Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

It ought to be possible to get out of the Watford top half bet by laying them in the Betty top 12 market.

2/7 = 1.29

I'd expect 1.28 to be taken if you offered it now.

I'm not really sure we should try & exit, but obviously I'll listen to the experts.

We could end up doing an Eso Walsall with this. 

[tikay]

The Wednesday job becoming vacant yesterday has made things interesting again, as there are now two vacancies within 10 miles of each other for two clubs sitting next to each other in the Championship in 23rd and 24th spots.  The two markets will be correlated to an extent, albeit they'll also both have candidates who are specific to each role as well as common names.

The good news for me as a fan is that Appleton has bizarrely started as favourite for the Wednesday job, which means his price has drifted for the Barnsley one.  This hopefully means that it's put a nail in the coffin of any prospect of ever seeing him in the Oakwell home dugout.

As a result of all this, Danny Wilson is now the odds on favourite at all 4 bookies who have a market, best price 10/11 with Paddy Power.  This again seems to be largely based on the fact that there are very few 'obvious' names out there and he provides the strongest link at the moment (legendary ex-manager, currently out of work).  There's a lot of logic to Wilson being a candidate, and personally I'd love to see him in the job again, but not enough to suggest a price that short.

Firstly, he'd be a popular choice among many of the supporters, but there's a significant element who still refer to him as 'Judas' for walking out to take the Wednesday job after we were relegated from the Premier League.  More importantly, I'm not sure he actually wants to come back.  He's had opportunities before where he's been available when the job was vacant and gone in a different direction, most obviously when he took the Sheffield United job (and we appointed Keith Hill, who was also a candidate for that job).

So yes, he's a credible candidate, but the prices on him are silly (I considered him at the opening price of 9/1 but didn't see enough value in that price).


Tikay - with regard to your hand-holding on this, the general idea is that this market will probably see lots of price changes and different favourites cropping up and becoming 'hot' for very little reason (which makes it fairly unique as far as manager markets go).  If so, then the plan will be to build up a small portfolio of credible names at big prices (all at small stakes, as there's no option to do otherwise anyway) and find value spots.  Ultimately we'll end up with a small loss or a decent pay-off to cover the spread of bets if one of the names hits.  Arguably, this is one time when we have an advantage on the market as they're following the speculation/forums just as much as we are.  The difference here is that we have better knowledge to deal with the info that's out there and filter out the good stuff from the crap (particularly as there are Wednesday fans who can potentially do the same for that vacancy too, although that's a higher profile role so that market doesn't quite fulfil the same characteristics as the Barnsley job).  However, info on the Wednesday job is useful in assessing the Barnsley one as the two are correlated, as we've seen by the relative price movements on Appleton in both.

It's very much, right place, right time stuff so perhaps not something that Fred can do easily if there's too big a delay.  These are as much tips for the individual Fred followers as they are recommendations for Fred itself.  I know there was a bit of interest last time around, so this is all largely aimed at that same group.  Hopefully it proves interesting to some, even if it purely ends up being a 'diary' of how good/bad my judgement proved to be (in which case, I'll be able to learn from it next time around!)

So far we've grabbed 16/1 on Mellon (currently best priced 4/1) and 33/1 on Phelan (now 16/1).  We're looking for more example of wrong prices on the right kind of people.

Yes, amen to that, even if Fred misses, others can load up. The timing this weekend, for me, was just very awkeard, as I've had a load on my plate elsewhere.

Keep it coming.

[Marky147]

what is the max on that market ?

Such a tap in...

[tikay]

This may interest Sheriff......


Former Palace boss 5/4 for swift return to management with Latics

2nd December 2013

Ian Holloway is Sky Bet’s 5/4 favourite to replace Owen Coyle at Wigan after the Scot was sacked by the Championship club.

Sunday’s 3-1 defeat to Derby was Coyle’s third home loss in nine days and proved to be the last of his 23-game spell in charge.

Holloway is available and, having achieved promotion to the Premier League with Blackpool and Crystal Palace before, is thought to be on Latics chairman Dave Whelan’s radar.

However, punters have been keener on second favourite Mike Phelan, who has been backed in from 12/1 to 3/1, while a return for Paul Jewell has also seen more money at 10/1.

Sky Bet Football Trader Chris Spicer said: “Holloway has already proven his worth at this level and must be under Whelan’s consideration.

“Phelan is a popular choice but has been out of work since leaving Manchester United earlier this year and would pose a risk having only previously worked as an assistant manager, so we’re siding with Holloway.”

[a.sparrow]

I'm aware I have a youthful (childish) sense of humour so I wasn't sure if if anyone was offended, but I'm glad no one was.  Fwiw I think the hands free is the one to side with, people love to be lazy and achieve results with minimal effort, if horsey can concur that is his pick once he has got the max on I think fred should get a max on it

[Doobs]

From the paddy power twitter:

'@paddypower: I say,Best Selling Sex Toy Odds for Christmas: The Ultimate O 3/1, Hands-Free Vibrator 9/2,Mini Rampant Rabbit 5/1 http://t.co/HD2aYbPUWE'

Any experts here that can spot us some value?

Lol I cannot beleive someone at PP had the brain wave to come up with this market!

Good grief. No class, no class at all.

Sorry if that post offended you or anyone else, I just found it amazing that someone had come up with that market and also i must admit quite amusing. Obviously wasn't expecting any real views on the market from TFT readers.  

No no, your Post was abso fine, 100% tickity-boo, I was referring to Mr Power.

I guess they like to appeal to that sort of market. Next up, whoopee cushions & farts, then it'll be tit-time. No class.  

Talking of classy markets, the 2nd series of Splash is supposedly starting soon.  It will at least give us something to talk about when Strictly has finished.

I guess you wouldn't be aware, but our boy was in the dance off on Saturday.  No real worries as yet, I don't think the other fella is any more popular.  Currently 4/5 best price.  Natalie is still favourite in the main market.

Edit didn't see Tighty's update, I guess the Strictly news was the first bit you looked for. 

[tikay]

From the paddy power twitter:

'@paddypower: I say,Best Selling Sex Toy Odds for Christmas: The Ultimate O 3/1, Hands-Free Vibrator 9/2,Mini Rampant Rabbit 5/1 http://t.co/HD2aYbPUWE'

Any experts here that can spot us some value?

Lol I cannot beleive someone at PP had the brain wave to come up with this market!

Good grief. No class, no class at all.

Sorry if that post offended you or anyone else, I just found it amazing that someone had come up with that market and also i must admit quite amusing. Obviously wasn't expecting any real views on the market from TFT readers. 

No no, your Post was abso fine, 100% tickity-boo, I was referring to Mr Power.

I guess they like to appeal to that sort of market. Next up, whoopee cushions & farts, then it'll be tit-time. No class. 

Talking of classy markets, the 2nd series of Splash is supposedly starting soon.  It will at least give us something to talk about when Strictly has finished.

I guess you wouldn't be aware, but our boy was in the dance off on Saturday.  No real worries as yet, I don't think the other fella is any more popular.  Currently 4/5 best price.  Natalie is still favourite in the main market.

Thank you, & yes, somehow it by-passed my all-seeing radar. I blank that part out when I read Tighty's Report, too, it just makes me confused.

I commentated on a hand of yours last night, in the Super Roller, & as the millions of viewers will attest (ratings are approx), I said BEFORE the hand played out, this will end badly for Mr Doooobs. And it did.....(You had the A-10, the man had the K-Q, & you had to pay his cleverly sized bet off). Super-Bok, me. Alex did not fare too well, either.

[Doobs]

From the paddy power twitter:

'@paddypower: I say,Best Selling Sex Toy Odds for Christmas: The Ultimate O 3/1, Hands-Free Vibrator 9/2,Mini Rampant Rabbit 5/1 http://t.co/HD2aYbPUWE'

Any experts here that can spot us some value?

Lol I cannot beleive someone at PP had the brain wave to come up with this market!

Good grief. No class, no class at all.

Sorry if that post offended you or anyone else, I just found it amazing that someone had come up with that market and also i must admit quite amusing. Obviously wasn't expecting any real views on the market from TFT readers. 

No no, your Post was abso fine, 100% tickity-boo, I was referring to Mr Power.

I guess they like to appeal to that sort of market. Next up, whoopee cushions & farts, then it'll be tit-time. No class. 

Talking of classy markets, the 2nd series of Splash is supposedly starting soon.  It will at least give us something to talk about when Strictly has finished.

I guess you wouldn't be aware, but our boy was in the dance off on Saturday.  No real worries as yet, I don't think the other fella is any more popular.  Currently 4/5 best price.  Natalie is still favourite in the main market.

Thank you, & yes, somehow it by-passed my all-seeing radar. I blank that part out when I read Tighty's Report, too, it just makes me confused.

I commentated on a hand of yours last night, in the Super Roller, & as the millions of viewers will attest (ratings are approx), I said BEFORE the hand played out, this will end badly for Mr Doooobs. And it did.....(You had the A-10, the man had the K-Q, & you had to pay his cleverly sized bet off). Super-Bok, me. Alex did not fare too well, either.

It did feel pretty horrible at the time.  Think he'd bet his gutter on the flop too, but 2 pair was probably not beating anything, so shouldn't have paid him off.  I hope you told your viewers how it is wise to fold AT pre flop.   

[tikay]

I'm aware I have a youthful (childish) sense of humour so I wasn't sure if if anyone was offended, but I'm glad no one was.  Fwiw I think the hands free is the one to side with, people love to be lazy and achieve results with minimal effort, if horsey can concur that is his pick once he has got the max on I think fred should get a max on it

As you ask the question, these are the Maxes Fred could get on.

I dread to think what Mere must be thinking about all this, & if we are not careful, we'll have Girgy & the like salivating. Still, it will do wonders for Fred's SEO, we'll have all sorts here soon.  





Gold Vibrating Bullet 6/1 Max: £ 1.87


  





Finger Vibrating Clit Stimulator 10/1, Max: £ 1.24


  





Rechargeab..
 Rampant Rabbit 8/1, Max: £ 1.45


  





The Mini Rampant Rabbit 5/1 Max: £ 2.29


  





Neon Body Wand, 8/1, Max: £ 1.45


  





Vibrating Knickers, 7/1, Max: £ 1.66


  





Hands-Free Vibrator 9/2, Max: £ 2.49


  





Rabbit Vibrating Cock Ring 8/1, Max: £ 1.45


  





Jiggle Balls 6/1, Max: £ 1.87


  





The Ultimate O,  3/1, Max: £ 3.53

[david3103]

On Wednesday, tearaway league leaders Arsenal (ooh, that sounds so good) are at home to Hull City.

Hull City just beat Livepool, so their tails are up, but they don't travel well, only about 4 points away from home I think.

But they are a whopping 14/1 generally, 17/1 with BetVictor. Betfair, in a thin market, are about the same, 17.5.


Seems a big price to me, though a high-variance bet.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-hull/winner

Would you entertain this if it were posted by a Hull City fan?

I may or may not, but I'd auto-discount the recomend to a degree anyway, x%, as I always do with "homer" suggestions. (Ant & Palace, Plinop & Newcastle, etc). It's natural & correct so to do, imo, as they don't & can't see the situation impartially. Not a dig, not at all, just a fact of life.

I don't have a strong view either way on the game, but 17/1 just looked a bit big. Hull are, I think, about 10th in the table.

I think they'd win this game more than once in 16, but I won't live long enough to see the variance out.

I'm actually curious to know how we'd get on backing PL teams in games where they are, say, 16/1 or better. 16/1 in a three way bet is pretty big. 

I think there might be a better proposition in opposing the big teams away from home where the home win is above a threshold number, or to lay the away win?
eg
Chelsea Spurs and City are odds-on for their midweek travels (not much of a journey for Spurs)
and further ahead to the weekend the same three teams are again away and odds-on

I'm a confirmed icecream/mug but it's not so hard to see Sunderland causing at least one upset this week, nor to see West Brom do the same

[Karabiner]

I bet those vibrating knickers make twerking a piece of cake.

[tikay]

I bet those vibrating knickers make twerking a piece of cake.

Please, Ralph, I don't even want to think about that.

[Doobs]

what price 25 guests viewing the thread in an hour.

Surely page 1 on google for Finger Vibrating Clit Stimulator isn't too big an ask?

[tikay]

what price 25 guests viewing the thread in an hour.

Surely page 1 on google for Finger Vibrating Clit Stimulator isn't too big an ask?

The SEO spiders are already at work. Hope it's not the same spider that Lord Grumpy uses.

[david3103]

Vibrating knickers are priced (retail) to be bought as a novelty gift and could well create a buzz

can we get 69p?