Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Worth saving on Greg Robinson as number one pick at 16/1

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/24547731/falcons-could-move-to-no-1-for-greg-robinson-not-jadeveon-clowney

From everything I read Houston are very unlikely to take a QB with the number one pick.

No one will trade up to take a QB because there's so many excellent players at that position available, they will wait their turn and pick the highest on their board available.

I think Clowney will be number 1 pick, but if Atlanta really want Robinson, he's very unlikely to still be available at 6 so they'd have to trade up.

The Rams could well pick him at 2, so they'd have to trade with Houston to get him.

16/1 seems very fair.

i think its important to remember that a week before the draft there are a thousand and one stories, and some are info and some are mis-info

i am leaning a bit more that houston will trade out though. in the pre-draft press conference yesterday the GM said "if we keep the first pick" twice in the first three minutes of his remarks when generally comments on these types of things are much more circumspect

with the rams at 2 generally regarded to be a sure thing for robinson then atlanta trading there for him would be the only way to get him. i just think that anyone trading there would do so for clowney, but of course everyone knows that and its in prices 

[TightEnd]

Take the rest of the Baldock bet down.

done

we have £91 at 1.6 placed

[TightEnd]

should the newcastle protest effect the price?

what protest? what price? the outright for tomorrow yes?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/newcastle-v-cardiff-city/winner

you fancy Cardiff to get a result?

[The Camel]

Worth saving on Greg Robinson as number one pick at 16/1

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/24547731/falcons-could-move-to-no-1-for-greg-robinson-not-jadeveon-clowney

From everything I read Houston are very unlikely to take a QB with the number one pick.

No one will trade up to take a QB because there's so many excellent players at that position available, they will wait their turn and pick the highest on their board available.

I think Clowney will be number 1 pick, but if Atlanta really want Robinson, he's very unlikely to still be available at 6 so they'd have to trade up.

The Rams could well pick him at 2, so they'd have to trade with Houston to get him.

16/1 seems very fair.

i think its important to remember that a week before the draft there are a thousand and one stories, and some are info and some are mis-info

i am leaning a bit more that houston will trade out though. in the pre-draft press conference yesterday the GM said "if we keep the first pick" twice in the first three minutes of his remarks when generally comments on these types of things are much more circumspect

with the rams at 2 generally regarded to be a sure thing for robinson then atlanta trading there for him would be the only way to get him. i just think that anyone trading there would do so for clowney, but of course everyone knows that and its in prices 

I think Bortles is massively underpriced right now. He should be 8 or 10/1.

Only way he goes one is if Houston pick him, and that is looking increasingly unlikely.

So either Clowney is still value at 8/13 or one (or more) of the other players is too big.

Don't think there's anything wrong having a fiver or tenner on at 16/1.

James Willoughby fancies it.

[The Camel]

I did text u Keith to stop you backing it- what you've done is added the chances of reading losing twice in both equations. So it's Reading losing x Brighton not losing + Reading drawing x Brighton winning.

So LvDW+DvW
You have LvDW+LDvW

So 19.5%+ 12.99%= 32.5%

So between 2/1 and 9/4

Yep, thought I must have made an error.

Thanks David.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £35

Outstanding Bets £3887.02

Free bets to use £10 William Hill, £25 Betfred

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=24

No bets completed yesterday. Going early on the daily as I am offline tomorrow morning, on DTD shifts/odd hours all weekend. tikay is lined up with ipad, bookmakers accounts and misclicking fingers at the ready for 2000 guineas, scoop6 and final day of the football league...

In news

- Robertson trails 7-9 after two sessions with Selby, drawing today 4-4. Play to a finish tomorrow and  expect it to be 17-15+ at the end. All of which must play into the hands of the Rocket, who became the first player ever to win his crucible quarter AND semi with a session to spare



- In cycling after 3 of 5 stages of the Tour of Romandie there is no sign of Rohan Dennis in the top 10. cheapwetsuit to update

- Basketball tonight the Spurs play the Mavs in game six, leading 3-2 so this could be the elimination game. got to beware Dirk...

Click to see full-size image.

- The Nets are 3-2 down to the Raptors and play their game six tonight. Smeone to update both results in the morning please

-In the MLB tonight the Orioles play the Twins, the Royals play the Tigers and the Yankees the Rays




tomorrow....

Click to see full-size image.

and goodbye to



and good luck to...

Football Positions to settle tomorrow

goalscorers

- Will Britt play?
- Will Nugent play?
- Ings needs to score at Reading to give us a shot
- Mooney needs a brace +
- Vokes,Rhodes and Kee are dead bets
- Winnall is a winner, Hogan should still come in each way

BetVictor   May 2104   Football   League One Top Scorer   Britt Assombolonga   40/1   12.5
WilliamHill   May-2014   Football   Championship top goalscorer   David Nugent   20/1   20             £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
Boylesports   May-2014   Football   Championship top goalscorer   Sam Vokes   20/1   20             £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
Coral           May-2014   Football   Championship top goalscorer   Danny Ings   25/1   40             £20 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
WilliamHill   May-2014   Football   League One top goalscorer   David Mooney   10/1   50             £25 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
Betfair   May 2014   Football   League Two Top Goalscorer   Billy Kee    22   10
Bet365   May-2014   Football   League 2 top goalscorer   Scott Hogan    5/1   15   £7.50 e/w 1/4 1-3
Chompy   May-2014   Football   League Two Top Goalscorer   Scott Hogan    4/1   200   £100 e/w 1/4 1-3
Coral   May-2014   Football   League Two Top Goalscorer   Sam Winnall   10/11   110
unibet   May-2014   Football   Championship top goalscorer   Rhodes   14/1   14
betfair   may-2014   football   league one top goalscorer   sam baldock   1.5   91   £109 unmatched

Watford v Hudd, Yeovil v Middlesborough, Watford need a better result than Middlesborough

WilliamHill   May 2014   Football   SkyBet Championship   Watford top Half   2/7   350

Tranmere are 4th bottom a point behind Crewe. Tranmere v Bradford, Crewe v Preston. We probably need Bradford to produce for us

Coral   May-2014   Football   League One Relegation   Tranmere   3/1   50

Ulloa home and hosed....

Chompy   May-2014   Football   top Brighton Goalscorer   Ulloa   5/1   10


the championship matches kick off at 12.15pm leagues 1 and 2 at 3pm

would be very good to sweat these through the afternoon on here.....
 

[Nico29]

Going back to the England World Cup squad jaffa was talking about the other day.  Goal keepers.  Ben Foster 1/2 and Fraser Forster 4/7 both ladbrokes.  What cases can people make for these not being value bets. I think both are bets it would be virtually impossible imo for both to get beat and highly likely both win.

Both are overpriced, surely.

Forster is clear second choice, and the only realistic alternative to Foster is Ruddy? Stockdale maybe?

I can't find the right link, if someone could pop it up...but an outfield player or two looked odds against when should be odds on when i looked a week ago. and now i can't remember who

I think Foster is a near cert and backed him at 8/13 a few days back, posted about it after jaffa's post.

Woy knows him from west brom and 1/2 still looks fair to me. The general 2/7 is more like the true price imo.

Personally I am not convinced Forster is a 4/7 shot and if forced to bet think Butland and Stockdale are prob better value at the party prices available.

Would not back Ruddy at 5/4 but he's obv a serious danger too.

Am annoyed I didn't weigh in on the 1/4 on Lallana available up until yesterday.

1/8 is a more fair price, it's just about not getting injured now.

Can't see many outfield players at odds against i'd be backing at the moment, most look rightly priced, maybe Lambert@5-4 is a touch large but nothing huge, could still see Defoe or Carroll getting picked ahead of him.

www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/england/to-make-world-cup-squad

[TightEnd]

Worth saving on Greg Robinson as number one pick at 16/1

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/24547731/falcons-could-move-to-no-1-for-greg-robinson-not-jadeveon-clowney

From everything I read Houston are very unlikely to take a QB with the number one pick.

No one will trade up to take a QB because there's so many excellent players at that position available, they will wait their turn and pick the highest on their board available.

I think Clowney will be number 1 pick, but if Atlanta really want Robinson, he's very unlikely to still be available at 6 so they'd have to trade up.

The Rams could well pick him at 2, so they'd have to trade with Houston to get him.

16/1 seems very fair.

i think its important to remember that a week before the draft there are a thousand and one stories, and some are info and some are mis-info

i am leaning a bit more that houston will trade out though. in the pre-draft press conference yesterday the GM said "if we keep the first pick" twice in the first three minutes of his remarks when generally comments on these types of things are much more circumspect

with the rams at 2 generally regarded to be a sure thing for robinson then atlanta trading there for him would be the only way to get him. i just think that anyone trading there would do so for clowney, but of course everyone knows that and its in prices 

I think Bortles is massively underpriced right now. He should be 8 or 10/1.

Only way he goes one is if Houston pick him, and that is looking increasingly unlikely.

So either Clowney is still value at 8/13 or one (or more) of the other players is too big.

Don't think there's anything wrong having a fiver or tenner on at 16/1.

James Willoughby fancies it.

ok np

We have £75 at Ev Clowney now 8/13

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/first-pick

We save £10 at 14-1 (888/Unibet 16-1, no accounts with either) Coral

Greg Robinson14/1NFL Draft - Number One Overall Pick - 09/05/2014
Stake £10.00
Estimated Return:£150.00

effectively therefore we are against any QB going first, and have the two non QBs in the portfolio 

[RickBFA]

How many of these do you think will make the England World Cup squad?

James Milner best price 2/5
Phil Jones 4/9
Ben Foster 1/2
Jordan Henderson 1/2
Kyle Walker 4/7
Fraser Foster 4/7
Ross Barkley 3/5
Chris Smalling 8/13
Frank Lampard 13/20
Micheal Carrick 4/6

[TightEnd]

Going back to the England World Cup squad jaffa was talking about the other day.  Goal keepers.  Ben Foster 1/2 and Fraser Forster 4/7 both ladbrokes.  What cases can people make for these not being value bets. I think both are bets it would be virtually impossible imo for both to get beat and highly likely both win.

Both are overpriced, surely.

Forster is clear second choice, and the only realistic alternative to Foster is Ruddy? Stockdale maybe?

I can't find the right link, if someone could pop it up...but an outfield player or two looked odds against when should be odds on when i looked a week ago. and now i can't remember who

I think Foster is a near cert and backed him at 8/13 a few days back, posted about it after jaffa's post.

Woy knows him from west brom and 1/2 still looks fair to me. The general 2/7 is more like the true price imo.

Personally I am not convinced Forster is a 4/7 shot and if forced to bet think Butland and Stockdale are prob better value at the party prices available.

Would not back Ruddy at 5/4 but he's obv a serious danger too.

Am annoyed I didn't weigh in on the 1/4 on Lallana available up until yesterday.

1/8 is a more fair price, it's just about not getting injured now.

Can't see many outfield players at odds against i'd be backing at the moment, most look rightly priced, maybe Lambert@5-4 is a touch large but nothing huge, could still see Defoe or Lambert getting picked ahead of him.

www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/england/to-make-world-cup-squad

thanks

Lambert 5/4 was the one, thought he was 8/11 ish. Has to go ahead of Carroll as fourth striker i think. others may disagree

been a huge move for Flanagan 12-1 into 3-1 also, in case people hadn't spotted iit

[TightEnd]

How many of these do you think will make the England World Cup squad?

James Milner best price 2/5
Phil Jones 4/9
Ben Foster 1/2
Jordan Henderson 1/2
Kyle Walker 4/7
Fraser Foster 4/7
Ross Barkley 3/5
Chris Smalling 8/13
Frank Lampard 13/20
Micheal Carrick 4/6

7 or 8?

wouldn't want to be backing Walker at 4/7, or Lampard/Carrick at 4/6 or shorter

[RickBFA]

So Tighty, back them all and 7 or 8 makes a nice ROI.

[Nico29]

So Tighty, back them all and 7 or 8 makes a nice ROI.

Just because you think they'll make it doesn't mean you should back them regardless.

You should only back them if you think they are value at that price and make them shorter than what is being offered.

You've got to take into consideration possible injuries and those that have rivals for the same position.

Backing all of-for example- Barkley, Henderson, Carrick and Lampard seems like a conflicting position to take.

Jones and Smalling will likely both go, but I doubt many would be shocked/dissapointed if either didn't.

Agree with Tighty about Carrick and Lampard being too short, would rather lay those prices than back them.

In fact out of those listed above I gen think bar Foster I could not see myself backing any at those prices. Maybe Milner-prob make him nearer 1-4.

[arbboy]

i was of the understanding that Foster was the clear 2nd choice keeper.  Tighty seems to think it's Forster.  I was reading the other day that Foster might even be challenging Hart for the starting spot in some people's opinion.  I am going to smash into Foster tomorrow at 1/2 given his link with Roy at WBA it must literally be backing 1/2 he doesn't get injured between now and the WC.

[Karabiner]

i was of the understanding that Foster was the clear 2nd choice keeper.  Tighty seems to think it's Forster.  I was reading the other day that Foster might even be challenging Hart for the starting spot in some people's opinion.  I am going to smash into Foster tomorrow at 1/2 given his link with Roy at WBA it must literally be backing 1/2 he doesn't get injured between now and the WC.

Didn't RoyH talk Foster out of international retirement and get him back in the fold?

1/2 looks a steal.