Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

FWIW my "sacks" bet started very well, with the first play after the kick off return being a sack. I was expecting Skybet to pay out immediately after that, sending me an email "Dear Mr Tal, you've nailed it and we are in your debt - literally - so well played, sir".

There then sadly only followed three more sacks in the entire game, so it fell two short of the desired total. Rats.

[tikay]

NBA don't half get a bad time on this thread....only £50 to go and golf can get the same treatment as the biggest loser and north of £1k down etc etc. Think some of the staking in those days left a little to be desired, as did the betting for value process.

Just double checked out MCW Rookie of the Year bet and we only got £5 on at 12/1, original rec was £10 at 14/1, my fault, shoulda revisited as promised once the price went back to 14s and 16s and I defo really fancied it the week before the season when 14s was still about, as I mentioned at the dogs (and wrote on BettingOn.com, too scared to post link to it this season). Current price? 8/13....mind u we've lost from here before, sigh.

Tiddle-arsing £5 at 12s will at least stop your north of £1000 line I spose!

I tend to agree.  I don't think it is anything specific about the sport per se that means we won't beat it and there is absolutely no reason for NBA lines to be sharper than NFL or football numbers for example.  It was just that we during that period we didn't apply as rigorous value criteria as we do now.  There are some good spots in the NBA the same as any sport and you can run bad in any sport and it doesn't really mean anything.  I will give you an example.  Over the last 2.5 months I have made just under 3% on my own betting over 850ish bets.  My main sports in that time have been MLB, college football, NFL, football and NBA.  In one of those sports I have had over 200 bets and am holding 18% yet in another I have had over 250 bets and am losing 11%.  I happen to consider the latter sport my strongest sport.  Should I be worried?  Possibly.  Maybe my own perception and overconfidence is forcing me into having too many bets but irrespective I have clearly run horrifically badly.  If I gave up on the sport I could easily be giving up a source of income which makes no sense so I just have to tough it out.  You absolutely have to keep records and you absolutely have to review them but to make big decisions based on fairly small sample sizes is, imo, a mistake.  We have a big enough Fred sample now to know when we are likely to have an edge and when is the time to fire and when not to and I am not sure a small sport sample should affect or change that.  In the long run these things tend to even themselves out.

Thanks Stu, I'll mostly address the enboldened part, then I'll add our Golf numbers into the debate.

We did not apply - then - adequate or rigorous value criteia. I agree. It's a learning curve for me, more than anyone, & I have to make the final decision, always. I'm not embarrassed we done so poorly, but I am determined to learn the lessons. This - to me - is a big enterprise, we've invested north of £80,000 in Fred overall, that's a serious number, & I believe good management & financial techniques must be bought to bear with numbers of that magnitude, I'm not Degen Dave Nich, I'm Nitty Kendall.

I also agree the sample size is small, but....the vast majority of the bets were flips, 50/50 shots, (or more correctly, approx 47%/47% shots). The neg ROI is over 30%, on what amounts to even money flips. We need to do better than that.  I accept "sample size", but surely you can see why I'm concerned? I used to win at NLH poker, I fell behind, & lost my ability, so I decided to stop playing it, & play another variant. Now I'm a winner. That is because I self-examine, critically, all the time. I very rarely blame luck, either, & if you read the Poker Staking Threads it'll make your eyes bleed to see alll the confidence before every Stake, & the hard-luck stories afterwards.

Golf has lost nearly as much as NBA, but the devil is in the detail.

Golf betting (outright, where most of our bets are, not sub-markets), is high-variance by nature, we can lose every week for a year & still bink a 66/1 shot. Our Golf ROI is "only" (ugh) -15%, but on 3 times more bets, & 2 & a half times more money staked. I guess we could spin both those sets of stats any way we wanted......

Now the psychological side.

I understand golf, I played it for many a year, & have read damn near every golf book published. I understand the terminology, the rules, the lingo, the very nature of it, & I can fully comprehend any Golf Recommend.

With NBA, when Mr Recommend comes along & starts talking double dribble dunks, deeeefence & stuff, I don't understand a word of it. I want to know the VALUE criteria, not whether the Heat have the D to beat the Lakers O, whatever that means.

So it's natural that I am less concerned about golf, though it may also be an error, of course.

So its an interesting one, but no matter what the sport is, I truly believe we should look at our worst performers, & thats all I am doing. Correctly, imo.

We had BIG problemns with F1, too, but we decided that, as things stand, it was a lottery, so we mostly gave up, or adapted our approach. As a result, we have done better lately on F1.

I've no idea when the NBA Season starts again, but if we are to punt it regularly, we'll need some well explained Value Criteria this time, or we'll not be getting on. The lessons have been learned, I hope, but I can't be a thumb-sucker in such matters, & stand by & watch things go wrong without trying to do something.

Good debate, by the way, & I appreciate the comments from UK's Poker no 282 (two behind me) & yourself.

[tikay]

FWIW my "sacks" bet started very well, with the first play after the kick off return being a sack. I was expecting Skybet to pay out immediately after that, sending me an email "Dear Mr Tal, you've nailed it and we are in your debt - literally - so well played, sir".

There then sadly only followed three more sacks in the entire game, so it fell two short of the desired total. Rats.

God Bless Sky Bet.

[Tonji]

Has Fred ventured into Winter Sports? (I don't recall any).

Winter Olympics next year, a whole new world of obscure betting (to us Brits)  , unless your Norwegian or Canadian.

Alpine Skiing, Ski Jumping, Biathlon, Cross Country Skiing, Ski Jumping, Luge, Nordic Combined...endless sport on snow. Winter correspondent needed!

[Tal]

Let's take one each and report back in a week

[tikay]

Let's take one each and report back in a week

Or we could have bets about different types of cardboard?

[Karabiner]

I'll volunteer to be ice-hockey corry as I know most of the rules.

Did you know that defenders are taught to "take out the man" rather than concentrate on the puck?

And when I say take out I mean clatter, preferably into the boards rather like the optimum hit on the dodgems.

[Tal]

Like it, Karabiner. In fact, I'd go as far as to say Ralph the Enforcer has an ice rink to it.

[The Camel]

Even though the sample size is relatively small, golf betting will always face more variance than NBA.

Hence we should be more worried about a high negative ROI in the latter.

[horseplayer]

If you bet English, Spanish and German teams in games following a Europa tie you'd have an ugly -33.4% ROI this season (using Asian hcaps)

Following the trend of recent seasons

[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

Don't think we have had a bet on the RLWC yet. Tonight the CESM's host Samoa. Samoa scored 24 points past New Zealand and are a decent team. I expect them to comfortably beat the French and Samoa should enjoy the weather in Perpignan more than that up t'North.

I think the price for this man to score tonight is too high at 4/5.

Suggest £20 on Anthony Winterstein to score anytime @ 4/5 with Betvictor.

[tikay]

Evening Mr T.

Don't think we have had a bet on the RLWC yet. Tonight the CESM's host Samoa. Samoa scored 24 points past New Zealand and are a decent team. I expect them to comfortably beat the French and Samoa should enjoy the weather in Perpignan more than that up t'North.

I think the price for this man to score tonight is too high at 4/5.

Suggest £20 on Anthony Winterstein to score anytime @ 4/5 with Betvictor.

Thanks hector.

We have had a RLWC bet on "Top Australian RLWC Scorer", but little else besides at this juncture.

We are all aboard Antonio, oh, my, Antonioooooooo

BET PLACED

[a.sparrow]

Evening Mr T.

Don't think we have had a bet on the RLWC yet. Tonight the CESM's host Samoa. Samoa scored 24 points past New Zealand and are a decent team. I expect them to comfortably beat the French and Samoa should enjoy the weather in Perpignan more than that up t'North.

I think the price for this man to score tonight is too high at 4/5.

Suggest £20 on Anthony Winterstein to score anytime @ 4/5 with Betvictor.

Thanks hector.

We have had a RLWC bet on "Top Australian RLWC Scorer", but little else besides at this juncture.

We are all aboard Antonio, oh, my, Antonioooooooo

BET PLACED

How many tries do you think Samoa will score?  How many tries do you think will be in the match?

I don't know much about the sport, but if you think 4 tries is a big number for this game, and our man will score in one of the first four tries, is it worth punting him each way at 8/1 with 1/4 odds top 4 ?  Getting 2/1 on the anytime try then with the possibility of scooping first try too. 

What are your views on that Hector?

[BigAdz]

Not sure how you can even compare a coin flip sport with one that requires 3 days of study and then 4 days to land your bet!!

But seriously, these sports that have both sides of the coin at 10/11, 5/6 etc take some proper proper knowledge to stay ahead of the game, with golf, even a mug like me can make money if the pin lands in the right place occasionally(along with about 30 hours viewing each week )

[scotty2hatty]

Would like to suggest a couple of selections for the Eclipse greyhound competition that is currently taking place at Nottingham. Two of the three selections I popped in the greyhounds thread have made it to the semi-finals and I now think we should back them for the competition.

The first of those is Sawpit Sensation who was 8/1 pre-comp but is now 12/1 with Totesport/Betfred. I don't fully understand the drift and thus think he is a must bet.

Finished 2nd in his first round heat behind the pacey Exocet but Exocet got a clear run and in the better races (semis and finals) I think the pacey unseeded types tend to take a lot of each others room so finding a good wide seed is always handy.  Sawpit, a wide, tends to come from off the pace a little but also has the odd good break on his record.

Sawpit is the defending champion, having won last year after finishing 2nd in his first round heat and his semi-final. He is also a Notts specialist, holding the 500m (Eclipse distance) track record, a record he set in the final last year. He ran a similar time in the opening round this year that he did in the opening round last year so potentially we will get similar progress.

In his semi-final, he needs to finish in the top 2 to progress to the final and I expect him to follow round whoever leads (Calzaghe Davy and/or Jaytee Lightning) before either winning or finishing a close second. With the each way terms on offer we'd then have 3/1 he finishes in the top 3 of the final with a real strong chance of the 12/1 landing.

The second selection is Airlie Impact who is 25/1 with 365, and Tote/BetFred.

One of my favourite greyhounds of the year and a great competition dog (well he enters a lot!) who runs many tracks well and is very consistent. Think a small bet at the price is in order as I think he has a good chance of qualifying from his semi with the inconsistent Bridge Honcho on his direct left in T5 and a battle between Redbrick Stuart and Bold Three on the inner likely.

Definitely in good form, Airlie also has a number of very good sectionals on his record from Notts. Some of his trial work at Notts is as fast as anything in the first round.

Recommend £15EW Sawpit Sensation @ 12/1
Recommend £7.50EW Airlie Impact @ 25/1

Thanks Scott, just seen this, but I got the prices, so no harm done, & they look two lovely bets at the prices.

When is the next round, please? Be good to sweat these properly.

Thanks again.

2 BETS PLACED

Semis Friday. Final on Wed 20th, on Sky.