Tips for Tikay

[jakally]

It looks to me like shut our eyes and take our punishment

Wholeheartedly agree.
We do seem to have a tendency to want to give money away, in order to limit larger wins and losses.

[arbboy]

Going back to the England World Cup squad jaffa was talking about the other day.  Goal keepers.  Ben Foster 1/2 and Fraser Forster 4/7 both ladbrokes.  What cases can people make for these not being value bets. I think both are bets it would be virtually impossible imo for both to get beat and highly likely both win.

[The Camel]

Worth saving on Greg Robinson as number one pick at 16/1

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/24547731/falcons-could-move-to-no-1-for-greg-robinson-not-jadeveon-clowney

From everything I read Houston are very unlikely to take a QB with the number one pick.

No one will trade up to take a QB because there's so many excellent players at that position available, they will wait their turn and pick the highest on their board available.

I think Clowney will be number 1 pick, but if Atlanta really want Robinson, he's very unlikely to still be available at 6 so they'd have to trade up.

The Rams could well pick him at 2, so they'd have to trade with Houston to get him.

16/1 seems very fair.

[horseplayer]

ty tighty

[Chompy]

Nothing we can do with the Watford punt, just have to suck it up and hope for a result.

That sayed, there's always the option of having £300 on Smoggies at 1.6 for an all-red book. Smoggies top half would be -£170. Watford top half would be -£200. Camel would explode though.

We'd be in a great spot with Kingman now but for tiddlearse Betty balance issues.

Take the rest of the Baldock bet down. I get the impression Britt wants to play tomorrow, but that Fergie doesn't, but that Darragh does. Darragh would love to be able to push the 'League One Golden Boot winner' line when the Britt sale starts in the summer. My guess is he'll be on the bench and maybe come on if Port Vale are getting a good tonking.

[Mark_Porter]

Our boy Schemion has crashed into 22/1 for the One Drop.

I have requested a few more players get added to the list – waiting to see how they are priced.

In the mean time I have a couple more that I think we should do:-

Bobby Baldwin – 80/1
Bill Perkins – 125/1

Both are 100% confirmed playing and on the official confirmed players list.

Bobby Baldwin is no mug whale. He is old school and doesn’t play a lot but I think 80/1 a bet. Finished 7th in the same event in 2012.

Bill Perkins is a whale but he is far from being an idiot. I listened to a really interesting interview with him a while back where he was talking about his love of competing and his desire to move from being the ‘mark’ at the table to being very capable. He has had poker coaching and the idea he is just there to rofl his money off is just not true. He finished 3rd in the smaller version of the One Drop last year as well. 125/1 is insulting.

Couple the above with the fact that the tournament has a relatively quick structure and the calibre of businessman is improving quickly as more of these super high rollers take place. A few quid on each looks good.

Duhamel at 50/1 is interesting - he isn't confirmed yet though and not sure why not. He was one of the first on the list a couple of years ago. He has been playing SHR's all year so not sure why he would fade this. He sold action for the most recent £100K at the EPT Grand Final but no word on the one drop yet. Would prob be 33's at least if he was confirmed.

[The Camel]

Our boy Schemion has crashed into 22/1 for the One Drop.

I have requested a few more players get added to the list – waiting to see how they are priced.

In the mean time I have a couple more that I think we should do:-

Bobby Baldwin – 80/1
Bill Perkins – 125/1

Both are 100% confirmed playing and on the official confirmed players list.

Bobby Baldwin is no mug whale. He is old school and doesn’t play a lot but I think 80/1 a bet. Finished 7th in the same event in 2012.

Bill Perkins is a whale but he is far from being an idiot. I listened to a really interesting interview with him a while back where he was talking about his love of competing and his desire to move from being the ‘mark’ at the table to being very capable. He has had poker coaching and the idea he is just there to rofl his money off is just not true. He finished 3rd in the smaller version of the One Drop last year as well. 125/1 is insulting.

Couple the above with the fact that the tournament has a relatively quick structure and the calibre of businessman is improving quickly as more of these super high rollers take place. A few quid on each looks good.

Duhamel at 50/1 is interesting - he isn't confirmed yet though and not sure why not. He was one of the first on the list a couple of years ago. He has been playing SHR's all year so not sure why he would fade this. He sold action for the most recent £100K at the EPT Grand Final but no word on the one drop yet. Would prob be 33's at least if he was confirmed.

Link to official list of players?

[Mark_Porter]

This was the press release that went around in March:-

http://www.bluff.com/news/wsop-announces-23-confirmed-entries-in-1m-big-one-for-one-drop-52455/

''Along with Esfandiari, runner-up Sam Trickett, David Einhorn, Laliberté, Brian Rast and Bobby Baldwin are all back in the mix''

Other players who have confirmed their participation include Phil Ivey, Phil Galfond, Erik Seidel, Philipp Gruissem, Jason Mercier, Vivek Rajkumar, Noah Schwartz, Andrew Robl, Brandon Steven, Bill Perkins and Paul Newey. Three other confirmed players have elected to remain anonymous.

[Mark_Porter]

The full list should go on the One Drop website nearer the date. 2012's for reference:-

http://allinforonedrop.com/en/players/complete-list/

[The Camel]

I'll try to find out if the Lizard is going to play.

Not sure if Ladbrokes would be too generous with his price if he is though.

[bobby1]

Middlesbrough 1.6 on the exchange to finish in Top 12.

I cant see a 10 goal swing between Mboro and Bolton who are the only other team who could finish 12th (mboro lose, bolton win + 10 goal swing in difference - boro +9 bolton -1)

Surely we could cover off some of the £350 on Watford?

Someone better than me would have to work out how much though.

This is probably bobby1's call but

We have £350 to win £100

We can have £100 to win £60 on Middlesborough at 1.6

and change -£350/+£100 to -£290/zero which isn't much of a hedge


We could back Middlesborough to win at Yeovil at 11/8 (ripple11 yesterday) but that leaves outcomes unhedged (draws etc) so you could lose-lose

not easy.

It looks to me like shut our eyes and try to cheer on a winner.

FYP :-)


Got raging tonsillitis here so only did it quickly but had a run thru the prices to finish top 12 and don't think 1.61 is the right price if you wanted to hedge anyway. You could stick it in at 1.8 tho I think that's too big and see if you get matched but trying to save a few quid on the loss if it goes wrong now is prob too late, if we were so worried about losing the 350 we have had 45 games to adjust the bet and it wasn't suggested we green out even when Watford were 1/14 a couple of weeks ago so don't think redding out to lose a little less is the right thing now.

[pleno1]

should the newcastle protest effect the price?

[The Camel]

Trying to work out the chances of Brighton making the playoffs.

This is the current position:

Reading  70pts GD 14
Brighton 69pts GD 14

Blackburn have a tiny squeak but less than 1% chance.

So to make the playoffs Brighton need

1. Reading to lose or draw and Brighton to win or
2. Reading to lose and Brighton to draw

Prices on tomorrows games:

Reading 2.12 Draw 3.65 Burnley 3.75
Forest 3.75 Draw 3.7 Brighton 2.12

So is it as simple as just multiplying the percentages? (not exact percentages - don't yell at me)

1. Reading to D or L = 55% x Brighton to W = 45% equals 25%
2. Reading to L = 27% x Brighton to D or W = 73% equals 19%

Add the two %s together and Brighton have 44% chance of making the playoffs.

Or have I totally cocked up somewhere?

If not Brighton to make the playoffs (top 6) at 9/4 with various is a must (and max) bet.

[TightEnd]

Going back to the England World Cup squad jaffa was talking about the other day.  Goal keepers.  Ben Foster 1/2 and Fraser Forster 4/7 both ladbrokes.  What cases can people make for these not being value bets. I think both are bets it would be virtually impossible imo for both to get beat and highly likely both win.

Both are overpriced, surely.

Forster is clear second choice, and the only realistic alternative to Foster is Ruddy? Stockdale maybe?

I can't find the right link, if someone could pop it up...but an outfield player or two looked odds against when should be odds on when i looked a week ago. and now i can't remember who

[Dubai]

I did text u Keith to stop you backing it- what you've done is added the chances of reading losing twice in both equations. So it's Reading losing x Brighton not losing + Reading drawing x Brighton winning.

So LvDW+DvW
You have LvDW+LDvW

So 19.5%+ 12.99%= 32.5%

So between 2/1 and 9/4