Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

nothing on Lads site at all

However you can still back everyone bar Lyon each way if you use oddschecker slip.

Even the original bet was Lyon it cant be a bad thing to back anyone else each way

[TightEnd]

Yes please

I think the right price is 4/1 or below, so 11/2 is a nice margin

[horseplayer]

Harris at 3's looks a fair each way bet as does Siddle at 4's

[tikay]

Yes please

I think the right price is 4/1 or below, so 11/2 is a nice margin

Done. (Sporting Bet)

Bet Type: Single
Top Aus Bowler - 1st Inns Only Top Wicket Taker - Dead Heat Rules Apply Nathan Lyon 11/2



Possible Payout 130.00 GBP

1 bet @
20.00 GBP 
 

Total Cost:  20.00 GBP
Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 130.00 GBP

BET PLACED

[horseplayer]

[TightEnd]

!!

Click to see full-size image.

[redsimon]

Slight thread derail...but can anyone tell me the pre match odds on the Olympiakos/Man U game yesterday for home side to win?

Didnt get access to odds out here yesterday and will settle a private bet

[kpnuts]

PP on twitter: "We've some BIG NEWS coming tonight, I mean BIG f*ckin news. Think of the biggest news you've ever heard it's bigger than that! #CheltMental"

Popular rumour in Ireland is this year's offer going to be money back if your horse 2nd/3rd/4th in the Supreme.

Likely multi triple max situation for Fred. And Sonour may need a few more husbands.

[Tal]

PP on twitter: "We've some BIG NEWS coming tonight, I mean BIG f*ckin news. Think of the biggest news you've ever heard it's bigger than that! #CheltMental"

Popular rumour in Ireland is this year's offer going to be money back if your horse 2nd/3rd/4th in the Supreme.

Likely multi triple max situation for Fred. And Sonour may need a few more husbands.

 

[kpnuts]

Slight thread derail...but can anyone tell me the pre match odds on the Olympiakos/Man U game yesterday for home side to win?

Didnt get access to odds out here yesterday and will settle a private bet

Think they went off around 3.55 on Betfair after being circa 3.7 most of the day.
Of the bookies, Boyles were best price yesterday afternoon at 11/4, bet365's 27/10 best closer to kickoff.

[TightEnd]

Slight thread derail...but can anyone tell me the pre match odds on the Olympiakos/Man U game yesterday for home side to win?

Didnt get access to odds out here yesterday and will settle a private bet

12/5

[redarmi]

Slight thread derail...but can anyone tell me the pre match odds on the Olympiakos/Man U game yesterday for home side to win?

Didnt get access to odds out here yesterday and will settle a private bet

At the close of the market Man Untied could be backed at about 11/8, shade over 9/4 Olympiakos and the draw.  High street bookies would have been a bit shorter about MU and possibly a bit bigger about Olympiakos and Olympiakos were steadily bet all day so opened a fair bit bigger.

[Bad Beat]

 Just seen this on Twitter...prob after the ridiculous Cheltenham Weights Lunch...

 "Trainer Dessie Hughes is likely to run Lyreen Legend in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup rather than in the Ryanair Chase"

[Tal]

Wish they'd all make their blooming minds up!

[arbboy]

Firstly would like to thank Tighty for inviting me back to the forum after a near 4 year gap at DTD at the weekend.  After taking plenty from this thread in the past 2 years and not being able to give anything back apart from private skype discussions with redarmi/Mrs Bandit/Tighty

Interesting point for discussion here.

A lot has been spoken recently about the EPL outright market on this fred and it being perfectly formed etc etc 'all the info is out there' etc etc. Whilst i agree with that in most markets there are plenty of other factors which 'alter' these markets this time of the season and historically has always been a profitable way of punting for me over the years exploiting firms ante post positions in 'giving' away profits to green up on their ante post liabilities on teams they haven't laid 'to get a bit in the book' or 'it suits to lay' blah blah blah.

I think this season is even more likely than ever to provide these opportunities for the following reason.  Looking at how the 4 football league tables in england stand at the minute virtually every mug ew acca/yankee/lucky 15 that punters have placed at the start of the season on the ante post fav or 2nd fav is going to win at least the place part of the bet with some truely massive potential liabilities running up on the win parts of these bets.

EPL is obvious front two in the market ante post are sitting 1st and 2nd and Manchester Utd who were co favs of 3 when the betting opened drifted like a barge towards the start of the season as money poured in ew for arsenal and liverpool.

Championship the front two in the ante post market were qpr and leics.  Div 1 Wolves and brentford the same.  Div 2 Chesterfield and Scunthorpe the same.  Luton in the conference.  With the exception of qpr all of these teams are massively odds on to finish in the top 3 of their league so virtually every 'mug' ew acca/multiple bet will have already copped for the vast majority of customers for the place part of the bet.  The liabilities running onto the win parts of these bets could truely be huge and a lot of firms systems will not be able to compute the liabilities they actually face on these accurately.  I think the two key teams the layers will be wanting to get 'beat' will be QPR and Wolves who were both such solid favs for their division compared to their other rivals and will be the cornerstone of so many multis.  If they can get QPR out of the top 3 a lot of the place multiples will lose.

Its these types of situations which could easily give us the opportunity to find firms 'happy to lay' certain teams 'over the odds' up until the end of the season at bigger prices than they should be.  I think we should be actively looking at these markets over the next 2 months for these types of opportunities.

With that in mind the current EPL outright market and top 2 market looks quite out of line with expectations especially the liverpool and arsenal prices.  In the outright market Liverpool are 8.6-8.8 on bf arsenal are 9.0-9.2 on bf both obviously for decent money.  Both are 8/1 with the fixed odds firms if you shop around.  However in the top 2 market its somewhat different with arsenal a 2/1 shot and liverpool nearly a 4/1 shot on bf.  Surely these two markets are a function of each other and these differences should never be in place to this degree.  To add further data to the case sporting index have arsenals season points 2.5 points higher than liverpool.

Looking at the data above it would appear that either liverpool are a great lay at under 8/1 on bf in the outright market and/or arsenal are a great bet at 8/1 comm free with a selection of firms.  I am not entirely sure which gives us the biggest edge.  Happy to receive feedback from the elders on here but this market has to have value in it somewhere given these distortions.

Goal difference is obviously a factor in liverpool's favour but is never such an issue to have such a difference in the top 2 prices.  We can assume that sporting index's quotes will absorb all remaining fixture/scheduling differences between the two teams.

My recommendation is a £100 win bet on arsenal at 8/1 although i have backed arsenal personally and laid liverpool at 8.6 today i dont really want to open my account on the fred laying an ante post 8/1 shot.

Look forward to everyone's thoughts.