Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Best move this geeky shizzle to another thread, or else we will:

- scare off the recs
- bore the pants off those poor souls who just want "Recommend £20 on the fat bloke"
- lead to people missing any actual recommends (possibly including our protagonist)
- wind up Jaffa "20 pages of guff to plough through harrumph" Cake
- annoy the heck out of us pedants, who like seeing posts properly quoted.

Do make the thread happen though, because it's jolly good fun!

[RobS]

Not looking for a ruck here btw just putting it out there i would argue he is as likely to be more focused as he knows if he doesn't win this leg he is 65% likely to be 5-0 down.  I just think these legs are pretty much independent at the early stages of the match.

Haha neither am I, I hate rugby. Interested in what others think, maybe each leg is close enough to being independent to not make a significant difference, i.e. if someone has gone 3-0 down whilst his opponent has so far been clinical maybe he is 63% for the fourth leg?

[Tal]

Ant92748292 post incoming...

Spurs putting out arguably our most attacking side of the season. 11/10 to qualify with Betting366. I think it's a lovely price. Really believe the pitch was a factor last week and we now have a striker playing who can score tap ins. BillyHilly goes odds on and average is evens. I think this is worth a modest investment for Fred.

30 for 33?

[Dubai]

2.26 bf which I think is fair to good

[Tal]

2.26 bf which I think is fair to good

Fabulous!

Just got to do the easy bit now...

[Karabiner]

Thursdays seem to have a strange effect on Tal.

It's almost as though he goes into his little Thursday telephone kiosk and emerges as Europaman ready to take on all and sundry, especially sundry. And geeky..

Then he tries to wind up Mere Novice by posting obscure ladies tennis stats.

Anyone got a pint of kryptonite handy?

[Tal]

 

[arbboy]

is taylor really a 4/9 shot for this game?

[tikay]

Ant92748292 post incoming...

Spurs putting out arguably our most attacking side of the season. 11/10 to qualify with Betting366. I think it's a lovely price. Really believe the pitch was a factor last week and we now have a striker playing who can score tap ins. BillyHilly goes odds on and average is evens. I think this is worth a modest investment for Fred.

30 for 33?

Ugh, missed it, sorry.

Please don't tell me they are leading 5-2.

[tikay]

The Darts Affair.

After all the diodomel poisson distributors, and natter that ranged to tennis and all sorts, we'd better get the bet on.

Betfair now go 5.2 (minus commish) so we will have the recommended £30 @ 4/1 with BetFred.

BET PLACED

EDIT - the bet is with BetVictor, NOT BetFred. Details in the morning.

[Tal]

Ant92748292 post incoming...

Spurs putting out arguably our most attacking side of the season. 11/10 to qualify with Betting366. I think it's a lovely price. Really believe the pitch was a factor last week and we now have a striker playing who can score tap ins. BillyHilly goes odds on and average is evens. I think this is worth a modest investment for Fred.

30 for 33?

Ugh, missed it, sorry.

Please don't tell me they are leading 5-2.

They would need to have had five shots on target for that.

The spurs bets haven't been going quite as well as hoped of late

People will be writing in to complain that they are missing Midsomer Murders because of this.

[horseplayer]

Dawson seems to have kept his record of playing aimless 50 yard "passes" under every manager he has played under

Beyond belief no other defender in a top league gives it away as much including Demichelis

[Omm]

Just putting my thoughts out aloud, hopefully get a few responses.

Fred has a free bet on Annie Power( 25@12-1) for the Champion Hurdle and by all accounts she looks destined for the World Hurdle. However what price would she be if confirmed for The Champion Hurdle, would she be close to top of the market 3-1? Shorter on the day? I would imagine she would have a great chance of winning the race considering her record. (Still not an expert so by all means someone shoot me down with the form against the boys)

Anyway bookies are offering NRNB ( I realised she is 20. On BF) but 9-1 with money back if she doesn't run with a few firms, wouldn't it be prudent to make an investment - just in case? Each way 1/4 1/2/3 seems okay to me if she was to run, money back no harm done if she doesn't.

I realise it's not likely she will run the race but stranger things have happen - Binocular?

A bit of devils advocat before I go diving in please.

[Tal]

Good dodge, tikay.

David Effemmellery...

[MereNovice]

Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649


This may well be bollux.
In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

(Figures for other length matches are available on request).