Tips for Tikay

[a.sparrow]

Hi Adz, no help on your question, but one i would like to put to you or anyone else who would like to comment.  I remember you saying Mount Athos was being aimed at the melbourne cup?  I think i've even got a bet on it somewhere after you told me.  Anyway more recently I've been nudged towards Simenon for it,  I notice he hasnt yet mate the cut 23rd in line from the 24 so far, but could be over taken in the seeding yet.

Richard Huges has been booked for the ride and according to a few articles i've read Simenon's preparations have been going well.

So with this in mind, do we think the standout 20/1 with 365 is value?

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/international/melbourne-cup/winner

[Marky147]

No idea Adz tbh, big jump handicaps not my thing at all. Neil C the man for the job.

I'm more interested in Paddy Power's 7-1 about Rylan Clark taking down I'm a Celebritah. He was a 4-1 with Ladbrokes in March to be in the jungle; if he goes in he wins. End of. 4-6 would be valoo.

A bit of research dug up that he flew out to LA yesterday. US X Factor maybe?

Can't think for a second that Cowell would even entertain having his boat beamed out all over the US!

I might just punt the £2.95 that they'll probably lay me on Celebrity in case he does go in

[Bad Beat]

 Hi Adz,

 I can't say I've given the race too much thought. Has it been suspended because the weights re coming out in the morning or was that happening yesterday?

 I think Johns Spirit went up 10lbs for that pretty impressive win. I think it seems to have sorted out it's jumping, it loves decent ground and it seems to like Cheltenham. Couldn't put you off with the 1234 each-way always a good thing.

 I was interested also in Ballynagour which ran poorly at the festival. I think this is one that really goes well fresh and it's been aimed at this race.

 

[BigAdz]

Thanks Neil.

As ever, bow to your superior. I think you're right about it being a decs stage.

Also when discussing it with a friend with horses with Pipe, he confirmed, as ever that Pipe is gearing up half his stable for the PP meeting. Shall leave the recommend but have put it out there for those interested, and shall have a few squid on Ballynagour too.

[BigAdz]

Ali.

Take no notice of me on Melbourne Cup. I have lost all objectivity on the rest of the field and as Marky will confirm I have gone Mt Athos crazy and have far too much on him.
Things were out of hand a long time ago but Williams riding Dandino to second last week and easily flicking off the offer to ride him as he had secured MA, has just sucked me in further.
Roll on the 5th.

[a.sparrow]

Lol sounds like you are confident then, maybe a little top up on mount athos is due and have simenon on as the saver

[tikay]

The Bailey Bet

I know many Freddies are on that George Bailey bet at fancy prices, & we head into the penultimate game today in good shape.

The match has just begun, & is being shown NOW, on Sky Sports 1.

Real time scores can also be seen on cricinfo.....

http://www.espncricinfo.com/india-v-australia-2013-14/engine/current/match/647259.html

India won the toss, & elected to field. To my untrained eye, the pitch looks a good batting track.

We also need OVER 9.5 sixes.

Orf we go......

[BigAdz]

Lol sounds like you are confident then, maybe a little top up on mount athos is due and have simenon on as the saver

Confiident......no no.

Optimistic, excited, hopeful...........Hell Yeah!!!

[millidonk]

Watching cricket for like the 3rd time in my life.

Surprised Bailey is 4th to bat. Thought the top boys normally go first 3

[tikay]

Watching cricket for like the 3rd time in my life.

Surprised Bailey is 4th to bat. Thought the top boys normally go first 3

I think in ODI that the middle order need to be good. The openers take the early attack & pace, & lay the innings foundation, & behind that the big hitters can then get to work.

Australia are now two wickets down, after 11 Overs. To my mind, the game is setting itself up perfectly for Bailey's Bash.

[tikay]

I think I have one of the bets of the year

Sigh. Set myself up to knock myself down....


India v Australia 7 match ODI series starts tomorrow

George Bailey Top Australia Run Scorer 6/1 Stan James (11/2 BetVictor)

The seven matches are as follows

Sunday 13th October 2013 Pune
Wednesday 16th October 2013 Jaipur
Saturday 19th October 2013 Mohali
Wednesday 23rd October 2013 Ranchi
Saturday 26th October 2013 Cuttack
Wednesday 30th October 2013 Nagpur
Saturday 2nd November 2013 Bangalore

These are the top two rated ODI sides in the world, yet of vastly differing experience. Australia arrived in India hoping for a hat-trick of ODI series wins here but the 14-member squad has a combined experience of 627 ODI caps going into the series, less than the combined caps of India's three most experienced cricketers in the squad: MS Dhoni, Yuvraj Singh and Suresh Raina. Australia are also missing their injured captain Michael Clarke

This should be a high scoring series especially with the Indian top six so powerful and all capable of scoring quickly. Australia also have batsemn in form such as Aaron Finch and George Bailey but anticipating both top sixes putting up big totals, the balance of the series is likely to come down to the strengths of the respective bowling attacks. Australia's strength is seam, India's in slow bowling and of course the prevailing conditions should favour India's attack.

These reasons are why India are quoted at 2/7 best to win the seven match series, so the hunt is on for better value ways of playing the series.

For the Australians, with a line up more reliant than India on all-rounders, the feasible options in the Top Batsman market are few and amount to Shane Watson, Aaron Finch and George Bailey. By far the best option at the prices (Watson 2/1, Finch 7/2, Bailey 6/1) is captain Bailey, who showed in England that he is capable of big scores in this format. 6/1 is a really attractive bet

If you cannot get the 6-1 with Satan, 11/2 BetVictor slightly smaller is fine


Bailey has played 29 ODIs has over 1000 runs with a hundred and 8 fifties

Anything close to 6-1 is tremendous value in this market

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-australia/odi-series/india-australia-odis/top-australia-batsman


The Aus top six

Watson
Finch
Hughes
Bailey
Maxwell
Voges

really only Watson and Finch are runners. Hughes has technical deficiencies. Maxwell has never produced Internationally, Voges is a nudge and nurdle all-rounder

I can't make Bailey more than 4-1 here

BUMPED for Milly & others, this was the Recommend. Note the enboldenment.

[tikay]

Scores prior to today were.....



GJ Bailey (Aus)    318
GJ Maxwell (Aus) 179    
AJ Finch (Aus)    165    
PJ Hughes (Aus)  163
JP Faulkner (Aus) 114    
AC Voges (Aus) 101
SR Watson (Aus) 86



Hughes & Finch were both out cheaply today, for 13 & 20 respectively. By my reckoning, neither can now realistically beat Bailey, & Bailey is yet to bat.

[millidonk]

Watching cricket for like the 3rd time in my life.

Surprised Bailey is 4th to bat. Thought the top boys normally go first 3

I think in ODI that the middle order need to be good. The openers take the early attack & pace, & lay the innings foundation, & behind that the big hitters can then get to work.

Australia are now two wickets down, after 11 Overs. To my mind, the game is setting itself up perfectly for Bailey's Bash.

Very good explanation sir Teeks, seems these elders are rubbing off on you.

[tikay]

Watching cricket for like the 3rd time in my life.

Surprised Bailey is 4th to bat. Thought the top boys normally go first 3

I think in ODI that the middle order need to be good. The openers take the early attack & pace, & lay the innings foundation, & behind that the big hitters can then get to work.

Australia are now two wickets down, after 11 Overs. To my mind, the game is setting itself up perfectly for Bailey's Bash.

Very good explanation sir Teeks, seems these elders are rubbing off on you.

Lol, wait until the Cricket Chaps wake up & explain it properly.

Now, back to your Diary, & write some stuff.

[TightEnd]

There were no bets completed yesterday, so its as you were on the daily report front

We have a bit of a dud in Nagpur for the sixes bet, the pitch is slower than anticipated and the boundaires bigger..India playing three spinners. That bet needs Australia to get 300 and set up an agressive chase