Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Coral seem a bit slow reacting to the Cardiff news

Mackay still 20/1 with them for next to go for those who havent heard

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/cardiff-city-boss-malky-mackays-6158805#.UlR-bmt4mbE.twitter

Notes on above :

Iain Moody suspended by madcap owner Vincent Tan

Moody by Mackays own admission responsible for majority of his signings both at watford and at cardiff

"Among the City stars Moody was responsible for bringing to the club have been England international Steven Caulker, Chilean midfield warrior Gary Medel, French right-back Kevin Theophile-Catherine and £8million Dane Andreas Cornelius. He also helped Mackay snap up the likes of Fraizer Campbell, Jordon Mutch and Kim Bo-Kyung."

23-year-old Kazakhstani  Alisher Apsalyamov has taken over (been shadowing Moody for a few weeks) according to his own profile on social media has no football background whatsoever

I find it hard to believe Mackay will walk from a premiership job but this ontop of the continuing non payment of promised bonuses to players from last season it is starting to indicate Tan might want him gone anyway.

Have had a very small bet at 20/1

Seems a decent bet as owner seems a nutcase and nutcases fire managers that seem to be doing well and Cardiff aren't even doing all that well.

[horseplayer]

would not get involved now even at 10/1

Could be smoke without fire but i do no MM really likes having Moody alongside as he does a lot of the "dirty" work leaving MM to coach the squad

Even if he stays i would personally be keen to oppose them at least short term

[redarmi]

Another recommend on Bwins early prices for the week afters NFL.  The Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Bucs and are 9.5 point favourites.  The Falcons have lost Julio Jones their best WR for the rest of the season.  In addition to this their other decent WR Roddy White is playing at 60-70% fit and basically admitted last week that he is only really playing as he has an unbroken appearances record he wants to continue.  Matt Ryans other main target Tony Gonzalez has also announced he will be retiring at the end of the year and appears to be on the downgrade and is getting double and triple teamed and these injuries will make that easier.  They could run more but they really don't have much of  a run offense.  the Bucs have had their problems to start the season but they seem to be moving on now they have traded QB Freeman who was the source of a lot of the problems.  I think the TB Bucs +9.5 10/11 is a very good bet against a team with serious, serious offense problems.

[Chompy]

Poshies never out of second gear to beat the Bees tbh

Now around 4/1 for silverware. Valoooooo!

Given your initial comments and the fact Wolves are now out do you think the 4-1 would represent value?

Nah, can leave at that price. We still have to win four matches to TID. 5/1 in a couple of places feels about right. Just need to swerve Swindon and Orient in the draw on Saturday now, although we'd be favourites to beat either.

[tikay]

Another recommend on Bwins early prices for the week afters NFL.  The Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Bucs and are 9.5 point favourites.  The Falcons have lost Julio Jones their best WR for the rest of the season.  In addition to this their other decent WR Roddy White is playing at 60-70% fit and basically admitted last week that he is only really playing as he has an unbroken appearances record he wants to continue.  Matt Ryans other main target Tony Gonzalez has also announced he will be retiring at the end of the year and appears to be on the downgrade and is getting double and triple teamed and these injuries will make that easier.  They could run more but they really don't have much of  a run offense.  the Bucs have had their problems to start the season but they seem to be moving on now they have traded QB Freeman who was the source of a lot of the problems.  I think the TB Bucs +9.5 10/11 is a very good bet against a team with serious, serious offense problems.

Morning Stu, & thanks.

We took £110 @ 1.91.

The game takes place on 20th October.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Coral seem a bit slow reacting to the Cardiff news

Mackay still 20/1 with them for next to go for those who havent heard

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/cardiff-city-boss-malky-mackays-6158805#.UlR-bmt4mbE.twitter

Notes on above :

Iain Moody suspended by madcap owner Vincent Tan

Moody by Mackays own admission responsible for majority of his signings both at watford and at cardiff

"Among the City stars Moody was responsible for bringing to the club have been England international Steven Caulker, Chilean midfield warrior Gary Medel, French right-back Kevin Theophile-Catherine and £8million Dane Andreas Cornelius. He also helped Mackay snap up the likes of Fraizer Campbell, Jordon Mutch and Kim Bo-Kyung."

23-year-old Kazakhstani  Alisher Apsalyamov has taken over (been shadowing Moody for a few weeks) according to his own profile on social media has no football background whatsoever

I find it hard to believe Mackay will walk from a premiership job but this ontop of the continuing non payment of promised bonuses to players from last season it is starting to indicate Tan might want him gone anyway.

Have had a very small bet at 20/1

Seems a decent bet as owner seems a nutcase and nutcases fire managers that seem to be doing well and Cardiff aren't even doing all that well.

Owner seems a nutcase? Seems a bit harsh, Stu......

[tikay]

Looks like a good fade, Vale are down 0-1 into the 60th minute.

Thanks Ant.

Luckily, we swerved it, but no matter, we win, we lose, da de da.

That WAS, it seems, a great bet you gave us last week, & I swerved it - as did most others - & you dished up a 9/2 winner.

The thing I'm keen to avoid doing again what what happened in the early days of Fred, & still happens occasionally - backing tips, hunches, I fancy sorta thing.  It cost us - literally - thousands of pounds, & I've tried to learn from it. I compounded the errors by backing these tips, of course, because at the time, I knew no better. I still make that mistake from time to time - I placed some BAD bets last Saturday for example - but we can do better than that.  

As a general rule, if the bookies put a price out there for a UK football game, that price is right, or close to right. Early prices CAN be wrong, one Firm can be OOL, or they can be slow to react to a material change (the Elders ALL work that latter angle repeatedly), but generally, we can assume those prices are right. And the bookies are working to a margin of about 12%. If we are to be profitable punters, it stands to reason that we have to find a way to beat that 12%, so we need to start with the assumption that the price is 15% wrong in the first place. That can happen - but not often.  This mainly refers to Outrights rather than sub-markets. Although one is derived from the other, there can be anomalies, witness the "Time of First Booking" thing that Camel spotted. Early prices can often be wrong, too.

Unless we take that line, we are just punting, like the bloke who stands in the Ladbrokes shop on a Saturday afternoon.  

The big winners here are the guys who quickly spot prices that are wrong - as you did with Cray Wanderers on Saturday! Loads of examples in the thread of these shrewd operators.  

Anyway, well done on Saturday, & thanks for getting involved.

[horseplayer]

The big MM looks to be heading to the 2/1 mark by lunchtime

Shame the betfair market is non existent

[tikay]

The big MM looks to be heading to the 2/1 mark by lunchtime

Shame the betfair market is non existent

Holy moly. Hope you got some of that 20/1 John.

[horseplayer]

literally pennies im afraid

Having dwelt on it overnight despite losing his main colleague i cant see him walking.

Suppose part of it is that Jol finally got a win (and the supposed new coach has gone to Dubai) as did Hughton and Pardew.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £143.60

Outstanding Bets £2962.50

Free bets Two William Hill use by 13th Oct

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A loss of £80 yesterday as Boston beat Tampa Bay 3-1 last niht to clinch the ALDS 3-1 and knock the Rays out of the playoffs, meaning two £40 bets, on the books  since April, fell in the post-season

Elsewhere Peterborough beat Brentford in the JPT to advance to the last sixteen. Draw on Saturday with Hells bells on Soccer AM.

Kidderminster beat Forest Green 4-1 last night to go second in the Conference table. Kiddy +7 are 8 points ahead of scratch Forest Green. They'll be there or thereabouts in the handicap market at the end of the season. Everyone currently chasing Cambridge Utd, 8points clear at the top of the conference

I missed at the weekend, spinning plates, that Vettel could clinch the F1 WDC this weekend in Japan were he to win and Alonso finish outside the top 8. Realistically the bets will be winners in two races time

[TightEnd]

Tomorrow Australia start a short tour of India with a T20 International in Rajkot ahead of an ODI Series.

extracts from my stuff elsewhere

"One other market and price that took my eye was the 8/1 available with Ladbrokes on there being a century in the match. Two very powerful batting sides here, in an era where the incidence of higher T20 scores is rising. In Rajkot’s only International match so far (it being a new ground) there was an 85, 75 and seven scores in total over 40.

8/1 is a very fair price for a century in this game"

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-australia/t20-series/india-v-australia-%5Bonly-t20%5D/century-in-match


the only International match at Rajkot's new stadium so far http://www.espncricinfo.com/india-v-australia-2013-14/engine/match/565812.html

I would expect good batting conditions again

Batting line ups something like

Dhawan
Kohli
Raina
R Sharma
Yuvraj
Dhoni
Jadeja

Finch
Marsh
Bailey
Watson
Voges

etc

I think these days, with bigger bats, stronger batsmen, changes to playing conditions (one more player has to be inside the circle for more of the 20 overs) then you might see a century in an International T20 less than once in 8 matches given ceteris paribus: reasonable weather, fair pitch etc

tenner or so, for this, if its a yes

[tikay]

Tomorrow Australia start a short tour of India with a T20 International in Rajkot ahead of an ODI Series.

extracts from my stuff elsewhere

"One other market and price that took my eye was the 8/1 available with Ladbrokes on there being a century in the match. Two very powerful batting sides here, in an era where the incidence of higher T20 scores is rising. In Rajkot’s only International match so far (it being a new ground) there was an 85, 75 and seven scores in total over 40.

8/1 is a very fair price for a century in this game"

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-australia/t20-series/india-v-australia-%5Bonly-t20%5D/century-in-match


the only International match at Rajkot's new stadium so far http://www.espncricinfo.com/india-v-australia-2013-14/engine/match/565812.html

I would expect good batting conditions again

Batting line ups something like

Dhawan
Kohli
Raina
R Sharma
Yuvraj
Dhoni
Jadeja

Finch
Marsh
Bailey
Watson
Voges

etc

I think these days, with bigger bats, stronger batsmen, changes to playing conditions (one more player has to be inside the circle for more of the 20 overs) then you might see a century in an International T20 less than once in 8 matches given ceteris paribus: reasonable weather, fair pitch etc

tenner or so, for this, if its a yes

ceteris paribus?

Gotta have some of that.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Will Update the "BETS" thread now Rich, got a bit behind yesterday & last night, what with this & that.....

[tikay]

Go Janet!


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24453026

Click to see full-size image.