Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Wm Hill offer 14/1 for Ronnie to win the World Championships and make a 147.

Presumably, the maths lads can assess if that reps value.

My initial thoughts were it feels pretty good so I lumped on. Now I'll get told the maths don't add up.

My thoughts were - it should give me a good sweat - ON

I will get my Spready out shortly and calculate the odds, then do the inverse relationship, excluding implied reverse odds for splitting the handle.

Leave it with me.

[Marky147]

Wm Hill offer 14/1 for Ronnie to win the World Championships and make a 147.

Presumably, the maths lads can assess if that reps value.

My initial thoughts were it feels pretty good so I lumped on. Now I'll get told the maths don't add up.

My thoughts were - it should give me a good sweat - ON

I will get my Spready out shortly and calculate the odds, then do the inverse relationship, excluding implied reverse odds for splitting the handle.

Leave it with me.

Ronnie and Robertson should keep me amused for a couple weeks.

Also, I get the added bonus of shouting at the TV everytime he turns down the chance of a maxi!

[BigAdz]

My aftertiming and Frank Spencer senses have been working overtime.

Sounds like Gotham has a new hero

[Omm]

Wm Hill offer 14/1 for Ronnie to win the World Championships and make a 147.

Presumably, the maths lads can assess if that reps value.

My initial thoughts were it feels pretty good so I lumped on. Now I'll get told the maths don't add up.

My thoughts were - it should give me a good sweat - ON

I will get my Spready out shortly and calculate the odds, then do the inverse relationship, excluding implied reverse odds for splitting the handle.

Leave it with me.

Ronnie and Robertson should keep me amused for a couple weeks.

Also, I get the added bonus of shouting at the TV everytime he turns down the chance of a maxi!

Is the maths as simple as dividing the current amount of maximums he has made(3) by the number of years he has played the worlds (20) or the other way round 20//3= 6.6 x 2.4 ( best current odds to win) = 16.0. Probably add a point in for current form but take it off for financial incentive (due to his history) so that probably evens it out. Meaning it's probably not value.

Anyway I've tried the maths my way, if Arboy, Doobs or anyone else would like to correct my thinking please feel free. Hopefully I won't be to far off.

Flame away.

[Ironside]

Wm Hill offer 14/1 for Ronnie to win the World Championships and make a 147.

Presumably, the maths lads can assess if that reps value.

My initial thoughts were it feels pretty good so I lumped on. Now I'll get told the maths don't add up.

My thoughts were - it should give me a good sweat - ON

I will get my Spready out shortly and calculate the odds, then do the inverse relationship, excluding implied reverse odds for splitting the handle.

Leave it with me.

Ronnie and Robertson should keep me amused for a couple weeks.

Also, I get the added bonus of shouting at the TV everytime he turns down the chance of a maxi!

Is the maths as simple as dividing the current amount of maximums he has made(3) by the number of years he has played the worlds (20) or the other way round 20//3= 6.6 x 2.4 ( best current odds to win) = 16.0. Probably add a point in for current form but take it off for financial incentive (due to his history) so that probably evens it out. Meaning it's probably not value.

Anyway I've tried the maths my way, if Arboy, Doobs or anyone else would like to correct my thinking please feel free. Hopefully I won't be to far off.

Flame away.

he would be something like 4-1 to make a 147 if he wanted too but he doesnt really want too because of the lack of a prize and infact will do his upmost not to make a 147 so its more like a 20-1 shot he makes a 147 so there is no value

[Chompy]

I'm with ironside here.

We need at least one goal from Britt this evening to keep it interesting.

Here's a bit of Ronnie and Robertson for you marky.

[Tal]

Three weeks until the NFL Draft. We know who gets to pick first: the Houston Texans. They get to choose any of the available college footballers to add to their squad for the forthcoming season.

There are four players that are being mooted amongst the knowers and the speculators:

Teddy Bridgewater (QB)
Johnny Manziel (QB - remember him from last year, Fred?)
Jadevon Clowney (Defensive End)
Blake Bortles (QB)

So that's three starring quarterbacks and one defensive end.

For those who don't follow much NFL, the Texans are rubbish but have - as is the way with the way this game works - some very good players and one of those is JJ Watt. He's a slightly unhinged sack machine, who eats quarterbacks for breakfast. He is one of the best Defensive Ends in the NFL. I'm assuming they'd be lining Clowney up as a partner for Watt, rather than a replacement. In a division with Andrew Luck and two lesser QBs (Jacksonville and Tennessee), that makes them competitive if they can get something going when they have the ball. Clowney is 6/5 to be the first round pick.

But we don't want to be doing that, do we?

Clowney seems - according to the internet - to have a less than delightful work ethic. He's getting a lot of press because he's a big and fast lad with superstar potential. But do they need other positions more?

Against Titans, Jaguars and Colts, scoring points is going to be important, as these aren't great sides. A talented QB with options should give the fans something to cheer about. The owners can't be popular, given the terrible last few years. Why pick someone who's only going to be splitting the highlight reel defensive plays?

The Jags will surely be picking a QB and they'll likely get their first choice. Maybe a case of picking the one that your rivals want?

Quarterback for me.

They all have their merits. The one that stands out for me is Johnny Manziel. The scouts supposedly prefer Bridgwater, but owners seem to run these teams (particularly the ones at the bottom...) and they are rumoured to prefer Manziel. He's a Texas boy, nicknamed "Johnny Football", with his family having made their money in petroleum. He's an exciting prospect as a player and is friends with Drake and LeBron. He's going to sell shirts jerseys. He's 7/1 with Billy Mountain.

What do our NFL elders think? When is a good time to bet on this market? Is there ever a good time to bet on this market?!

[tikay]

Three weeks until the NFL Draft. We know who gets to pick first: the Houston Texans. They get to choose any of the available college footballers to add to their squad for the forthcoming season.

There are four players that are being mooted amongst the knowers and the speculators:

Teddy Bridgewater (QB)
Johnny Manziel (QB - remember him from last year, Fred?)
Jadevon Clowney (Defensive End)
Blake Bortles (QB)

So that's three starring quarterbacks and one defensive end.

For those who don't follow much NFL, the Texans are rubbish but have - as is the way with the way this game works - some very good players and one of those is JJ Watt. He's a slightly unhinged sack machine, who eats quarterbacks for breakfast. He is one of the best Defensive Ends in the NFL. I'm assuming they'd be lining Clowney up as a partner for Watt, rather than a replacement. In a division with Andrew Luck and two lesser QBs (Jacksonville and Tennessee), that makes them competitive if they can get something going when they have the ball. Clowney is 6/5 to be the first round pick.

But we don't want to be doing that, do we?

Clowney seems - according to the internet - to have a less than delightful work ethic. He's getting a lot of press because he's a big and fast lad with superstar potential. But do they need other positions more?

Against Titans, Jaguars and Colts, scoring points is going to be important, as these aren't great sides. A talented QB with options should give the fans something to cheer about. The owners can't be popular, given the terrible last few years. Why pick someone who's only going to be splitting the highlight reel defensive plays?

The Jags will surely be picking a QB and they'll likely get their first choice. Maybe a case of picking the one that your rivals want?

Quarterback for me.

They all have their merits. The one that stands out for me is Johnny Manziel. The scouts supposedly prefer Bridgwater, but owners seem to run these teams (particularly the ones at the bottom...) and they are rumoured to prefer Manziel. He's a Texas boy, nicknamed "Johnny Football", with his family having made their money in petroleum. He's an exciting prospect as a player and is friends with Drake and LeBron. He's going to sell shirts jerseys. He's 7/1 with Billy Mountain.

What do our NFL elders think? When is a good time to bet on this market? Is there ever a good time to bet on this market?!

Tighty will be salivating when he sees that........

Looks interesting to me, but I've no real idea what it all means.

Tighty went through the card on the NFL draft last year, as I recall.

[TightEnd]

No no no no no.

[JaffaCake]

I stopped reading at the fella called Clowney. Max bet?

[BorntoBubble]

Diego Costa / David villa FGS. Tonight?

Thoughts bet 365 jobbie?

I think it's very borderline but fancy athelectico and them two between them score most if their goals!

[tikay]

No no no no no.

 

[rinswun]

With three decent quarterbacks, who are all pretty close, available early I think the Texans are more likely to trade the first overall than pick someone over than Clowney. I actually think Clowney is probably decent value at 6/5.

[TightEnd]

Its a draft with a lot of depth but to my mind none of the QBs are a sure pick at number 1.

I believe the Texans will take Clowney, put him next to JJ Watt and create a dominant defense, then try to select their future QB with the first pick in the second round

Manziel might go 3 or 4, or could go at the end of the first round. 7-1 first pick in no way compensates you for the actual possibility he'll go first, whatever the fan hype.


The thing about Texans drafting a QB vs. Clowney: Houston was 11th in league total yardage with Keenum/Schaub. Turnovers killed them.

Texans were -20 in turnover differential. History tells us that's just poor luck. Same personnel next season, still wouldn't happen again.

In 2012 team with worst Turnover differential? Chiefs at -24. Improved to +18 in 2013, made the play offs, big turn around team.

Texans were second best team in the league turnover differential in 2011 and 2012, then worst team in 2013.


So, eliminate the mistakes on offense at QB, and you are much improved team, this does not imply a rookie QB

I think the Texans are one of the candidates to do a "chiefs" and completely turn round next year


-


as a general rule PP will put up markets for how many players per position in the first round of the draft, and these prices will contain some inefficiencies.

We will do those, and win, without having to get individual players pegged to individual teams.

[Tal]

No no no no no.

 

I might have put this up as a way of getting Tighty's 2014 draft ITT.

 

I honestly can't see them trading the first pick and the commentators seem unanimous on that, from what I've read.

I'm really asking whether there's value to be found in this market, when there is so much speculation about. Surely, Fred can make better and more educated guesses than some of these bookies?