Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

No views on Jordan Spieth, then?

What price I place the bet then someone says "that's a shocker"?.......

[edgascoigne]

The punter ONLY puts himself in those long term value spots when he gets the right price. I doubt 50% of the "suggested" bets put up on Fred meet that criteria.

This is a hugely important point of course and therein lies the rub I suppose.

Bad e/w doubles (not that I'm specifically suggesting them for Fred as it would be   to the accounts even more than already) are the most common example of the simplicity of the model. The win part of the double is almost always very poor value, but the place part, even though only half the stake, generally will be sufficiently good value to eradicate the -EV of the win part and place the entirety of the bet returning around 7-12% longterm. They are also a very easy one to get one's head around - eg. 4/1 shot at 1/5th the odds betting 6.2-6.4 the win and 1.41-1.42 the place at the off etc.

Hopefully my post came across in the manner it was intended and I of course appreciate your desire to keep Fred ticking along nicely without any undue bumps in the road



Now living next to WoT allotments so shout if you would like to meet for a pint one evening.

[TightEnd]

On the NFL stuff, I am trying to write up every play off match-up so I don't think for this thread, which should be more selective, that people should be blanket-backing each recommendation. The bets (KC+2.5 for example) are my view but I wouldn't claim any great mis-pricing. Note I didn't put them on here

There is probably more value in the sub markets for the individual games

For example on Sunday the peak temperature in Green Bay is expected to be -10c, with wind chill taking field temperature to -30c.

Green Bay play the 49ers and both will have no choice but to run it a lot

The 49ers have Frank Gore, a really punishing runner behind one of the league's best lines

The Packers have rookie Eddie Lacy who is a real load

Both could score multiple touchdowns in the game, though preference is for Gore because the Packers run defense is lacking compared to what Lacy will have to face

So if Paddy Power for example do offers like double odds if he scores twice etc, then thats the way to get value in these games 

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/hyundai-tournament-of-champions/winner

This starts in 40 mins and I think it might be worth a little. £10e/w on Jordan Spieth Corals still 22-1 (just beats bf) Although debutants do not fair well on this course I was reading an article the other day that thought Jordan might be an exception to that rule because his putting has been so good. Past winners have not faired particularly well in driving distances, but the course by all accounts is quite high for greens in regulation. If Jordan is on form with his putting then this is the sort of tournament he should be winning.

The best price has gone for Adam Scott who was 7.1 with earlier in the week.  Although after a win in November I've also had a little tickle on Harris English who seems to be in abit of form.

Not much time to decide so you might have to make the decision if it's a bet or not.

£10 e/w Spieth
£5e/w English both 22-1

Nobody?

I'll make an executive decision then, in 3......2.....1 minutes.

[tikay]

On the NFL stuff, I am trying to write up every play off match-up so I don't think for this thread, which should be more selective, that people should be blanket-backing each recommendation. The bets (KC+2.5 for example) are my view but I wouldn't claim any great mis-pricing. Note I didn't put them on here

There is probably more value in the sub markets for the individual games

For example on Sunday the peak temperature in Green Bay is expected to be -10c, with wind chill taking field temperature to -30c.

Green Bay play the 49ers and both will have no choice but to run it a lot

The 49ers have Frank Gore, a really punishing runner behind one of the league's best lines

The Packers have rookie Eddie Lacy who is a real load

Both could score multiple touchdowns in the game, though preference is for Gore because the Packers run defense is lacking compared to what Lacy will have to face

So if Paddy Power for example do offers like double odds if he scores twice etc, then thats the way to get value in these games 

Yes, all noted & agreed Rich.

I initially wanted to support "20 shop sonour", she's a big fan of yours, but there was no suggestion you had misled us on "bad" markets.

Anyway, I learned a little this morning, so that has to be good, & even amused Lord Kimber of GUKPT-Ville in doing so. All good then.

[Tal]

"The punter ONLY puts himself in those long term value spots when he gets the right price. I doubt 50% of the "suggested" bets put up on Fred meet that criteria."

Criterion, please. If you won't do multiple bets, will you at least do singular nouns?

Ed referencing Hamlet makes a welcome change of direction from all that...ahem...titillation...of yesterday.

[tikay]

The punter ONLY puts himself in those long term value spots when he gets the right price. I doubt 50% of the "suggested" bets put up on Fred meet that criteria.

This is a hugely important point of course and therein lies the rub I suppose.

Bad e/w doubles (not that I'm specifically suggesting them for Fred as it would be   to the accounts even more than already) are the most common example of the simplicity of the model. The win part of the double is almost always very poor value, but the place part, even though only half the stake, generally will be sufficiently good value to eradicate the -EV of the win part and place the entirety of the bet returning around 7-12% longterm. They are also a very easy one to get one's head around - eg. 4/1 shot at 1/5th the odds betting 6.2-6.4 the win and 1.41-1.42 the place at the off etc.

Hopefully my post came across in the manner it was intended and I of course appreciate your desire to keep Fred ticking along nicely without any undue bumps in the road



Now living next to WoT allotments so shout if you would like to meet for a pint one evening.

It IS a crucially important point, because I don't have the ability always to sort the wheat from the chaff, whereas most of the Elders do, & most of the "punters" don't.

You've no idea of the stick I get via PM for placing bad bets, but if I dont get feedback - a'la the Spieth suggestion - life gets awkward for me. 

I most certainly took the whole Post EXACTLY in the intended spirit, worry not, thats why I love this thread, is it what I always wanted blonde (generally) to be, & it failed miserably.

Ooh, I have a new Allotment friend, excellent news. I am teetotal, so we won't be having a pint any time soon - more chance of me doing a 10-fold Acca I'm afraid - but we can hook up for Coffee at the little coffee shop on Hampton Court Station, put the world to rights, & admire the trains coming & going one day. Pretty spiffing idea, actually.

[tikay]

"The punter ONLY puts himself in those long term value spots when he gets the right price. I doubt 50% of the "suggested" bets put up on Fred meet that criteria."

Criterion, please. If you won't do multiple bets, will you at least do singular nouns?

Ed referencing Hamlet makes a welcome change of direction from all that...ahem...titillation...of yesterday.

Look, you can piss right off with your pedantic shite. Ahh yes, much appreciated, criterion. I am such a galoot.

[moonandback]

Hi Tikay,
I have been dithering over whether to put up a college basketball bet again this year and have been checking oddschecker fairly regularly for the price on Wichita state to win the NCAA championships they are holding steady at 80/1 are undefeated so far this year and play in a fairly weak conference and could well do what gonzaga did last year and play their way to a #1 seed in the tourney (they may well remain unbeaten) however i don't actually think they can win it all even though they made the final 4 last year. now i wouldn't put anyone off having a small bet for fun but while perusing the odds i came across one team who i think are massively overpriced.. 

for this years college basketball bet i give you 
The Arizona Wlidcats @ 15/1 with William Hill. They are currently ranked #1 in the country this might not last but they shouldn't drop too much, they have started the year with 14 wins and zero losses. thye have good road wins at san diego state & michigan and have beaten Duke at a neutral site. the Pac12 is a little stronger than it has been in recent years with Oregon,Colorado,Ucla and even Utah having pretty good teams but when the year is played out i cant see them being any worse than a 2 or 3 seed in the Ncaa tourney and they could very well get a #1 seed. the teams ahead of them in the betting seem to be based on how good their players will be when they turn pro (Kentucky, Kansas & Duke have outstanding NBA prospects) not on how well they are playing right now.
Arizona rank 14th in points per 100 possession with 116.0 and 3rd in defence allowing 89.4 per 100 possessions. in short i think the true price is around 6-8/1 so getting 15/1 represents value (rankings out of 351 teams)

i recommend £40 @ 15/1 Arizona to win NCAA championships with William Hill.

[Tal]

"The punter ONLY puts himself in those long term value spots when he gets the right price. I doubt 50% of the "suggested" bets put up on Fred meet that criteria."

Criterion, please. If you won't do multiple bets, will you at least do singular nouns?

Ed referencing Hamlet makes a welcome change of direction from all that...ahem...titillation...of yesterday.

Look, you can piss right off with your pedantic shite. Ahh yes, much appreciated, criterion. I am such a galoot.

To be completely honest, it was purely to get the multiple gag in. On balance, I think it was worth it.

[sonour]

That's brilliant, chaps. My assumptions really aren't based on much, so I'm genuinely grateful for the insight from more experienced NFLers.

Am happy to mull that over (I'll change conclusions quite freely and happily if that's what the numbers tell me to do), but I do keep coming back to the question of whether it really is a coin flip as to whether it is Team A or Team B that throws the first red flag.

Probably not a coin flip but at odds of 5/6 we have a 17% advantage to overcome.

It's only 4.55% per selection, isn't it? One eleventh combined? You're still right, of course.

I don't know. 5/6 about an even money shot looks massive to me. Perhaps Doibs could help ?

[tikay]

Hi Tikay,
I have been dithering over whether to put up a college basketball bet again this year and have been checking oddschecker fairly regularly for the price on Wichita state to win the NCAA championships they are holding steady at 80/1 are undefeated so far this year and play in a fairly weak conference and could well do what gonzaga did last year and play their way to a #1 seed in the tourney (they may well remain unbeaten) however i don't actually think they can win it all even though they made the final 4 last year. now i wouldn't put anyone off having a small bet for fun but while perusing the odds i came across one team who i think are massively overpriced.. 

for this years college basketball bet i give you 
The Arizona Wlidcats @ 15/1 with William Hill. They are currently ranked #1 in the country this might not last but they shouldn't drop too much, they have started the year with 14 wins and zero losses. thye have good road wins at san diego state & michigan and have beaten Duke at a neutral site. the Pac12 is a little stronger than it has been in recent years with Oregon,Colorado,Ucla and even Utah having pretty good teams but when the year is played out i cant see them being any worse than a 2 or 3 seed in the Ncaa tourney and they could very well get a #1 seed. the teams ahead of them in the betting seem to be based on how good their players will be when they turn pro (Kentucky, Kansas & Duke have outstanding NBA prospects) not on how well they are playing right now.
Arizona rank 14th in points per 100 possession with 116.0 and 3rd in defence allowing 89.4 per 100 possessions. in short i think the true price is around 6-8/1 so getting 15/1 represents value (rankings out of 351 teams)

i recommend £40 @ 15/1 Arizona to win NCAA championships with William Hill.

That made my eyes bleed Moony, & I'd make more sense of a 'Stars HH than that.....

But here's where I struggle so much with Fred, because you gave us Gonzaga last year, which was one of the funnest (Tal alert) sweats we had all year, but I don't have a scooby-doo as to "value" here, & yet I query the Spieth & Hibs Bets. There's no explaining intuition.

Anyway, bla bla bla, we are on, thank you very much.   

By way of a little justification, Wm Hill are way OOL with their price on the Wildcats, see......



http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/ncaab/ncaa-championship/winner



Can you do us a favour & keep us updated please, to assist Tighty? We have quite a few Basketball chaps here, & I think they'll contribute to the fun, too.

BET PLACED

[Karabiner]

"The punter ONLY puts himself in those long term value spots when he gets the right price. I doubt 50% of the "suggested" bets put up on Fred meet that criteria."

Criterion, please. If you won't do multiple bets, will you at least do singular nouns?

Ed referencing Hamlet makes a welcome change of direction from all that...ahem...titillation...of yesterday.

Look, you can piss right off with your pedantic shite. Ahh yes, much appreciated, criterion. I am such a cockamamie galoot.

FYP

[BigAdz]

I had to be nudged by my most respected Elder this week, as I have been engrossed in a new project, (which I shall just leave out there for now) that the golf restarted this week. Hence I would feel a fraud for claiming to have researched it.

I have, and will continue to be an ice cream with Mr Speith as I am sure we will get a "major" return at some point soon. If he was going off at single figure odds it would not be worth it, but he has earned us some place money and I think he will reward us at decent odds to make it worthwhile soon.

[TightEnd]

Conference value


Disclaimer -  don't know much about Alfreton Town beyond what is publically available from league tables, results, form guides etc

I did though watch Barnet play on a terrible pitch on Wednesday, at Luton

Tomorrow they play their fourth game in nine days at home to Alfreton

During this time Alfreton were winning successive home matches while Barnet travelled to Salisbury and Luton


Alfreton have five straight wins and have risen to third in the table

Barnet three straight defeats


The prices for this game? Barnet 11/10, Alfreton 14/5!


---

Hereford United have lost 2 of 8 and are away at Woking tomorrow

Woking had two lads on loan in the first half of the season, scored 15 goals between them, Both have gone now though one back to parent club one into the football league

http://nonleague.pitchero.com/news/woking-lose-loan-strikers-27869/


Prices for this one


Woking 5/4 Hereford 14/5!



Can't see how either away team are nearly 3-1 here


Suggest a chunky (copyright Chompy) away win double (copyright edgascoigne) (or two singles if you must)