Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

BMU have Brighton at 9/4 to make the top six.

So 14/1 means they'd be about 7/2 to win the play-offs, assuming 9/4 is the correct price.

Not sure there's any mileage in it tbh.

[TightEnd]

BMU have Brighton at 9/4 to make the top six.

So 14/1 means they'd be about 7/2 to win the play-offs, assuming 9/4 is the correct price.

Not sure there's any mileage in it tbh.

and 7/2 would be about the right price, they tend to price up

5/2 3/1 3/1 7/2 and

Derby 5/2
QPR/Wigan 3/1
Brighton or Reading 7/2

is there or therabouts, we'd all have a view but it would be a close heat.

14/1 is right, its not 14/1 about a true 10/1 shot

[aaron1867]

Maybe I am looking at it in a different light.

Brighton are 11/8 to beat Forest

They'll be 7/2ish play-offs

probably that makes them around 9/1 to do both, so that's why I look upon 14's as good? perhaps they are priced like this dependent on the whole even if they win they may not make top 6?

[TightEnd]

Maybe I am looking at it in a different light.

Brighton are 11/8 to beat Forest

They'll be 7/2ish play-offs

probably that makes them around 9/1 to do both, so that's why I look upon 14's as good? perhaps they are priced like this dependent on the whole even if they win they may not make top 6?

because they can beat Forest and finish 7th

Wigan I would ignore, assume they are in (beat Birmingham etc)

Reading are at home, Brighton away etc etc

[Doobs]

Good luck us



£25 on Newcastle DNB @ 12/ (BMU) if you could, Tikay.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-newcastle/draw-no-bet

Done.

BET PLACED

Must be a good bet if it is very hard to put my money down.  Even I am getting caught up in this worst thing ever in the history of the entire Universe and anything that existed before business.

[redarmi]

Red/Argue....how do u decide what's bes, 10/11 at one total or evens at a point higher or whatever. Is there proper maths behind it or is it a feel thing? Same for if say we can back a horse at 16/1 ew with 4 places or 14/1 ew with 5 places (or whatever).

Is that a question best asked on the maths thread?

The NBA are fairly easy to work out.  Each individual point is likely to land a certain amount of time so has a value.  In the NBA for a regular pointspread most half points are worth about 0.05 in decimals.  So-3 2.0 is about the same as -3.5 2.05.  They differ slightly as some pointspreads are more likely to fall and I have charts for them but as a rule 0.05 is fine.

As for horseracing places - feel is better.  There is some very heavy academic work on how likely a horse is to place and nobody has "solved" it as such but if you look at enough of them you get a reasonably good feel.  An okay rule of thumb is if you turn the prices into percentages so in the case you said.  The place price at 14/1 is 7/2 (14/4) or 22.22% for 5 places.  For 4 places it is 4/1 (16/4) or 20%so they are effectively they are saying there is a 2.22% chance of your horse coming 5th (22.22%-20%) which is about a 45/1 shot so ask yourself would I back this horse to come fifth at 45/1?  That sounds like value to me so I would take the extra place and even if I only thought it was fair value I would take it because the extra place reduces my variance.  Does that make sense?

[GreekWay]

Is there any reasoning why we do not use Pinnacle at all?

[Doobs]

Red/Argue....how do u decide what's bes, 10/11 at one total or evens at a point higher or whatever. Is there proper maths behind it or is it a feel thing? Same for if say we can back a horse at 16/1 ew with 4 places or 14/1 ew with 5 places (or whatever).

Is that a question best asked on the maths thread?

The NBA are fairly easy to work out.  Each individual point is likely to land a certain amount of time so has a value.  In the NBA for a regular pointspread most half points are worth about 0.05 in decimals.  So-3 2.0 is about the same as -3.5 2.05.  They differ slightly as some pointspreads are more likely to fall and I have charts for them but as a rule 0.05 is fine.

As for horseracing places - feel is better.  There is some very heavy academic work on how likely a horse is to place and nobody has "solved" it as such but if you look at enough of them you get a reasonably good feel.  An okay rule of thumb is if you turn the prices into percentages so in the case you said.  The place price at 14/1 is 7/2 (14/4) or 22.22% for 5 places.  For 4 places it is 4/1 (16/4) or 20%so they are effectively they are saying there is a 2.22% chance of your horse coming 5th (22.22%-20%) which is about a 45/1 shot so ask yourself would I back this horse to come fifth at 45/1?  That sounds like value to me so I would take the extra place and even if I only thought it was fair value I would take it because the extra place reduces my variance.  Does that make sense?

Don't think so.  You haven't factored in the extra money paid on first.  Will try and put something in the maths thread, but becoming a bad week for me.  Just looking at it, I think it is probably fairly evenly balanced in this case.  Nitty is probably best if things are of equal value.   I haven't done any maths.

Sure somebody had a spreadsheet for this; doubleup?

[exstream]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/italy/serie-a/sassuolo-v-juventus/draw-no-bet

Is this the same as the Newcastle game?

Victor standout price.

[redarmi]

Yes you are right of course.  Still fairly sure in this spot the extra place is worthwhile because the +EV in the extra place is worth more than then EV you are giving up on the win portion.  Probably fairly close though,

[McGlashan]

Is there any reasoning why we do not use Pinnacle at all?

Probably no reason at all other than Tikay doesn't have an account there.

Someone beevered on about being an affiliate for Pinny, their name eludes me though.

[arbboy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27193835

Surely must be worth a look at to score first/anytime scorer here if the prices are standard based on this?  He surely will start his final game and/or take any pens given leicester has nothing at all to play for and it's literally going to be a promotion party.  Tighty to add his considerable leicester local knowledge to this before any action.

[Marky147]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27193835

Surely must be worth a look at to score first/anytime scorer here if the prices are standard based on this?  He surely will start his final game and/or take any pens given leicester has nothing at all to play for and it's literally going to be a promotion party.  Tighty to add his considerable leicester local knowledge to this before any action.

Would prefer they put Nugent to work, and have him bang in a hatrick!

[GreekWay]

For NBA bettors:

Clippers didn't train today at all.

[Marky147]

I think Pads is probably preparing us some nice old humble pie to eat... That aside, how moronic was that from the goalscorer?

Ought to slap him with 2 weeks wages and see how he likes those apples!