Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Tighty, a few days ago, I posted about the Chiefs outright. Is it a bad bet?

Thought you were at Cheltenham today?

I was.

Could have gone better.

[Tal]

Doobs, we spend plenty of time disagreeing over Strictly and time after time you end up being proved right. At some point, people will start drawing conclusions from that, but we can still put it down to variance for now. Right?

Patrick has so much fluidity in his body when he danced the samba tonight and he had so much content in the dance it is clear his partner has lots of confidence in his ability (compare to the dances where they stand still while the lady wears nothing and wiggled around them). I personally don't think - bear with me - he performs the latin dances well enough, in that he often had this look on his face where he's trying to remember the next step. His ballroom frame won't win him the competition, either, so he has a way to go.

I'm fascinated by the market move for him.

[Tal]

...and I love getting on Ashley Taylor-Dawson. It was, for me, his best dance of the series tonight. I love a good paso, even if it was about the wild west. Not a clue. He has improved as much as anyone but I don't think that Joe Public realises that, because he was towards the top at the start. Not a question in my mind that he is better than Patrick, plus he has an excellent choreographer in Ola.

Finally, I like Susanna, but I LOVE Kevin.

[TightEnd]

How did Natalie do?

Got to be fearing a Susannah Reid does Chris Hollins most popular celeb takes the victory haven't we?

[Tal]

How did Natalie do?

Got to be fearing a Susannah Reid does Chris Hollins most popular celeb takes the victory haven't we?

Tighty, Susannah's paso might have gone top three Strictly dances of all time. I'm talking Ramprakash's Argentine Tango.

Natalie got 39 also, btw. If fit, she will continue to impress. We have debated whether she will still be a crowd favourite after all these weeks. Won't matter until the final if she keeps dancing like that.

Abbey got three tens and a seven (yes, Craig) for a spritely quickstep. She has a long stride, which is rare to see this early in the competition, especially in a quickstep, where you obviously don't have much time to get your foot to travel the distance.

I'll stop now.

Seriously, though, even if you don't like art bollox, watch Susanna's paso. Should have got fifty

[Bazzaboy]

Pryce showing massive heart has made it to the end of the 8th. Long way to go but he survived an early onslaught and Rabchenko has slowed a bit.

[Bazzaboy]

Last round for Pryce

[Bazzaboy]

Pryce hears the final bell.

Rabchenko wins on points.

[Marky147]

Pryce hears the final bell.

Rabchenko wins on points.

Too good Bazza 

[TightEnd]

One for bobby1, badbeat, redarmi etc

Click to see full-size image.

there are 4 Sunday NFL games outdoors in the area

Detroit at Pittsburgh

Baltimore at Chicago

Jets at Bills

Browns at Bengals

The lines for points are barely moved.

Soldier Field in Chicago is one to watch. Notoriousy tough track in bad weather as the wind comes in one end and swirls. The match also sees one no offense side, Ravens, against the Bears back up QB

The highest Points quote of the 4 is at Pittsburgh 47, which is Stafford and Megatron related.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-pittsburgh-steelers/total-points

 

[Tal]

Fig 1.2 Large Hale.

[redarmi]

One for bobby1, badbeat, redarmi etc

Click to see full-size image.

there are 4 Sunday NFL games outdoors in the area

Detroit at Pittsburgh

Baltimore at Chicago

Jets at Bills

Browns at Bengals

The lines for points are barely moved.

Soldier Field in Chicago is one to watch. Notoriousy tough track in bad weather as the wind comes in one end and swirls. The match also sees one no offense side, Ravens, against the Bears back up QB

The highest Points quote of the 4 is at Pittsburgh 47, which is Stafford and Megatron related.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-pittsburgh-steelers/total-points

 

I really like unders in the latter two games anyway.  I think it is time to get the multiple betting shoes on personally.

[Doobs]

Doobs, we spend plenty of time disagreeing over Strictly and time after time you end up being proved right. At some point, people will start drawing conclusions from that, but we can still put it down to variance for now. Right?

Patrick has so much fluidity in his body when he danced the samba tonight and he had so much content in the dance it is clear his partner has lots of confidence in his ability (compare to the dances where they stand still while the lady wears nothing and wiggled around them). I personally don't think - bear with me - he performs the latin dances well enough, in that he often had this look on his face where he's trying to remember the next step. His ballroom frame won't win him the competition, either, so he has a way to go.

I'm fascinated by the market move for him.

I have backed Patrick at 16/1 to be top man earlier and topped up at 9/4 a day or two ago just to catch that strength in the market, but there is no way he should be odds on in that top man market.  

Here is tonight's poll from Digital Spy (WARNING. These could be based on tiny numbers of votes so far).

'Strictly' goes to Blackpool: Who was your favourite couple in week eight?

Mark and Iveta 2.81%

Ashley and Ola 11.03%

Abbey and Aljaz 8.22%

Ben and Kristina 3.04%

Natalie and Artem 12.90%

Sophie and Brendan 8.14%

Patrick and Anya 2.10%

Fiona and Anton 1.13%

Susanna and Kevin 50.62%

Clearly Susanna was very good tonight, and that 4/1 didn't last.  I think that 13/10 for top man on Ashley was just very wrong.  If it reappears, I'll be back for more.  Patrick has already been bottom 2, and there doesn't appear to be a sustained upswing in his vote based on that poll above.

FWIW I won't be posting a spoiler tonight as there was no thread bet on this week's elimination.  

[Tal]

The Blackpool scores are always a little higher - they seem to do that on the feature events like this and the Hallowe'en night. I think Natalie was overmarked slightly FWIW. Her statement that she's now just going out to enjoy it belies her competitive side, but might be taken the wrong way by the viewers.

[bobby1]

One for bobby1, badbeat, redarmi etc

Click to see full-size image.

there are 4 Sunday NFL games outdoors in the area

Detroit at Pittsburgh

Baltimore at Chicago

Jets at Bills

Browns at Bengals

The lines for points are barely moved.

Soldier Field in Chicago is one to watch. Notoriousy tough track in bad weather as the wind comes in one end and swirls. The match also sees one no offense side, Ravens, against the Bears back up QB

The highest Points quote of the 4 is at Pittsburgh 47, which is Stafford and Megatron related.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-pittsburgh-steelers/total-points

 

I did play the under in the Buff, Cincy and Pitts games earlier in the week,  missed the lines in the Chicago game a little and left that but could easily still be a decent bet if the rain and wind is around at game time. Think they were 41 1/2 Buff 43 1/2 Cincy and 47 1/2 Pitts. The only thing that worried me a little is the totals went lower in those games and then bounced back up again in the Pitts game yesterday  but both the Pitts and Cincy games have fallen even further today so If you can still get numbers that beat the current Pinny totals of 41 41 and 45 1/2 then should still be decent bets. Wouldn't take under 41 tho given it is a decent number so obv 41 1/2 or better in those games is much better.

Edit, the total in the Chicago game was 46 1/2 earlier in the week too so the lines have deffo reacted to the more solid fcast's today.