Tips for Tikay

[sonour]

I don't know if this has been posted before.

New #CheltFest betting offer from Paddy. Free Bet on Supreme Novices Hurdle - money back if your horse finishes 2/3/4

I think its £50 max

Any ideas how to benefit from this offer?

Back 4 horses in the race each for £12.50 hope the biggest priced one wins and the others come 2nd 3rd and 4th.

I was thinking of backing a horse with Paddy and laying it on Betfair and hope that it will lose so I can then cash in the free bet.

Yes you can do that. But you need to lay the horse in the place market as well. It isn't a free bet at PP it is a cash refund.

You don't need to lay anything.  Laying is -EV.  Whilst it is attractive to reduce variance in the short run, laying offers loses money in the long run.  More true if you have a 5% account than a 2% one.

Ignore what I said earlier, I am not sure Wicklow Brave is any good, it is some way off Betfair.  Irving or Vantour may well be better still.

GreekWay said he was thinking of some way of backing and laying. Just trying to help with that. Not suggesting that is the best way of doing the offer. If you are only doing one bet then stick it on Irving on the day and run with it.

[GreekWay]

Why does the NRNB affect the whole thing? If the horse doesn't run you get your money back with Paddy and win with BF so a win overall.

So its only a good thing, isn't?

[GreekWay]

With the current odds if you back and lay e.g. Irving (which is the favourite) you lose £11 if you pay 5% commission.

If Irving wins or is not placed you don't benefit from the offer and lose £11.

What if you back and lay the 2nd favourite on the race?


Just to avoid any confusion I don't know how to deal with this offer as I haven't done a same before so I am open for discussion to find a possible solution we can benefit from.

[arbboy]

Why does the NRNB affect the whole thing? If the horse doesn't run you get your money back with Paddy and win with BF so a win overall.

So its only a good thing, isn't?

yes but u wont be able to back or lay close to bf prices from the power prices because of the concession.  Looking at the prices they currently have i think one way to attack it might be to have £50 on Vaniteux at 12/1 nrnb lay it at 14/1 on bf in their current market for say £45 and write off £5.  If it pulls out u will win £45 on bf and get your money back from power and then maybe still be able to have another £50 on the day of the race under the concession as your original £50 has been classed as a non runner.  Not sure what would happen in this situation so you can effectively have two shots at it and win an additional £45 if it doesnt run on the day.  Any ideas if this would be possible under their rules?

[GreekWay]

Why does the NRNB affect the whole thing? If the horse doesn't run you get your money back with Paddy and win with BF so a win overall.

So its only a good thing, isn't?

yes but u wont be able to back or lay close to bf prices from the power prices because of the concession.  Looking at the prices they currently have i think one way to attack it might be to have £50 on Vaniteux at 12/1 nrnb lay it at 14/1 on bf in their current market for say £45 and write off £5.  If it pulls out u will win £45 on bf and get your money back from power and then maybe still be able to have another £50 on the day of the race under the concession as your original £50 has been classed as a non runner.  Not sure what would happen in this situation so you can effectively have two shots at it and win an additional £45 if it doesnt run on the day.  Any ideas if this would be possible under their rules?

I understand your thoughts and its a really good idea if you can find a possible NR in the race.

Problem is that you will need a big liability on BF to cover your bet with Paddy. If you back Vaniteux at current odds you will need a liability around £600 and you will still lose £11 if the horse runs and doesn't win or placed.

[arbboy]

Why does the NRNB affect the whole thing? If the horse doesn't run you get your money back with Paddy and win with BF so a win overall.

So its only a good thing, isn't?

yes but u wont be able to back or lay close to bf prices from the power prices because of the concession.  Looking at the prices they currently have i think one way to attack it might be to have £50 on Vaniteux at 12/1 nrnb lay it at 14/1 on bf in their current market for say £45 and write off £5.  If it pulls out u will win £45 on bf and get your money back from power and then maybe still be able to have another £50 on the day of the race under the concession as your original £50 has been classed as a non runner.  Not sure what would happen in this situation so you can effectively have two shots at it and win an additional £45 if it doesnt run on the day.  Any ideas if this would be possible under their rules?

I understand your thoughts and its a really good idea if you can find a possible NR in the race.

Problem is that you will need a big liability on BF to cover your bet with Paddy. If you back Vaniteux at current odds you will need a liability around £600 and you will still lose £11 if the horse runs and doesn't win or placed.

Yes i appreciate that.  I shouldn't assume everyone has unlimited funds to tie up for a week in bf.  My bad.  I was just trying to find the horse which was the closest to bf with paddy with the benefit of NRNB.

[GreekWay]

Why does the NRNB affect the whole thing? If the horse doesn't run you get your money back with Paddy and win with BF so a win overall.

So its only a good thing, isn't?

yes but u wont be able to back or lay close to bf prices from the power prices because of the concession.  Looking at the prices they currently have i think one way to attack it might be to have £50 on Vaniteux at 12/1 nrnb lay it at 14/1 on bf in their current market for say £45 and write off £5.  If it pulls out u will win £45 on bf and get your money back from power and then maybe still be able to have another £50 on the day of the race under the concession as your original £50 has been classed as a non runner.  Not sure what would happen in this situation so you can effectively have two shots at it and win an additional £45 if it doesnt run on the day.  Any ideas if this would be possible under their rules?

I understand your thoughts and its a really good idea if you can find a possible NR in the race.

Problem is that you will need a big liability on BF to cover your bet with Paddy. If you back Vaniteux at current odds you will need a liability around £600 and you will still lose £11 if the horse runs and doesn't win or placed.

Yes i appreciate that.  I shouldn't assume everyone has unlimited funds to tie up for a week in bf.  My bad.  I was just trying to find the horse which was the closest to bf with paddy with the benefit of NRNB.

I don't mind having the funds tied for a decent time. I would probably have to use my credit card for that so a week or 4 weeks its exactly the same.

My 2nd question has to be how likely is that Vaniteux will be a NR in order to benefit even more from the offer or do we know a horse at relatively reasonable odds (considering the liability for the lay) that can be a potential NR?

Where is Mr. Channing when you need him?

[arbboy]

Why does the NRNB affect the whole thing? If the horse doesn't run you get your money back with Paddy and win with BF so a win overall.

So its only a good thing, isn't?

yes but u wont be able to back or lay close to bf prices from the power prices because of the concession.  Looking at the prices they currently have i think one way to attack it might be to have £50 on Vaniteux at 12/1 nrnb lay it at 14/1 on bf in their current market for say £45 and write off £5.  If it pulls out u will win £45 on bf and get your money back from power and then maybe still be able to have another £50 on the day of the race under the concession as your original £50 has been classed as a non runner.  Not sure what would happen in this situation so you can effectively have two shots at it and win an additional £45 if it doesnt run on the day.  Any ideas if this would be possible under their rules?

I understand your thoughts and its a really good idea if you can find a possible NR in the race.

Problem is that you will need a big liability on BF to cover your bet with Paddy. If you back Vaniteux at current odds you will need a liability around £600 and you will still lose £11 if the horse runs and doesn't win or placed.

Yes i appreciate that.  I shouldn't assume everyone has unlimited funds to tie up for a week in bf.  My bad.  I was just trying to find the horse which was the closest to bf with paddy with the benefit of NRNB.

I don't mind having the funds tied for a decent time. I would probably have to use my credit card for that so a week or 4 weeks its exactly the same.

My 2nd question has to be how likely is that Vaniteux will be a NR in order to benefit even more from the offer or do we know a horse at relatively reasonable odds (considering the liability for the lay) that can be a potential NR?

Where is Mr. Channing when you need him?

On point 1 credit card will incur 1.5% fees on deposits into betfair so that won't really work

point 2 - i would say unlikely given how its been backed today but anything can happen with over a week from chelt.  Someone will more knowledge of horses will probably be able to answer your questions much better than me.

[arbboy]

not sure if the thread had NBA mvp bet but lebron has just gone for 53 points (including 8 out of 8 from 3 point range) in the first 3 quarters of the game tonight with 7 rebounds and 5 assists.  Quite an incredible performance in just 3 quarters of an nba game.  Those stats are truely amazing for a whole game never mind 36 minutes.

[GreekWay]

Why does the NRNB affect the whole thing? If the horse doesn't run you get your money back with Paddy and win with BF so a win overall.

So its only a good thing, isn't?

yes but u wont be able to back or lay close to bf prices from the power prices because of the concession.  Looking at the prices they currently have i think one way to attack it might be to have £50 on Vaniteux at 12/1 nrnb lay it at 14/1 on bf in their current market for say £45 and write off £5.  If it pulls out u will win £45 on bf and get your money back from power and then maybe still be able to have another £50 on the day of the race under the concession as your original £50 has been classed as a non runner.  Not sure what would happen in this situation so you can effectively have two shots at it and win an additional £45 if it doesnt run on the day.  Any ideas if this would be possible under their rules?

I understand your thoughts and its a really good idea if you can find a possible NR in the race.

Problem is that you will need a big liability on BF to cover your bet with Paddy. If you back Vaniteux at current odds you will need a liability around £600 and you will still lose £11 if the horse runs and doesn't win or placed.

Yes i appreciate that.  I shouldn't assume everyone has unlimited funds to tie up for a week in bf.  My bad.  I was just trying to find the horse which was the closest to bf with paddy with the benefit of NRNB.

I don't mind having the funds tied for a decent time. I would probably have to use my credit card for that so a week or 4 weeks its exactly the same.

My 2nd question has to be how likely is that Vaniteux will be a NR in order to benefit even more from the offer or do we know a horse at relatively reasonable odds (considering the liability for the lay) that can be a potential NR?

Where is Mr. Channing when you need him?

On point 1 credit card will incur 1.5% fees on deposits into betfair so that won't really work

point 2 - i would say unlikely given how its been backed today but anything can happen with over a week from chelt.  Someone will more knowledge of horses will probably be able to answer your questions much better than me.

First point. Correct. It might be worth it only if you can find a possible NR.

Second point. Also correct. Probably someone from here will help us in the morning.


I might need to get the credit card out to pay for the Betting Emporium tips but I don't know if its worth it for me pricewise. Not that Neil will not post decent selections but I don't know if betting with my units will pay for the sub and turn some profit.

Fingers crossed Our Connor will win and then subs are sorted.

[arbboy]

61-7-5 for lebron.  Could have easily been 67 if he hadn't missed 2 wide open 3's late on.  Amazing effort.

[Marky147]

not sure if the thread had NBA mvp bet but lebron has just gone for 53 points (including 8 out of 8 from 3 point range) in the first 3 quarters of the game tonight with 7 rebounds and 5 assists.  Quite an incredible performance in just 3 quarters of an nba game.  Those stats are truely amazing for a whole game never mind 36 minutes.

Don't watch a lot, but don't think I've ever seen anyone score more than low 40s!


Not sure about MVP, but know a load are on Michael Carter Williams for rookie, and some at massive prices.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £111.38

Outstanding Bets £3814.07

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=24

A loss of £40 yesterday, at Cape Town with Nathan Lyon who had only bowled 4 overs with South Africa six wickets down. Fair way back from there in a one innings wickets bet!

Still, we are hopeful that Australia will beat South Africa, currently 78-0 leading by nearly 300 and no doubt declaring later to try and win the game, and currently trading 1.59 on Betfair

Last night Portsmouth's march to the League two Play offs continued with a creditable 0-0 draw at promotion chasing Chesterfield.

Tonight, a big one in League one for us. Sheffield United v Peterborough. A Blades win 4-3 with an Assombolonga hat-trick please.

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[sonour]

Why does the NRNB affect the whole thing? If the horse doesn't run you get your money back with Paddy and win with BF so a win overall.

So its only a good thing, isn't?

yes but u wont be able to back or lay close to bf prices from the power prices because of the concession.  Looking at the prices they currently have i think one way to attack it might be to have £50 on Vaniteux at 12/1 nrnb lay it at 14/1 on bf in their current market for say £45 and write off £5.  If it pulls out u will win £45 on bf and get your money back from power and then maybe still be able to have another £50 on the day of the race under the concession as your original £50 has been classed as a non runner.  Not sure what would happen in this situation so you can effectively have two shots at it and win an additional £45 if it doesnt run on the day.  Any ideas if this would be possible under their rules?

I understand your thoughts and its a really good idea if you can find a possible NR in the race.

Problem is that you will need a big liability on BF to cover your bet with Paddy. If you back Vaniteux at current odds you will need a liability around £600 and you will still lose £11 if the horse runs and doesn't win or placed.

Yes i appreciate that.  I shouldn't assume everyone has unlimited funds to tie up for a week in bf.  My bad.  I was just trying to find the horse which was the closest to bf with paddy with the benefit of NRNB.

I don't mind having the funds tied for a decent time. I would probably have to use my credit card for that so a week or 4 weeks its exactly the same.

My 2nd question has to be how likely is that Vaniteux will be a NR in order to benefit even more from the offer or do we know a horse at relatively reasonable odds (considering the liability for the lay) that can be a potential NR?

Where is Mr. Channing when you need him?

On point 1 credit card will incur 1.5% fees on deposits into betfair so that won't really work

point 2 - i would say unlikely given how its been backed today but anything can happen with over a week from chelt.  Someone will more knowledge of horses will probably be able to answer your questions much better than me.

First point. Correct. It might be worth it only if you can find a possible NR.

Second point. Also correct. Probably someone from here will help us in the morning.


I might need to get the credit card out to pay for the Betting Emporium tips but I don't know if its worth it for me pricewise. Not that Neil will not post decent selections but I don't know if betting with my units will pay for the sub and turn some profit.

Fingers crossed Our Connor will win and then subs are sorted.

Greekway,

There is a way to lock in a guaranteed profit with this offer for all out comes. I posted it earlier. I will post exact figures to lay on the morning of the race if anyone is interested.