Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Interesting stand out price tomorrow

Betbright 11-1 Stitch in Time 2.40 Muss

Rest of the bookies have 7-1 max, as low as with Sid, and 12-1 on Betty for pennies, so not sure if qualifies as a palp?

No opinion on the race, but may interest some

[exstream]

Interesting stand out price tomorrow

Betbright 11-1 Stitch in Time 2.40 Muss

Rest of the bookies have 7-1 max, as low as with Sid, and 12-1 on Betty for pennies, so not sure if qualifies as a palp?

No opinion on the race, but may interest some

Race which you have opinion on please 

[BigAdz]

Interesting stand out price tomorrow

Betbright 11-1 Stitch in Time 2.40 Muss

Rest of the bookies have 7-1 max, as low as with Sid, and 12-1 on Betty for pennies, so not sure if qualifies as a palp?

No opinion on the race, but may interest some

Race which you have opinion on please 

Worst days racing Ive seen all year tomorrow......

[sonour]

Hibs win 2-1

Thank you Kmac !

[Snowball]

With the amount of chances Hibs had, over 3.5 wasn't far away.

[Omm]

Hibs win 2-1

Thank you Kmac !

Well done, a bit close for comfort but a result is a result.

[ripple11]

Hibs win 2-1

Thank you Kmac !

Well done, a bit close for comfort but a result is a result.

thanks!

[JaffaCake]

PP have an enhanced NBA bet tonight. Suns, Bulls, Heat and Kings all to win 7/2, best I can see is 4.24 elsewhere, so a smidge of value, should all win but ofc stranger things have happened

[maldini32]

Not looking good for Nahki Wells bet.

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/sport/10908244.I_don___t_want_to_play_waiting_game_over_Wells_in_transfer_window__says_Bradford_City_boss/

[maldini32]

Tikay you need to get in touch with Bwin to cancel the Fiorentina to qualify for CL bet. It's top 2 only, very sneaky and misleading.

I've asked to cancel it and will be sticking it on the top 3 finish at 5/2. You've already got £50 which is ok.

[Kmac84]

That game was harde for Hibs than it should have been finished at half time.   Hibs were the more dominant team but they lacked composure in front of goal if they had Lee Griffiths in that team I think they would have scored 4 or 5 with the chances they created.  

I think a striker will be on Terry's shopping list as soon as the window opens up.  I wonder if Celtic would consider letting Tony Watt go there?  Might be a good fit as he is not settling in Belgium.

[Ant040689]

She's a patron of the National Trust and has a MPhil in Plant and Environmental Sciences from Warwick University.

I hope that you don't make such negative assumptions about people in future, even though I've just completely made that up.

Well this didn't get enough love, wp

[Tal]

I can't find what I'm looking for, so I'll explain the outline of my thinking anyway, in case someone either knows something, where to find it or that I'm talking rubbish (BigAdz and JaffaCake need not apply)

Does anyone have any statistics - or know where I can find them - about the NFL coaches' challenges? When the various teams have requested them, situation, level of success, that kind of thing?

Have been doing some digging into the maths behind it this evening. Some fascinating stuff.

So, for those who haven't seen much American Football, although there are lots of officials on the field, each of the two head coaches has the chance to ask for a play to be reviewed (two apiece, essentially like the DRS system in cricket, and a third if you get the first two correct). Not all plays are reviewable, but the coach throws a red flag on the field when he wants the officials to have a look at the replay.

Anyway, I've noticed that some of the bookies have markets on which coach will issue the first challenge and I was surprised that the odds are the same: 5/6 the pair.

Firstly, some coaches must be more trigger happy than others with their red flags. This is probably not much of a factor, but I'd be amazed if all of the coaches were equally likely to challenge a play in identical circumstances.

Secondly, I can't find any stats on what sort of plays get challenged by coaches. Instinctively, I would have thought it was running plays, where a player is inches from getting a first down in a mass of bodies and it isn't clear whether he's short or there. I know all Touchdown plays are automatically reviewed and the challenges for those are typically going to be questions of whether a receiver had full control of the ball. This led me here:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/10/examining-value-of-coachs-challenges.html?m=1

Cliffs: challenges where the risk/reward gap is small (ie, where there's little difference whether you get it or not) have a much higher success rate than the higher profile, riskier challenges.

So, the 2nd and goal challenge where you're saying you got a touchdown but the refs say you were short has a decent chance of success statistically.( I expect these days someone has had a look at the video before the red flag is thrown)

To be challenging, the refs have to have ruled against you. It has been mentioned before that some refs favour the home side, I'm sure inadvertently. It's like getting a penalty at Old Trafford...

Don't you also get more plays if you run the ball a lot? The pay off is you don't get the quick yardage of the passing game. If you have 55% of plays, why wouldn't you have a theoretically greater chance of having the first review?

Ok, so say I am right - away sides might have more reason to challenge a ruling, running plays are more likely to be challenged and the teams who aren't likely to be throwing the ball near the end zone are probably more likely to have the close call play. Kansas City Chiefs only used Jamaal Charles 13 times when they last played the Colts in week 16. He will surely see the pigskin more, as long as he's fit. He put up good numbers nevertheless and has been one of the standout players of the league this year. It's not like no one knows he's good, but he's still had carries and great stats throughout the season.

Why wouldn't they be more likely to go for a coach's challenge first?


Ok. That's the sum total of an evening's work. Wasted without proper numbers, but I've done it now and it might be of ancillary use to someone else ITT. Must be a bet out there somewhere.

[Longy]

The reason those challenges have more success is that the coaches only challenge in clear cut situations. As sometimes you can't see where the player is down and the ball is with the mass of Bodies even with multiple angles, especially when talking inches instead of yards for incorrect spot.

[The Camel]

I can't find what I'm looking for, so I'll explain the outline of my thinking anyway, in case someone either knows something, where to find it or that I'm talking rubbish (BigAdz and JaffaCake need not apply)

Does anyone have any statistics - or know where I can find them - about the NFL coaches' challenges? When the various teams have requested them, situation, level of success, that kind of thing?

Have been doing some digging into the maths behind it this evening. Some fascinating stuff.

So, for those who haven't seen much American Football, although there are lots of officials on the field, each of the two head coaches has the chance to ask for a play to be reviewed (two apiece, essentially like the DRS system in cricket, and a third if you get the first two correct). Not all plays are reviewable, but the coach throws a red flag on the field when he wants the officials to have a look at the replay.

Anyway, I've noticed that some of the bookies have markets on which coach will issue the first challenge and I was surprised that the odds are the same: 5/6 the pair.

Firstly, some coaches must be more trigger happy than others with their red flags. This is probably not much of a factor, but I'd be amazed if all of the coaches were equally likely to challenge a play in identical circumstances.

Secondly, I can't find any stats on what sort of plays get challenged by coaches. Instinctively, I would have thought it was running plays, where a player is inches from getting a first down in a mass of bodies and it isn't clear whether he's short or there. I know all Touchdown plays are automatically reviewed and the challenges for those are typically going to be questions of whether a receiver had full control of the ball. This led me here:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/10/examining-value-of-coachs-challenges.html?m=1

Cliffs: challenges where the risk/reward gap is small (ie, where there's little difference whether you get it or not) have a much higher success rate than the higher profile, riskier challenges.

So, the 2nd and goal challenge where you're saying you got a touchdown but the refs say you were short has a decent chance of success statistically.( I expect these days someone has had a look at the video before the red flag is thrown)

To be challenging, the refs have to have ruled against you. It has been mentioned before that some refs favour the home side, I'm sure inadvertently. It's like getting a penalty at Old Trafford...

Don't you also get more plays if you run the ball a lot? The pay off is you don't get the quick yardage of the passing game. If you have 55% of plays, why wouldn't you have a theoretically greater chance of having the first review?

Ok, so say I am right - away sides might have more reason to challenge a ruling, running plays are more likely to be challenged and the teams who aren't likely to be throwing the ball near the end zone are probably more likely to have the close call play. Kansas City Chiefs only used Jamaal Charles 13 times when they last played the Colts in week 16. He will surely see the pigskin more, as long as he's fit. He put up good numbers nevertheless and has been one of the standout players of the league this year. It's not like no one knows he's good, but he's still had carries and great stats throughout the season.

Why wouldn't they be more likely to go for a coach's challenge first?


Ok. That's the sum total of an evening's work. Wasted without proper numbers, but I've done it now and it might be of ancillary use to someone else ITT. Must be a bet out there somewhere.

Good stuff

But I would guess (no info at hand) that most challenges are on passing plays. Whether a receiver made a clean catch or whether he got his feet in bounds stuff like that.

Challenges on where a runner got to are rarer because it is difficult to definitively say where a runner got to, because of bodies flying around mask where the ball is when the runner is downed

Also (and I stand to be corrected on this) I think you are mistaken about teams running the ball get more plays.

They have more time of possession, because the clock doesn't stop compared to an incomplete pass where it does stop. But I don't think they have more plays.