Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Pretty pleased with that video. Was thinking it would be hard to talk for 8 minutes without actually saying anything. Might stand for parliament.

 Although I think the horse is a lay, and I can't see it ever being 7/4 or shorter, I guess it's hard to be 3/1. The race is definitely ready for an upset. Definitely plan to back some bigger prices there.

Amateur, I can manage 5 hours.

PS - Enjoyed the Vid, though may I suggest you wear a daft hat next time? Deffo adds to the view count.

[Doobs]

PP allowed me £36.60 on Irving, way more than I thought they would, but I'm just wondering if having previously told both tikay and myself that we were no longer going to receive any of their special offers they may just treat that as a regular bet and settle it as loser should it only get placed.

I really don't know if I am banned from offers there.  I know I am definitely banned at Ladbrokes, and think I have at least one other.  People should really check.  Think I will put it on my to do list, and start marking my spreadsheet with restrictions!

Edit please read your PMs Tikay.  Thanks

[tikay]

Firstly would like to thank Tighty for inviting me back to the forum after a near 4 year gap at DTD at the weekend.  After taking plenty from this thread in the past 2 years and not being able to give anything back apart from private skype discussions with redarmi/Mrs Bandit/Tighty

Interesting point for discussion here.

A lot has been spoken recently about the EPL outright market on this fred and it being perfectly formed etc etc 'all the info is out there' etc etc. Whilst i agree with that in most markets there are plenty of other factors which 'alter' these markets this time of the season and historically has always been a profitable way of punting for me over the years exploiting firms ante post positions in 'giving' away profits to green up on their ante post liabilities on teams they haven't laid 'to get a bit in the book' or 'it suits to lay' blah blah blah.

I think this season is even more likely than ever to provide these opportunities for the following reason.  Looking at how the 4 football league tables in england stand at the minute virtually every mug ew acca/yankee/lucky 15 that punters have placed at the start of the season on the ante post fav or 2nd fav is going to win at least the place part of the bet with some truely massive potential liabilities running up on the win parts of these bets.

EPL is obvious front two in the market ante post are sitting 1st and 2nd and Manchester Utd who were co favs of 3 when the betting opened drifted like a barge towards the start of the season as money poured in ew for arsenal and liverpool.

Championship the front two in the ante post market were qpr and leics.  Div 1 Wolves and brentford the same.  Div 2 Chesterfield and Scunthorpe the same.  Luton in the conference.  With the exception of qpr all of these teams are massively odds on to finish in the top 3 of their league so virtually every 'mug' ew acca/multiple bet will have already copped for the vast majority of customers for the place part of the bet.  The liabilities running onto the win parts of these bets could truely be huge and a lot of firms systems will not be able to compute the liabilities they actually face on these accurately.  I think the two key teams the layers will be wanting to get 'beat' will be QPR and Wolves who were both such solid favs for their division compared to their other rivals and will be the cornerstone of so many multis.  If they can get QPR out of the top 3 a lot of the place multiples will lose.

Its these types of situations which could easily give us the opportunity to find firms 'happy to lay' certain teams 'over the odds' up until the end of the season at bigger prices than they should be.  I think we should be actively looking at these markets over the next 2 months for these types of opportunities.

With that in mind the current EPL outright market and top 2 market looks quite out of line with expectations especially the liverpool and arsenal prices.  In the outright market Liverpool are 8.6-8.8 on bf arsenal are 9.0-9.2 on bf both obviously for decent money.  Both are 8/1 with the fixed odds firms if you shop around.  However in the top 2 market its somewhat different with arsenal a 2/1 shot and liverpool nearly a 4/1 shot on bf.  Surely these two markets are a function of each other and these differences should never be in place to this degree.  To add further data to the case sporting index have arsenals season points 2.5 points higher than liverpool.

Looking at the data above it would appear that either liverpool are a great lay at under 8/1 on bf in the outright market and/or arsenal are a great bet at 8/1 comm free with a selection of firms.  I am not entirely sure which gives us the biggest edge.  Happy to receive feedback from the elders on here but this market has to have value in it somewhere given these distortions.

Goal difference is obviously a factor in liverpool's favour but is never such an issue to have such a difference in the top 2 prices.  We can assume that sporting index's quotes will absorb all remaining fixture/scheduling differences between the two teams.

My recommendation is a £100 win bet on arsenal at 8/1 although i have backed arsenal personally and laid liverpool at 8.6 today i dont really want to open my account on the fred laying an ante post 8/1 shot.

Look forward to everyone's thoughts.

Morning Mr Arrboy.

Fred needed you, where have you been? Oh, wait......

Very much enjoyed that Post, & subsequent stuff, you will be a great asset to us I believe.

So, this Arsenal Bet. I followed the logic just fine, but I just have 2 questions.

1) Is this an outright bet purely on price, or is there a potential trade down the line?

2) We already have £60 @ 15/8 for Arsenal to finish Top Three. Presumably, both bets can work OK independently if they are, or were, value?

I'm quite happy to climb aboard as suggested, but just need to learn how to tell my arse from my elbow first.   

[sonour]

and in order to pay for the offer they have now made half the field in the race bottom price on oddschecker.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/supreme-novices-hurdle/

Suppose there has to be a bit of give and take for them to do the offer, here's the t and c's

Cheltenham Money-Back Special
We will refund stakes on the 2nd, 3rd & 4th placed horses in the Supreme Novices Hurdle!
   Applies to 13:30 at Cheltenham on March 11th.
   Applies to 'Win or Each Way' market only. Applies to Win part of Each Way bets only
   Applies to singles only.
   Maximum refund £/€50 per customer.
   Does not include tote bets or in-running bets.
   Applies to bets placed from 8pm on February 26th.
   Paddy Power horse racing rules apply.
   Paddy Power reserves the right in its discretion to exclude and/or limit the availability of the offer to certain customers.

They are also NRNB, although they have gone 9/4 surely Irving is the bet for those that can? Thoughts?

Yes, even at 9/4 Irving is by far the best bet for this offer.

I wish to retract that. This is a little more complex than the standard refund if offers. I'll take a look at it later.

It is a no brainer, it is better than the standard free bet on 2nd.  I have pretty much said as much already.

You get slightly lower odds but money back on 2nd, 3rd and 4th.  The maths is just going to be so compelling I really don't need to do it.  Obviously don't go over the £50 limit.

The only problem Tikay is going to have is if he is so restricted and/or doesn't get the offer.  They restricted me a bit, so guess they'll give Tikay £15 or so.  Paddy Power seem to really hammer me on some of their offers, but weren't so bad here.

  

Yes the offer is obviously great. But is there more EV in Irving 3.25/3.8 or Wicklow Brave 7/8 ?
Your thought would be appreciated please Doobs

[sonour]

The Ladbrokes money back on every horse if Hurricane Fly finishes 1st or 2nd in the Champion Hurdle offer will be available in shops from Saturday.

[TightEnd]

To give you an idea of how the relative power units are performing in Bahrain today,

Mercedes-powered cars are currently first, second, third and sixth.

Ferrari-powered cars are fourth, eighth and 10th.

Those with Renault engines are fifth, seventh, ninth and 11th.

The Renault powered cars have not, two and bit tests into three tests total in pre-season, been able to do any practice starts for fear of blowing the engine. Bit of a disadvantage on the grid, that.

It continues to look like we are well placed for the early races with Hamilton, Button and Magnusson

[Doobs]

and in order to pay for the offer they have now made half the field in the race bottom price on oddschecker.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/supreme-novices-hurdle/

Suppose there has to be a bit of give and take for them to do the offer, here's the t and c's

Cheltenham Money-Back Special
We will refund stakes on the 2nd, 3rd & 4th placed horses in the Supreme Novices Hurdle!
   Applies to 13:30 at Cheltenham on March 11th.
   Applies to 'Win or Each Way' market only. Applies to Win part of Each Way bets only
   Applies to singles only.
   Maximum refund £/€50 per customer.
   Does not include tote bets or in-running bets.
   Applies to bets placed from 8pm on February 26th.
   Paddy Power horse racing rules apply.
   Paddy Power reserves the right in its discretion to exclude and/or limit the availability of the offer to certain customers.

They are also NRNB, although they have gone 9/4 surely Irving is the bet for those that can? Thoughts?

Yes, even at 9/4 Irving is by far the best bet for this offer.

I wish to retract that. This is a little more complex than the standard refund if offers. I'll take a look at it later.

It is a no brainer, it is better than the standard free bet on 2nd.  I have pretty much said as much already.

You get slightly lower odds but money back on 2nd, 3rd and 4th.  The maths is just going to be so compelling I really don't need to do it.  Obviously don't go over the £50 limit.

The only problem Tikay is going to have is if he is so restricted and/or doesn't get the offer.  They restricted me a bit, so guess they'll give Tikay £15 or so.  Paddy Power seem to really hammer me on some of their offers, but weren't so bad here.

  

Yes the offer is obviously great. But is there more EV in Irving 3.25/3.8 or Wicklow Brave 7/8 ?
Your thought would be appreciated please Doobs

Yes I think so, I think Irving is more likely to finish 2nd to 4th than Wicklow Brave.  Probably 5/4 vs 7/4 at a guess.   I don't think there is that much in it in this case, as you lose more on the win side with Irving, but gain more on the place side.   I think the place bit is more than likely big enough to outweigh the win side.  Even without this, I'd always go the lower variance route if there wasn't much between them, which would be Irving.  

I wouldn't worry about getting exactly the right bet, as either is going to be very good value.  You could probably do £25 on each if you wanted very low variance and weren't restricted.

[ripple11]

PP offer on Supreme Novices available in shops too

Is this a case of getting the walking boots on?

Recommended bets?

There's a few in London 

[Rubbish2407]

Pretty pleased with that video. Was thinking it would be hard to talk for 8 minutes without actually saying anything. Might stand for parliament.

 Although I think the horse is a lay, and I can't see it ever being 7/4 or shorter, I guess it's hard to be 3/1. The race is definitely ready for an upset. Definitely plan to back some bigger prices there.

Amateur, I can manage 5 hours.

PS - Enjoyed the Vid, though may I suggest you wear a daft hat next time? Deffo adds to the view count.

Where were all those people going to? Was there a Woman standing behind you selling sandwiches?

[Rubbish2407]

Forgot to thank Pokerfan for the Kendalls Ice Cream picture. Cheers Bud.

[tikay]

Forgot to thank Pokerfan for the Kendalls Ice Cream picture. Cheers Bud.

Great gallery, too.

Good job it never said "Kendall IS an Ice Cream".....

[Bad Beat]

 They were all going to a meeting in a room that had "football room" written on the door. It's a pretty young company with a table football in the canteen and a dart board in one of the rooms.

 For a second I thought they were going to have a kick-about.

[horseplayer]

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Fancy a Mere Tipster Comp for Cheltenham?

Or leave it to Stakes & Ladders?

Please see.....


http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=63340.new#new

[c4ught]

To give you an idea of how the relative power units are performing in Bahrain today,

Mercedes-powered cars are currently first, second, third and sixth.

Ferrari-powered cars are fourth, eighth and 10th.

Those with Renault engines are fifth, seventh, ninth and 11th.

The Renault powered cars have not, two and bit tests into three tests total in pre-season, been able to do any practice starts for fear of blowing the engine. Bit of a disadvantage on the grid, that.

It continues to look like we are well placed for the early races with Hamilton, Button and Magnusson

Is there any value in laying Vettel for the drivers championship? Can be laid at around 4/1. Two or three bad races and you could have yourself a freeroll?

Playing catch up vs one team wouldn't be to bad but to me it looks like there will be 3 teams that they will start the season behind.