Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649


This may well be bollux.
In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

(Figures for other length matches are available on request).

looks spot on to me.  nice work!  Makes total sense that the likelihood of the draw increases as the % of holding your throw does because its less random.

[tikay]

Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649


This may well be bollux.
In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

(Figures for other length matches are available on request).

Bugger, beat me to it.

[horseplayer]

Mere is back

[redarmi]

Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649


This may well be bollux.
In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

(Figures for other length matches are available on request).

One day the Mere shall inherit the earth.

[arbboy]

Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649


This may well be bollux.
In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

(Figures for other length matches are available on request).

One day the Mere shall inherit the earth.

Much more impressive way of coming to the same conclusion as me!!!!!But based on the assumption that you are 65/35 fav to hold ur throw then it actually makes the draw more likely than i thought by 1%.  If you then take the negative factor of each leg potentially not being independent these two factors probably cancel each other out to make my initial calcs of the draw being a 7/2 shot about right on the balance of probability.

[sonour]

Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649


This may well be bollux.
In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

(Figures for other length matches are available on request).

One day the Mere shall inherit the earth.

Too good

[tikay]

6-5.......

[sonour]

Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649


This may well be bollux.
In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

(Figures for other length matches are available on request).

Nice one Mere. Pretty impressive

[tikay]

Oooohhhhhhhh

[arbboy]

sums up the 8 years of eating value pie on darts draws that game very well.

[tikay]

sums up the 8 years of eating value pie on darts draws that game very well.

It was worth £30 just for the debate, the graphs, & the Mere thing. Soon as Tal Posted those Girlie Tennis Stats, Mere was nailed on to be interested.

[sonour]

PP went NRNB for all Cheltenham races from today.

[redarmi]

sums up the 8 years of eating value pie on darts draws that game very well.

It was worth £30 just for the debate, the graphs, & the Mere thing. Soon as Tal Posted those Girlie Tennis Stats, Mere was nailed on to be interested.

Yeah definitely a good debate.  Hate to admit it but Arbboy will be good for this place.

[arbboy]

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Has anyone else had this email from skybet today?  Comical survey to send to punters who get their accounts restricted to £2 a bet then get asked why they don't bet with skybet any more and the reasons why!!  Why don't they only send it to full limit customers because surely by restricting a customer they don't want their business and surely their views on their product either?

[arbboy]

loved this question they asked

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