Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Another One Drop bet.

Greg Merson - 100/1

https://twitter.com/GregMerson

He started selling action last week, claims 26% sold in first two days so will be very likely to play. £5 please. Expect it to be 33's once he confirms.

Selbst and Altergott now 33/1. I should have suggested the same bet on Altergott really, 50/1 was clearly not right regardless of the fact he was 100/1 a few days previously. 

125/1 Bill Perkins is still an insult btw. Richard Yong is 66/1. All the confirmed businessmen should be somewhere between 66-1 to 80-1 imo. Guy is now 66/1 with laddies and I happily bet him at 80’s. Can’t wait for this event now as, for the first time ever on any sporting event, have a great looking ante post book! Should have at least a couple to sweat on the final table.

100/1
Greg Merson
2014 World Series of Poker - The Big One for One Drop
Singles - Tournament Winner
1 line @ £5.00 per line
Total Stake £5.00
Potential Return £505.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000604


I am updating WSOP news daily from now until the end of the WSOP on the catch all thread on the rail

 have put up the latest press releases released about the one drop today

[TightEnd]

Darcy Ward to win the World Speedway Grand Prix Championship.

Darcy is the current wonderkid of the sport - in his first Grand Prix season last year he missed a third of the races due to injury, and rode 3 Grand prix's injured, but still managed to finish 8th only (circa 15 points for a win) 45 points from the winner.

Darcy has improved his support team and cut down the number of weekly rides around Europe to focus on the Grand Prix series - still a risk taking any one in a long term speedway market as they race insane amount, and get hurt often, but he has the best machines underneath him and a huge amount of talent.  If he can keep it upright he should be there or there abouts.  Last years champ Woffinden profitted from Darcy and Chris Holder being injured, and Holder champ from 2012 missed most of last season with injury and is still in recovery mode from several bone breaks - neither are as talented as Ward.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/speedway/world-championship/speedway-world-championship/winner

Darcy is 6/1 with VC compared with 5/2 - 3/1 at most other highstreet firms - and 5/1 on the Exchange with very little liquidity.

£10 with VC @ 6/1?

Wow, at those prices, has to be a bet, thank you.

We are on, exactly as directed.

How is your pride and joy these days? 6 months old? 9 months, maybe?

BET PLACED

is for the 12 race season ending oct 11?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Speedway_Grand_Prix

or a particular race?

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/netherlands/robben-to-be-booked-for-diving

https://www.google.co.uk/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=IUlyU_eaM4HR8gf46oGYDA#q=robben+booked+for+diving

Just 9/1 with 888 and Unibet

There is chatter that the "big thing" this world cup will be cracking down on simulation (FIFA known for using world cup to showcase/crack down a particular blight on the game)

[Nico29]

Another One Drop bet.

Greg Merson - 100/1

https://twitter.com/GregMerson

He started selling action last week, claims 26% sold in first two days so will be very likely to play. £5 please. Expect it to be 33's once he confirms.

Selbst and Altergott now 33/1. I should have suggested the same bet on Altergott really, 50/1 was clearly not right regardless of the fact he was 100/1 a few days previously. 

125/1 Bill Perkins is still an insult btw. Richard Yong is 66/1. All the confirmed businessmen should be somewhere between 66-1 to 80-1 imo. Guy is now 66/1 with laddies and I happily bet him at 80’s. Can’t wait for this event now as, for the first time ever on any sporting event, have a great looking ante post book! Should have at least a couple to sweat on the final table.

100/1
Greg Merson
2014 World Series of Poker - The Big One for One Drop
Singles - Tournament Winner
1 line @ £5.00 per line
Total Stake £5.00
Potential Return £505.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000604


I am updating WSOP news daily from now until the end of the WSOP on the catch all thread on the rail

 have put up the latest press releases released about the one drop today

Just an opinion but I would have more on.

100/1 on a fantastic player in a 56 or so player field is a steal.

I often find the bigger the price the smaller the bet is placed on fred.

Trigg's 40/1 shot the other week for example.

Surely it could be done in terms of points/confidence in the bet-not the price.

You don't have to have ten times more on a 3-1 shot that isn't a better +ev bet than this-but that's norm what I see happen.

Often I think it should be the other way round.

Def when the discrepancy is this big.

[Nico29]

Wasn't a dig at anyone, just trying to understand why the logic is often lets bet less on something that is hugely priced.

I see that £5 was recced for the bet, i'd have 5 times that on min.

Especially if we are creating a portfolio, i believe fred was also on Selbst yesterday at 66s?

[TightEnd]

Wasn't a dig at anyone, just trying to understand why the logic is often lets bet less on something that is hugely priced.

I see that £5 was recced for the bet, i'd have 5 times that on min.

Especially if we are creating a portfolio, i believe fred was also on Selbst yesterday at 66s?

I was just following what was recommended

could easily have more on, but in part its due to what the poster is comfortable having his name attached to

eg hector. only comfortable with tenners and twenties when on his record we should be 100-150 a time, but its nto what he wants to feel comfortable

[Nico29]

Wasn't a dig at anyone, just trying to understand why the logic is often lets bet less on something that is hugely priced.

I see that £5 was recced for the bet, i'd have 5 times that on min.

Especially if we are creating a portfolio, i believe fred was also on Selbst yesterday at 66s?

I was just following what was recommended

could easily have more on, but in part its due to what the poster is comfortable having his name attached to

eg hector. only comfortable with tenners and twenties when on his record we should be 100-150 a time, but its nto what he wants to feel comfortable

No I totally get that tighty that you were just following the rec.

Apart from the fact that sadbrokes should be punished for one of the most ridic books ever here, it's just an interesting debate I feel.

Obv ppl should only rec what they feel comfortable doing so.

I just wonder why in general we as punters seem to steer away from punting large on large priced selections that are +ev bets.

It's almost as if because they are such prices they are by association banzai's when in fact they are far from it.

One reason I enjoy following Lord Channing's tips so much is how he will often rec more on the 50-1 shot than the 6-1 cover bet.

Just think as punters we are often too timid when backing such things, and we should try not to be.

Anyway rant over, please try and back mr merson for another tenner at least on my rec if needed.

[TightEnd]

i tried for another tenner

the maximum allowed was £0.00


here is the current list of those priced at 80-1 or above in a 56 runner field

     David Steicke 66/1
    Bobby Baldwin 80/1
    Paul Phua 80/1
    Cary Katz 80/1
    Tom Marchese 80/1
    Haralabos Voulgaris 80/1
    Bill Perkins 80/1
    Todd Brunson 100/1
    Mikhail Smirnov 100/1
    Jens Kyllonen 100/1
    Phil Ruffin 100/1
    Dominik Panka 100/1
    Greg Merson 100/1
    Fredric Banjout 100/1
    John Morgan 100/1
    Rick Salomon 100/1
    Dan Shak 100/1
    Albert Daher 100/1
    Faraz Jaka 100/1
    Kent Lundmark 100/1
    Mike Sexton 100/1
    Doyle Brunson 100/1
    Jay Farber 100/1
    Jake Schindler 100/1
    Chamath Palihapitiya 100/1
    Alex Kravchenko 100/1
    Paul Newey 100/1
    Bob Bright 125/1
    Ilya Bulychev 125/1

the current book is

Schemion £6.25, restricted, at 80-1
Selbst £5 at 66-1
Merson £5, restricted, at 100-1

the latest press releases, and newly confirmed runners are on http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=63242.15

[arbboy]

What price would people make Newy for this?  Assuming it's capped at 56 runners and he is 100% to play.  Is he the worse player in the field?  If so what price would people make him?

[Junior Senior]

I got on Selbst yesterday but her option is now suspended. Merson is still 100/1 and they let this ice cream have a tenner on.

Ps. Ladyblokes still haven't paid out on the England World Cup squad market. Nobs!

[Nico29]

I got on Selbst yesterday but her option is now suspended. Merson is still 100/1 and they let this ice cream have a tenner on.

Ps. Ladyblokes still haven't paid out on the England World Cup squad market. Nobs!

Tell me bout it mate, fuming!

[Nakor]

Darcy Ward to win the World Speedway Grand Prix Championship.

Darcy is the current wonderkid of the sport - in his first Grand Prix season last year he missed a third of the races due to injury, and rode 3 Grand prix's injured, but still managed to finish 8th only (circa 15 points for a win) 45 points from the winner.

Darcy has improved his support team and cut down the number of weekly rides around Europe to focus on the Grand Prix series - still a risk taking any one in a long term speedway market as they race insane amount, and get hurt often, but he has the best machines underneath him and a huge amount of talent.  If he can keep it upright he should be there or there abouts.  Last years champ Woffinden profitted from Darcy and Chris Holder being injured, and Holder champ from 2012 missed most of last season with injury and is still in recovery mode from several bone breaks - neither are as talented as Ward.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/speedway/world-championship/speedway-world-championship/winner

Darcy is 6/1 with VC compared with 5/2 - 3/1 at most other highstreet firms - and 5/1 on the Exchange with very little liquidity.

£10 with VC @ 6/1?

Wow, at those prices, has to be a bet, thank you.

We are on, exactly as directed.

How is your pride and joy these days? 6 months old? 9 months, maybe?

BET PLACED

is for the 12 race season ending oct 11?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Speedway_Grand_Prix

or a particular race?

12 race season.

[Mark_Porter]

What price would people make Newy for this?  Assuming it's capped at 56 runners and he is 100% to play.  Is he the worse player in the field?  If so what price would people make him?

http://www.pokernews.com/news/2014/01/paul-newey-on-diving-straight-into-poker-17201.htm

Played a lot of big buy in tournaments in the last 2 years, would suspect he is far from being the worst player in the field.

66/1? Same price as Guy Laliberte and Richard Yong.

I think in general the guys at the very top are too short and the guys at the back are too big. It's poker, not that much of a difference. Guy wins it if Queens hold against Antonio in 2012.

I don't mind how much Fred bets, suggested a fiver as wanted to suggest 7 or 8 for a fiver each and can't bet each way. Whatever works for you.

[Dubai]

I liked Newey at 125/1

Played him for hours the other day. He is too tight, id even suggest he can't possibly win as a Brit who will be playing the comp told me.

Will lay £500@66/1 if anyone wants it.

[arbboy]

what price would you back him at dave?