Tips for Tikay

[scotty2hatty]

Greyhound Derby Final night too so I'm sure someone will offer something up on that before the evening is out.

[Bad Beat]

 Just to furter illustrate my point there may be another (not so strong) example of this in the greyhound derby final (I shall be studying the card all day).

 Farloe Ironman hasn't done much wrong in the event - just kept qualifying. Last week it was 16/1 to win the semi and after trouble it won with ease in a decent time. It is by far the best result for most of the bookies ante-post and it has drawn T1 in a final with no wide seeds. Despite all of that the bookies have decided to green up and it isn't even the favourite.

 Another feature of markets that can be exploited comes in here. New information which totally contradicts old perceived wisdom is hard to rate. The perceived wisdom here is that this dog was a "qualifier" that could make the final by plodding round. It threw that out of the windoww last week. I think it's very hard to know whether we should slightly forget last week's run or try to forget the preconceptions we had about the dog before. When I'm not sure what to do in these situations I refer to the market.

 I'm not that strong and I don't put it up as a bet but I have backed this hound at 11/2 on Betfair. I think that is taking advantage of a weakness in the market.

[TRIP5]

I nearly had a bet for you today. I'll mention it anyway because I think it illustrates a point that is interesting and I think the thread should be about learning collectively.

 I'm a massive fan of the bunny.

 Generally I think punters like the tortoise not the hare. They like to try and find one in the pack who might come out and beat the leader. Over the years it has often been the case in all sports that the obvious leader is often too big a price and that punters will look to get it beat. This theory can particularly throw up value in things like golf tournaments where the third round leader is often a much bigger price than his chance. This can often be down to bookmaker liabilities.

 If I had to criticise this thread, (and I'm not doing it for the sake of it, I like the thread a lot), I would say that too many people are just trying to pick a winner. There is zero chance of the thread achieving a long-term profit just by this approach. It is mandatory that the bets are value for some other reason other than "I fancy that to happen".

 The three most common reasons that bets can be "value" and can achieve the goal are inside information which is great but doesn't come around to often, the quality of research being better than that of the oddsmakers - I think the thread is very good at that and I',m certain the level of thought is way above that of the average odds compiler at Sid James, Bet £3.65 and BlueSqurrel.

...

<3 you.. friend me pls... aceness post!!

The fact is tho.. people play on this thread for the sweat as well as the profit!

I've taken lolpunts from here and lost but that was never really the point in taking the punt...

If you think this thread is a money making venture then you iz in the wrong forum my friend

xx

[MereNovice]

Thanks for your posts Neil, as always.
I'm learning a lot.

[tikay]

Thanks Neil, & yes, we all want to find something to beat the jolly, it's human nature.

I think, at times, we are not selective enough, though again, we WANT to have a bet, & we WANT to be involved, it's the nature of the thread, so will always occur, we just have to contain it a bit sometimes.

"Research", I LOVE those ones, henrik is great at that, but so are many others, with, say, Jose finding some nice ones, & Brent's one yesterday, "I spoke to some Russian Experts on Twitter". He may have been levelling us, of course, but I was snap sold.

Today's golf? The early scores are comng in low, Morrison remains 5/1, with Donald, 4 shots behind, 9/4. I don't know enough about Morrison to know if he is likely to implode, (I once called Oustheizen a "one-shot wonder", & cringe every time I am reminded), but the price seems tempting.  I'll leave that to our golf sorts to sort, but I think your point is irrespective of golf, or specialist, knowledge, the FACTS suggest 5/1 is a big price in such circumstances. Sometimes knowing too much is a dangerous thing.

Unrelated - sort of - but I just read a book called "Diary of a Hedge Fund manager". The geezer wrote "in this business, being right EARLY is called "being wrong". He was being ironic, of course (he got the tin tack for shorting sub-primes 6 months too soon). It might just be the case in betting though, being right early is generally good. When Steve Davis first won the World's, I had him at all prices from 16/1, & made a killing. In the following years, I gave most of it back, betting him blind @ 6/4 or whatever.

[Bad Beat]

 Seeing as I've spent 30 minutes I couldn't really afford here today - and to avoid people saying "What was the point of all that guff?" I'll give you a bet I am having/have had.

 I hate grand prix as a sport and I no very little about it. I do have a brilliant record in betting on it though.

 The thing that everyone knows about Monaco is that the guy on pole always wins. Paddy Power offer 5/4 that the unamed pole guy wins which is interesting.

 This morning Lewis Hamiton is 9/4 to win the qualifying yet he is 3/1 to win the race. Given that he can still win the race when he is 2nd or 3rd in qualifying, (granted he can win qualifying and lose the race), isn't that an anomoly?

 I think the grand prix races this year have very few true runners. I think peple have been a little confused by the early (non-Euro) results and that in a few weeks we'll realise it's alays the same four guys. I think that Ladbrokes, BlueSq and Corals (joke firm obv) are sticking their necks out by offering 1/4 1,2,3 in the races.

 Some may have suspended for now but I think you can still get on.

 Recommend a decent bet at 3/1 each-way.

[tikay]

NOT coming up?

Quins play Leicster @ Twickers today (3pm), a HUGE event, so I'll be stranded at home, as the traffic round here will be terrible.

I'm surprised Tighty has not stuck something up for that, he is a long time Tigers nuthugger (see, "nuthugger", I was called one of dem yesterday as to Cooter MANTIS). But Tighty is very good at seperating facts from emotions. Trust me, he is.

Nothing for the Greyhound Derby, (tonight) either.

I'd like, at this point, to wish Scotty2hatty good luck in that tonight. He put up some tips for us, I bimbled & dithered & kept missing the price, but the last I heard, he had 2 in the Final I think. Hope he scoops, though I have no idea what ones he tipped.

We have nothing for the F1 in Monaco, either, though on past experience, thats probably a good thing, we are 100% negative on F1 so far, & vying with BasketBall for bottom of the ROI pile. 

[tikay]

Seeing as I've spent 30 minutes I couldn't really afford here today - and to avoid people saying "What was the point of all that guff?" I'll give you a bet I am having/have had.

 I hate grand prix as a sport and I no very little about it. I do have a brilliant record in betting on it though.

 The thing that everyone knows about Monaco is that the guy on pole always wins. Paddy Power offer 5/4 that the unamed pole guy wins which is interesting.

 This morning Lewis Hamiton is 9/4 to win the qualifying yet he is 3/1 to win the race. Given that he can still win the race when he is 2nd or 3rd in qualifying, (granted he can win qualifying and lose the race), isn't that an anomoly?

 I think the grand prix races this year have very few true runners. I think peple have been a little confused by the early (non-Euro) results and that in a few weeks we'll realise it's alays the same four guys. I think that Ladbrokes, BlueSq and Corals (joke firm obv) are sticking their necks out by offering 1/4 1,2,3 in the races.

 Some may have suspended for now but I think you can still get on.

 Recommend a decent bet at 3/1 each-way.

Clarify, please.

Each way?

Hamilton? Hamilton appears still to be 3/1 in several places.

[Bad Beat]

 "Recommend a decent bet at 3/1 each-way."

 (hopefully that clarifies it).

[pokerfan]

Football.

We have £60 on Huddersfield to beat Sheff Utd today (sorry Phil!), @ 15/8, quite a decent bet I think, down to Josehdino, who is very selective with his tips. The game starts @ 3pm today.

We currently have no interest in today's England match.

Brent gave us a right corker for Euro12, Kerzhakov top Russian Scorer, half of blonde followed him in. A few weeks sweat are expected, GREAT tip.

Boxing.

We are on Audley Harrison tonight - not a sentence I thought I'd ever hear. We have a MAXIMUM £150 @ 8/15 down to Bazza.

We also have an unlikely draw, Frock & Bute, a Bazza Banzai, a tenner @ 22/1.  

Entertainment

Hardly "entertaininment", but the Russian Grannies step up to the plate tonight to strut their stuff, we have £30 EW @ 9/1 down to Bobby 1.

We have also invested £51 in laying Sweden, thanks to Chompy, who we hope can achieve his maiden thread win tonight, after 49 duds.

Not sure, but I assume "The Voice" is tonight too, in which we have Vince Dude Kidd, down to Cooter, our Tosh Curry. £10 @ 22/1. I might just kiss MANTIS if this one gets home, or arrange a date for him with Mr Keys if it loses.

Big Fred day then, with Football, Cricket, Boxing, ESC, & The Voice all in action.  

We can barely hide our excitement.

Ha, great pic,

Gl with the Huddersfield bet, hope we p*ss it for you.

Click to see full-size image.

[scotty2hatty]

I'd like, at this point, to wish Scotty2hatty good luck in that tonight. He put up some tips for us, I bimbled & dithered & kept missing the price, but the last I heard, he had 2 in the Final I think. Hope he scoops, though I have no idea what ones he tipped.  

Appreciated. I do have two in the final, one of which I gave you at 40/1 and 50s on the exchanges, Coolavanny Bert, now the 3/1 favourite. I'm ridiculously excited for tonight's racing.

Coolavanny Bert is an interesting one, owned by John Gardner and previously trained by Kelly Findlay. Gardner, I think, wasn't happy with Findlay's training so removed him and, being a retired trainer himself, started training Bert. This all happened a little while before the Derby I believe. A true one-man-and-his-dog story.

[tikay]

"Recommend a decent bet at 3/1 each-way."

 (hopefully that clarifies it).

Lol, behave, speak slowly, you know I can't read fast.

I'm gonna get so in trouble for this, but most books are closed.

We have £40 EW @ 3/1, (but only one FIFTH odds, 1,2 3), on Hamilton, with BetFred, to win the Monaco Grand Prix. Would have bet bigger, but worried about the "one fifth", & my Account with Betfred needed topping up, but they rejected my plastic, the very cheek of them. Do they not know who I am? 

ON

 Monaco Grand Prix
Race Winner
EW 1/5 1,2,3 Hamilton, Lewis 3/1 
Total stake £ 80.00
Estimated return £ 224.00

Full stake £ 80.00
Full estimated return £ 224.00

[tikay]

I'd like, at this point, to wish Scotty2hatty good luck in that tonight. He put up some tips for us, I bimbled & dithered & kept missing the price, but the last I heard, he had 2 in the Final I think. Hope he scoops, though I have no idea what ones he tipped.  

Appreciated. I do have two in the final, one of which I gave you at 40/1 and 50s on the exchanges, Coolavanny Bert, now the 3/1 favourite. I'm ridiculously excited for tonight's racing.

Coolavanny Bert is an interesting one, owned by John Gardner and previously trained by Kelly Findlay. Gardner, I think, wasn't happy with Findlay's training so removed him and, being a retired trainer himself, started training Bert. This all happened a little while before the Derby I believe. A true one-man-and-his-dog story.

Fantastic, & the very best of luck tonight.

I recall the "Bert" tip now, actually. I saw a filmed piece about Gardner, he built a little luxury kennel in his back garden for Bert & all sorts, great stuff.

Hope you have a grand evening. What was the other one you have in the Final?

[tikay]

The English Greyhound Derby is almost certainly the highlight of my sports betting year and whilst I know there are other greyhound racing enthusiasts on blonde none have thrown up their opinions, either in this thread or any others. Therefore I thought I'd offer my opinions and advise on a couple of bets.

"Early pace wins the race". A lot of dog punters tailor their bets purely around that phrase and here at Wimbledon we should too. The standout performance of the 1st round, both in terms of sectional times and race times, was that of Bubbly Phoenix who raced to the bend in 4:68 and didn't stop on his way to scoring a fastest of the round 28:31. He was 20/1 before round 1 and even bigger before an impressive trial prior to that. A schoolboy error led to me missing the 20s and his price has crashed in to a best price 8.6/1 on Betfair and I genuinely think he is still a bet at that price when compared with the other market leaders.

Bubbly Phoenix is a wide seed and is very likely to get a favourable draw in every round, whilst hopefully avoiding the likely trouble at the first bend that can often occur when we have 6 class dogs.

If you decide to follow my advice, I'd go for a straight win bet as we've probably missed the e/w value. Perhaps £20 win @ the 9.6 on Betfair.


The favourite is last year's champion, Taylors Sky, who I don't really like at the prices and I think the real outstanding value lies in the classy Coolavanny Bert who I am certain there is more to come from at Wimbledon. Bert has broken the track record at Sittingbourne and has carded cracking times at Henlow this year too. QAw, EP and the odd VQAw are dotted all over his results, and as I said before that is key here.I'm topping up the win part of my bet on Betfair before Friday with 50 on offer but I recommend something like £15ew @ the 40/1 on offer with bet365 who are paying 1/4 odds top 6.

Lastly throw a 5er ew on Bombolini @ 200/1 on bet365, purely based on his first round performance where he broke quite smartly and went round in a good time. There could be more to come from him.


You may decide to not follow these suggestions but at the very least I hope it provokes some discussion.

There it is - this was nearly 4 weeks ago. Top Tipping, scotty. And I missed it.

[scotty2hatty]

I'd like, at this point, to wish Scotty2hatty good luck in that tonight. He put up some tips for us, I bimbled & dithered & kept missing the price, but the last I heard, he had 2 in the Final I think. Hope he scoops, though I have no idea what ones he tipped.  

Appreciated. I do have two in the final, one of which I gave you at 40/1 and 50s on the exchanges, Coolavanny Bert, now the 3/1 favourite. I'm ridiculously excited for tonight's racing.

Coolavanny Bert is an interesting one, owned by John Gardner and previously trained by Kelly Findlay. Gardner, I think, wasn't happy with Findlay's training so removed him and, being a retired trainer himself, started training Bert. This all happened a little while before the Derby I believe. A true one-man-and-his-dog story.

Fantastic, & the very best of luck tonight.

I recall the "Bert" tip now, actually. I saw a filmed piece about Gardner, he built a little luxury kennel in his back garden for Bert & all sorts, great stuff.

Hope you have a grand evening. What was the other one you have in the Final?

The six dog, Blonde Snapper, backed him at a range of prices from about 80s down to 40s. Not been given a hope by most but is my biggest winner and I certainly am not discounting him. Getting stronger and great competition dog it seems.