Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

On Wednesday, tearaway league leaders Arsenal (ooh, that sounds so good) are at home to Hull City.

Hull City just beat Livepool, so their tails are up, but they don't travel well, only about 4 points away from home I think.

But they are a whopping 14/1 generally, 17/1 with BetVictor. Betfair, in a thin market, are about the same, 17.5.


Seems a big price to me, though a high-variance bet.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-hull/winner

Wenger will almost certainly a little bit rotate the squad for Hull too.

So there could be handbrake issues.

[tikay]

I hate to say it, but I'm slightly worried about Fred's £700 bet on Watford to finish in the top half.  Felt like it was buying money at the time, but the last few performances have been dreadful.  More worryingly, Zola doesnt' seem to know what to do - the 3-5-2 which works away from home simply doesn't work at home as teams sit back.  Yet time and again Zola lines up with the same formation.

Although Abdi is badly missed, the players at Zola's disposal are clearly talented enough to finish in the top 6, but he struggles to unlock their potential.  Further clouds exist in rumours about dressing room unrest between Deeney and Forestieri who are both key players this year.

We have Leeds and Burnley away this week, before Sheff Weds at home, so not an easy run (as Sheff Wed will have a new manager in place by then).  I feel like the Pozzos are in for the long term, so I think Zola will be given more time and the owners wouldn't act till January at the earliest if things don't improve.

But as a supporter the dramatic decline in performances really worries me and I'm starting to think Zola isn't the man to turn it round.  I'm also worried that Zola himself has come out and said that the players aren't listening to him.  Given the stroing personalities in the dressing room they could easily split into factions if the manager isn't holding them together.

You scared me then!

I think the bet is £350 @ 2/7. I'm not sure we have any wriggle room there, we just need to sit it out. Yes, things are going badly, but this is the Championship, & anything can happen. Can't say I'm sitting comfortably, but I'm not in worry-mode yet.

For context, we are on at 2/7, & the current price is 1/4, so we ain't in terrible shape.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/to-finish-in-top-half


We also have £50 @ 5/1, Watford to be Promoted. That's now a 7/1 chance, & it's not looking great, but again, the Championship is such a topsy-turvy League that I'm far from giving up on it yet. Last season Palace fell away shocking, & Brighton looked a class act. That never panned out as expected.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

[tikay]

On Wednesday, tearaway league leaders Arsenal (ooh, that sounds so good) are at home to Hull City.

Hull City just beat Livepool, so their tails are up, but they don't travel well, only about 4 points away from home I think.

But they are a whopping 14/1 generally, 17/1 with BetVictor. Betfair, in a thin market, are about the same, 17.5.


Seems a big price to me, though a high-variance bet.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-hull/winner

Wenger will almost certainly a little bit rotate the squad for Hull too.

So there could be handbrake issues.

Handbrakes I don't mind, but wearing my Arsenal duvet, no banana skins please, & the Arsenal of old used to find a few of those at this time of the season pretty reliably.

[a.sparrow]

From the paddy power twitter:

'@paddypower: I say,Best Selling Sex Toy Odds for Christmas: The Ultimate O 3/1, Hands-Free Vibrator 9/2,Mini Rampant Rabbit 5/1 http://t.co/HD2aYbPUWE'

Any experts here that can spot us some value?

Lol I cannot beleive someone at PP had the brain wave to come up with this market!

[Doobs]

I hate to say it, but I'm slightly worried about Fred's £700 bet on Watford to finish in the top half.  Felt like it was buying money at the time, but the last few performances have been dreadful.  More worryingly, Zola doesnt' seem to know what to do - the 3-5-2 which works away from home simply doesn't work at home as teams sit back.  Yet time and again Zola lines up with the same formation.

Although Abdi is badly missed, the players at Zola's disposal are clearly talented enough to finish in the top 6, but he struggles to unlock their potential.  Further clouds exist in rumours about dressing room unrest between Deeney and Forestieri who are both key players this year.

We have Leeds and Burnley away this week, before Sheff Weds at home, so not an easy run (as Sheff Wed will have a new manager in place by then).  I feel like the Pozzos are in for the long term, so I think Zola will be given more time and the owners wouldn't act till January at the earliest if things don't improve.

But as a supporter the dramatic decline in performances really worries me and I'm starting to think Zola isn't the man to turn it round.  I'm also worried that Zola himself has come out and said that the players aren't listening to him.  Given the stroing personalities in the dressing room they could easily split into factions if the manager isn't holding them together.

You scared me then!

I think the bet is £350 @ 2/7. I'm not sure we have any wriggle room there, we just need to sit it out. Yes, things are going badly, but this is the Championship, & anything can happen. Can't say I'm sitting comfortably, but I'm not in worry-mode yet.

For context, we are on at 2/7, & the current price is 1/4, so we ain't in terrible shape.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/to-finish-in-top-half


We also have £50 @ 5/1, Watford to be Promoted. That's now a 7/1 chance, & it's not looking great, but again, the Championship is such a topsy-turvy League that I'm far from giving up on it yet. Last season Palace fell away shocking, & Brighton looked a class act. That never panned out as expected.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

That 1/4 is a one way price from a single bookmaker, and is clearly terrible.   Even the most committed homer would be having 2nd thoughts if offered that.

FWIW Newcastle in to 10/1 with the only bookmaker offering that market.  I ran the numbers again last night, and it is now a lot closer.  If current points scoring continues the final handicap table would be

Arsenal 103
Southampton 100
Newcastle 100
Hull 99
Everton 97
Liverpool 90

Nahki Wells is now joint top scorer in league 1 again.

[tikay]

From the paddy power twitter:

'@paddypower: I say,Best Selling Sex Toy Odds for Christmas: The Ultimate O 3/1, Hands-Free Vibrator 9/2,Mini Rampant Rabbit 5/1 http://t.co/HD2aYbPUWE'

Any experts here that can spot us some value?

Lol I cannot beleive someone at PP had the brain wave to come up with this market!

Good grief. No class, no class at all.

[Chompy]

It ought to be possible to get out of the Watford top half bet by laying them in the Betty top 12 market.

2/7 = 1.29

I'd expect 1.28 to be taken if you offered it now.

[horseplayer]

Monday morning quick quiz

Fill in the missing club and name that player?

1996-2000 ............................
1999   → Grantham Town (loan)   10   (3)
2000   → King's Lynn (loan)      
2000   → Cambridge City (loan)      
2000-2001   TP-Seinäjoki   53   (17)
2002-2003   FF Jaro   56   (16)
2004-2005   AC Allianssi   43   (4)
2006   GIF Sundsvall      
2007-2010   Turun Palloseura   66   (3)


Gone up to 10 on the tough scale this one

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £11.25

Outstanding Bets £3129.51

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=33

A small profit to start the month thanks to Eduard at Carlisle and the two Arizonal Cardinals bets. They were offset by Jason Day narrowly failing to place and Harlequins thrashing Newcastle rather than the narrow victory required

In longer term positions

The Hull City win over Liverpool was good for the Handicap and top promoted team bets

Liverpool and Southampton losing suits our positions, however unlikely they are to win

Rodriguez scored by Southampton though Suarez didn't for Liverpool

Wells scored for Bradford

Bilbao beat Barcelona

The Bengals beat the Chargers to remain 2 clear at the top of the AFC north with 4 games to go

The Eagles victory over Arizona kept them tied at the top of the NFC East

The Titans only scored 14 points in losing to Indy, which leaves us behind the curve in that points bet

The Chiefs lost again to the Broncos, so are one game behind them with 4 to go

Quarterbacks, Brees plays tonight in a tough one in Seattle but ahead of that the position after the weekends games is

1   Peyton Manning, QB   DEN   4,125   
2   Drew Brees, QB    NO   3,647   
3   Matthew Stafford, QB DET 3,825   
4   Philip Rivers, QB SD   3,633   
5   Matt Ryan, QB   ATL   3,471   

so we have three of the top 5 paying top 4 each way

Ashley Taylor-Boring survived the dance off to rmain in SCD

Steve Davis was quoteable on IACGMOOH last night, I gather

[Sheriff Fatman]

The Wednesday job becoming vacant yesterday has made things interesting again, as there are now two vacancies within 10 miles of each other for two clubs sitting next to each other in the Championship in 23rd and 24th spots.  The two markets will be correlated to an extent, albeit they'll also both have candidates who are specific to each role as well as common names.

The good news for me as a fan is that Appleton has bizarrely started as favourite for the Wednesday job, which means his price has drifted for the Barnsley one.  This hopefully means that it's put a nail in the coffin of any prospect of ever seeing him in the Oakwell home dugout.

As a result of all this, Danny Wilson is now the odds on favourite at all 4 bookies who have a market, best price 10/11 with Paddy Power.  This again seems to be largely based on the fact that there are very few 'obvious' names out there and he provides the strongest link at the moment (legendary ex-manager, currently out of work).  There's a lot of logic to Wilson being a candidate, and personally I'd love to see him in the job again, but not enough to suggest a price that short.

Firstly, he'd be a popular choice among many of the supporters, but there's a significant element who still refer to him as 'Judas' for walking out to take the Wednesday job after we were relegated from the Premier League.  More importantly, I'm not sure he actually wants to come back.  He's had opportunities before where he's been available when the job was vacant and gone in a different direction, most obviously when he took the Sheffield United job (and we appointed Keith Hill, who was also a candidate for that job).

So yes, he's a credible candidate, but the prices on him are silly (I considered him at the opening price of 9/1 but didn't see enough value in that price).


Tikay - with regard to your hand-holding on this, the general idea is that this market will probably see lots of price changes and different favourites cropping up and becoming 'hot' for very little reason (which makes it fairly unique as far as manager markets go).  If so, then the plan will be to build up a small portfolio of credible names at big prices (all at small stakes, as there's no option to do otherwise anyway) and find value spots.  Ultimately we'll end up with a small loss or a decent pay-off to cover the spread of bets if one of the names hits.  Arguably, this is one time when we have an advantage on the market as they're following the speculation/forums just as much as we are.  The difference here is that we have better knowledge to deal with the info that's out there and filter out the good stuff from the crap (particularly as there are Wednesday fans who can potentially do the same for that vacancy too, although that's a higher profile role so that market doesn't quite fulfil the same characteristics as the Barnsley job).  However, info on the Wednesday job is useful in assessing the Barnsley one as the two are correlated, as we've seen by the relative price movements on Appleton in both.

It's very much, right place, right time stuff so perhaps not something that Fred can do easily if there's too big a delay.  These are as much tips for the individual Fred followers as they are recommendations for Fred itself.  I know there was a bit of interest last time around, so this is all largely aimed at that same group.  Hopefully it proves interesting to some, even if it purely ends up being a 'diary' of how good/bad my judgement proved to be (in which case, I'll be able to learn from it next time around!)

So far we've grabbed 16/1 on Mellon (currently best priced 4/1) and 33/1 on Phelan (now 16/1).  We're looking for more example of wrong prices on the right kind of people.

[a.sparrow]

From the paddy power twitter:

'@paddypower: I say,Best Selling Sex Toy Odds for Christmas: The Ultimate O 3/1, Hands-Free Vibrator 9/2,Mini Rampant Rabbit 5/1 http://t.co/HD2aYbPUWE'

Any experts here that can spot us some value?

Lol I cannot beleive someone at PP had the brain wave to come up with this market!

Good grief. No class, no class at all.

Sorry if that post offended you or anyone else, I just found it amazing that someone had come up with that market and also i must admit quite amusing. Obviously wasn't expecting any real views on the market from TFT readers.  

[DungBeetle]

I hate to say it, but I'm slightly worried about Fred's £700 bet on Watford to finish in the top half.  Felt like it was buying money at the time, but the last few performances have been dreadful.  More worryingly, Zola doesnt' seem to know what to do - the 3-5-2 which works away from home simply doesn't work at home as teams sit back.  Yet time and again Zola lines up with the same formation.

Although Abdi is badly missed, the players at Zola's disposal are clearly talented enough to finish in the top 6, but he struggles to unlock their potential.  Further clouds exist in rumours about dressing room unrest between Deeney and Forestieri who are both key players this year.

We have Leeds and Burnley away this week, before Sheff Weds at home, so not an easy run (as Sheff Wed will have a new manager in place by then).  I feel like the Pozzos are in for the long term, so I think Zola will be given more time and the owners wouldn't act till January at the earliest if things don't improve.

But as a supporter the dramatic decline in performances really worries me and I'm starting to think Zola isn't the man to turn it round.  I'm also worried that Zola himself has come out and said that the players aren't listening to him.  Given the stroing personalities in the dressing room they could easily split into factions if the manager isn't holding them together.

You scared me then!

I think the bet is £350 @ 2/7. I'm not sure we have any wriggle room there, we just need to sit it out. Yes, things are going badly, but this is the Championship, & anything can happen. Can't say I'm sitting comfortably, but I'm not in worry-mode yet.

For context, we are on at 2/7, & the current price is 1/4, so we ain't in terrible shape.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/to-finish-in-top-half


We also have £50 @ 5/1, Watford to be Promoted. That's now a 7/1 chance, & it's not looking great, but again, the Championship is such a topsy-turvy League that I'm far from giving up on it yet. Last season Palace fell away shocking, & Brighton looked a class act. That never panned out as expected.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

Yep - no need for the lifeboat yet, and I still expect them to finish in the top half , but just making Fred aware that all is not well at the moment.  This isn't an unlucky run.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I think the 'no class' comment was aimed at PP.

It looks like you might have thought it was aimed at you, from your reply.

[tikay]

From the paddy power twitter:

'@paddypower: I say,Best Selling Sex Toy Odds for Christmas: The Ultimate O 3/1, Hands-Free Vibrator 9/2,Mini Rampant Rabbit 5/1 http://t.co/HD2aYbPUWE'

Any experts here that can spot us some value?

Lol I cannot beleive someone at PP had the brain wave to come up with this market!

Good grief. No class, no class at all.

Sorry if that post offended you or anyone else, I just found it amazing that someone had come up with that market and also i must admit quite amusing. Obviously wasn't expecting any real views on the market from TFT readers.  

No no, your Post was abso fine, 100% tickity-boo, I was referring to Mr Power.

I guess they like to appeal to that sort of market. Next up, whoopee cushions & farts, then it'll be tit-time. No class. 

[horseplayer]

what is the max on that market ?