelson to best Stenson at Evens tie is a loser

Just let me know if you want them.

cheers

Thanks Phil.

We got on all of these last night, & I will fill in the details later (which bookies etc) but we have....

Tour Championship 72 hole Match Bets.

£50 @ 4/5, Scott over Stenson (tie is a loser), Wm Hill

£50 @ 1.96, Luke Donald over Stenson (tie is a push), Bookie details to follow

£50 @ Evens, Mickelson over Stenson (tie is a loser), Bookie details to follow

ON

I placed the Scott one myself, on Wm Hill, & got the other two on via a third party, so I don't know which bookies was used yet. I had to do this a bit quietly, as I did not expect the prices to last.

We are, obviously, very much getting against Stenson this week.


 http://fansided.com/2013/09/18/henrik-stenson-concerned-pain-left-wrist/


Note "reverse carpentry"......


http://blogs.golf.com/presstent/2013/09/hurt-locker-frustrated-stenson-tears-up-conway-farms-locker.html

And maybe this is how he damaged his wrist.....


http://www.cbssports.com/golf/eye-on-golf/23681638/video-henrik-stenson-destroys-his-driver

[tikay]

Arsenal were winning to til and they conceded a dodgy penno in the 92nd minute ffs? Still, suggesting a bet and redarmi backing it up is like getting an A for effort. Spurs would never let us down like that Tal (I feel bad for suggesting Santini is Marseille manager these days, that was completely made up, but I bet there's a Spurs link somewhere)

One of those days Jeff, aka Le Gatuau, we got the wrong side of variance & coin flips everywhere. At 4/1, the bet was good, & if we could do bets like that 1,000 times, we'd be in clover.

[tikay]

Been looking at this LeSean McCoy bet and I think I possibly slightly overestimated DeSean Jackson.  Still think it is roughly neutral EV at 8-1 maybe slightly -EV but the upside is that I think I underestimated McCoy.  This is my working/thinking:

Philly figure to score the first TD about 55% of the time.  In their first two games since Chip Kelly has took over they have run the ball on about 55% of plays (I think this is the key mistake the odds compilers have made as under Andy Reid it was about 45%).  So their first TD being a running TD figures to be roughly 0.55*0.55 or about 30% of the time the first TD is a Philly rushing TD.  They only really have 3 options.  Vick, Bryce Brown and LeSean McCoy.  So far this year of 68 running plays called by Kelly 42 have gone to McCoy so we can assume he will get about 60% of running plays so of the 30% of the time they score a rushing TD then McCoy scores it 60% of the time giving us a probability he scores first of 18% or a "correct line" of 9/2.  What also hasn't been taken into consideration is that McCoy has caught 6 receptions out of 62 pass attempts from Vick this year so they are using him as a receiver too.  I am not sure what this adds but I would say there is probably a 1 or 2% chance he catches a TD as a receiver.  In short I think 13/2 is a max bet.  Even if some of my thinking is off (possibly less than 55% of their TD's are rushing for example) I don't see anyway in which he is a 13/2 shot.  Great spot by Kush this one.

If only I could analysis so clinically. Being a winning punter is not just "I fancy", it must be proper hard work.

I've read all the feedback on this, & I'm obviously convinced that it is a long term +ev Bet. We need this bet 100 times per week, that'd be job done.

As I said in my initial reply, great to have Kuku back here & in his NFL comfort zone. For thoise relatively new to Fred, Kuku really does have NFL insight. Ignore his suggestions at your peril.

We really are blessed with a great team of NFL lads here. We did very well on the last NFL Season, so we have 3 or 4 months to try & repeat the trick.

Am going to try & get a bit more on this bet, if the price is still around.

[tikay]

We have had an additional £40 @ 13/2, Wm Hill, LeSean McCoy, First TD, Philly v Chiefs, tonight.

Stan James & PP both go 7/1 now, but I'm Closed/Restricted, so went for Wm Hill @ half a point less. The price still beats BetFair considerably, who are currently just over 5/1. 

ON

20 Sep 2013 - Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles - First Touchdown Scorer

LeSean McCoy @ 13/2

Stake : £40.00

Estimated Returns : £

300.00

Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000658/F

[tikay]

Roachdale House 11/10 with Hills in the 1.40 at Ayr with the second place free bet offer. Looks like only one worth backing with offer.

Recc @ £25.

Thanks Aaron.

I was unavailable when you Posted this, & it looks a good race for this sort of bet.

However, it is now 4/5, from the 11/10 @ which you recommended it. This does NOT beat Betfair, who are currently Evens. Most bookies currently go 5/6 or 10/11.

So, what do you suggest we do? I ask the question, partly because it seems correct so to do, but you were fairly critical a few weeks ago when we took a price which had shortened since the Recommend. Genune question, your turn to be in the hot seat!
 
My concern at the moment is that it no longer beats Betfair, & is in fact considerably worse, perhaps not enough to overcome the inherent +Ev of such bets.

For £25, it is neither here nor there of course, but it's good to debate & understand what we try to do to maintain our long term profitability. Understanding these answers helps me make the decisions I have to make.

[tikay]

Re- owning a dog

Ed I would have thought worst kind of dog for a syndicate like this to own would be an exposed mid grader. Far better off taking a punt on something that could be anything and trying to land a gamble of some sort. Exposed graders are obv fine for people that want to attend the track regularly and watch the dog race but for a gambling syndicate would be my last choice of dog. If get enough people can club together and actually get something that has a chance to be decentish, on sky etc

I tend to buy this. I was a bit rushed yesterday, but on reflection, you are right.

It is unlikely ever to happen, but if it did, buying an unraced pup & then seeing how it progresses would be the nut thing.

One other thing - if we did buy a dog, the danger is that we would back it because we own it. A very bad thing.

A ton of fun though, no doubt about that.

[tikay]

Yeah I wasn't digging you out at all. Pretty big numbers on here so any sort of whipround starts adding up pretty quick, and imagine how funny it will be with 50+people trying to get on. Obviously the smart thing to do instead of naming the syndicate something gambling related would be to put the owner down in the name of an elderly woman

BOOM!

I hereby name the dog.....

Chompy

[aaron1867]

I don't like 4/5, if price goes out again, happy to get on.

[tikay]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £699.31

Outstanding Bets £2916.60

Free bets to use: ONE William Hill by 20th Sept

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=29

A loss of £110 yesterday with five losing bets. This was a touch unfortunate though, as a winning day was on the cards with Arsenal winning 2-0 in injury time at Marseille, and a £100 profit about to be booked when Ayew scored in the 92nd minute to turn it all around

Elsewhere losses on Brighton (on the right lines, they drew at QPR), Wentworth (backed the wrong one) and Dick Van Dyke in the San Siro completed the day

In other football, our 66/1 bet on Napoli for the Champions League got of to a flyer in their very tough group with a 2-1 win over Dortmund. According to oddschecker, 98% of bets in the both teams to score market were on Yes at 8/13!

Reading beat Leeds 1-0 with Le Fondre scoring in injury time, so that was a boost to the Reading Championship bet

by the by a Messi hat trick after Ronaldo's the night before mean both are now 7/4 joint for the Champions League top scorer. Each way opportunities long gone!

Away from football, in cricket Rogers only scored 8 in a low scoring game at Headingley and Katich is not playing for Lancashire. Last rites on both bets!

In baseball the Tampa Bay Rays won a wild one against the Rangers. 2-0 down they recovered to take the game into extra innings then won in the 12th to keep hold of the top wild card spot

The Orioles beat boston, the Indians beat the Royals and so the daily update on the wild card positions is, with 10 mgames or so to go

Tampa Bay Rays    83    68    
Texas Rangers            82    69    
------------------------------------
Cleveland Indians    82    70    
Baltimore Orioles    81    70    
New York Yankees    80    72    
Kansas City Royals    80    72

  

98% of the bets were on "BTS - YES"?

Wow. Hard to believe, but presumably true.

As to Ronaldo/Messi being Top CL Scorers @ 7/2 or 4/1 or whatever, Phil floated that when I was AWOL, but what a spot that was.

Napoli? I know one victory against a 10 man team does not mean a deal, but the price is now generally 28/1. Pie for dinner.