Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

http://espn.go.com/blog/poker/post/_/id/1739/day-1b-recap-bigger-field-brings-life-to-rio?poker

Anticipation is at its peak for Day 1C. With over 3,000 players already registered for the final starting day, it's likely that Day 1C will be the largest single starting day in main event history. Play is expected to take place all across the Rio, and will not be limited to the convention center. It seems likely that the total field size will hover near the 7,000-player mark, a number that will reiterate the re-emergence of poker after a number of years filled with challenging times.

This time tomorrow, Rodders.....

[samurai]

Following on the politics theme I think UKIP not to win a seat at the general election is a decent price at 11/8 with Laddies.

Reasoning behind this being. Firstly,the UKIP vote has always dropped at a general election compared to mid term elections. No reason to assume this will change dramatically enough to win them an seat.

Secondly opinion polls are already showing a small downward direction in UKIP support. As the election approaches people's opinions become more polarised and protest votes are less likely. Voters will decide to kick out Dave or stop Ed. Not going to do that by voting purple.

Thirdly. Tactical voting. It was apparent in the recent by election at Newark that the party best place:pmd to beat UKIP (in this case the Conservatives) received votes from Lib and possibly Lab voters to stop Ukip.

Finally and probably most importantly there are very few seats that Ukip actually can win with the 2
:5-30 percent that is the most they are going to get in any seat. There would have to be major vote splitting between the other parties to let them sneak through the middle.

One final point is that obviously whichever seat Farage stands in ( think Thanet South is likely) will be their best chance. It is very likely that the seat will have many opinion polls prior to the election due to media interest. This will help clarify to anti Ukip voters how best to get him beat!

I would have thought this was an odds on shot rather than the 11/8 with Laddies. Would be interested in opinions from any politics followers?

[DungBeetle]

Regarding UKIP, you are correct that voters will leave them in the run up to the election, but worth bearing in mind that they have never achieved this level of support before so they have far more voters to work with this time. 

One thing I strongly disagree with though is that a Tory voter would vote Labour to stop UKIP winning a seat and vice versa.  Tory/Labour tribalists will vote tactically to keep each other out, but they won't do the same to stop a UKIP win, especially if it means voting for each other.

I also think that the anger with the main parties is far higher than it has been before which plays to UKIP hands.

The FPTP system definitely means that it is possible that UKIP get zero MPs but I don't think 11/8 is value on this outcome to be honest.  I haven't seen the odds, but I think UKIP will get 2/3 seats and I'd want a better price than 11/8 to bet on zero MPs. 

Interested in Tighty's viewpoint as he follows this sort of thing.

[TightEnd]

Entirely possible that UKIP won't win any seats, very difficult to price it really as it has "torn up the map"..psephologically its new analysis for a general election

they will certainly affect the destination of a lot of seats, particularly tory marginals

in the euro elections...the darker purple the stronger the ukip support

where there is a black lining to mthe purple shading, its in a marginal westminster constituency



the ukip draw their support from a very clear demographic: the “left-behind” electorate of older, working-class white voters with few educational qualifications. these are of course from either tory or labour backgrounds

Ukip surged in areas along the east coast with large concentrations of such voters – places like North East Lincolnshire, Hull and Basildon – and flopped among the younger, more ethnically diverse electorates of London, Manchester and other big cities, as well as in university-dominated areas such as Oxford and Cambridge.

when you look at somewhere like thanet south one of three things can happen

a) they split the tory vote and deliver it to labour
b) they split the labour (working class) vote and let the tories hang on
c) they win

no idea which it will be!

if pressed i would say they might win a marginal seat, but thats not to say 11/8 no isn't a good price

we just haven't been here before in an era where 3 party politics is fragmenting like this

[mondatoo]

Congrats on the scores Maths Dullard.

[DungBeetle]

One side point, if UKIP do poll 10%/12% of the votes and get zero MPs (which is possible) surely it will be time to review the political system we have at the moment.  We may have a party getting 12% and getting no MPs and another party losing the popular vote yet having the most MPs! 

[samurai]

Thanks for the feedback chaps. Part of my reasoning is that as far as I can see there are really only 4 or 5 seats (all Tory held) that they can realistically win.
I cant see Ukip attracting any new voters now, only losing support. Its not going to take a lot of Tories returning to the fold to make winning a seat very difficult. Additionally the Tories will, if history repeats itself, gain voters back from Labour as an election approaches further reducing  ukips chance.

The only seat where UKIP are favourites is Thanet South and I believe that in a poll taken in May they were only 3rd 5 percentage points behind both their rivals.

Whilst I agree about tribal voters not changing their voting habits, it was apparent in Newark that there was anyone but UKIP vote which helped the Tories over the line easily in the end.

Anyway thanks again.

[sonour]

Politics

it is under a year to the general election. Opportunities for the thread will abound

I talked before the Euro elections about the prospects for the Lib Dems (they polled under 7% and came 5th with 2 seats), then at the Newark by-election about the possibility of losing their deposit. Both bets won

For the general, the LD's have 57 MPs and received 23% of the vote

All polls currently have them in the 7-10% range for next year

their problem is widely known. In a coalition which their core support objected to, with a partner the LD grass roots does not like they can no longer be seen as a protest vote against the Conservatives. you might as well vote labour if you are left leaning...

whilst the economy is improving, and labour is struggling to pull that far ahead in the polls (no overall majority is i think most likely) the LDs are receiving no poll benefit from either

I struggle to see how their vote shores up in 2015

Of those 57 MPs, around 24 are safe seats.

another 3-5 are likely to be held, but far from sure things

that leaves around 27-30 seats that might swing, if the factors above are correct. An issue here is that so many LD seats are marginals, and it takes a comparatively small swing to lose to labour in the north, the snp further north, or the tories in the south and south west. Much less likely to soak up "neither of the main party" votes now as they are part of the establishment...Whether UKIP does for the tory vote in the South West and by extension keeps some LD's in is a risk, clearly

When it comes to the debates, which Clegg won last time..voters had had little exposure to him, presented something different etc the exact reverse will happen this time. He cannot make the same appeal

The blogger and radio presenter Iain Dale analysed seat by seat yesterday

http://iaindale.com/posts/2014/07/06/updated-seat-by-seat-forecast-why-the-libdems-will-win-fewer-than-30-seats-at-the-next-election

Electoral Calculus, to just put one pollster up, has a 2015 prediction as follows

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

looking at all this yesterday, and comparing it to betting markets

Ladbrokes offer 10/11 under 33.5 seats http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-liberal-democrats

Ladbrokes also offer 100/30 21-30 seats http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-liberal-democrats-banded

in that latter market over 30 seats is a 7/4 favourite. I think 21-30 should be favourite



Recommend £110 Under 33.5 seats at 10/11. The central price should be +/- 28-30 seats

Recommend £30 21-30 Seats at 100-30

both Ladbrokes

Lovely stuff Rich, thanks.

BOTH bets placed, BUT, we were Restricted to £50 on the "Under 33.5 seats".

2 BETS PLACED

Tikay,

Would you like the other £60 on Under 33.5 seats at 10/11 with Ladbrokes ?

[tikay]

Politics

it is under a year to the general election. Opportunities for the thread will abound

I talked before the Euro elections about the prospects for the Lib Dems (they polled under 7% and came 5th with 2 seats), then at the Newark by-election about the possibility of losing their deposit. Both bets won

For the general, the LD's have 57 MPs and received 23% of the vote

All polls currently have them in the 7-10% range for next year

their problem is widely known. In a coalition which their core support objected to, with a partner the LD grass roots does not like they can no longer be seen as a protest vote against the Conservatives. you might as well vote labour if you are left leaning...

whilst the economy is improving, and labour is struggling to pull that far ahead in the polls (no overall majority is i think most likely) the LDs are receiving no poll benefit from either

I struggle to see how their vote shores up in 2015

Of those 57 MPs, around 24 are safe seats.

another 3-5 are likely to be held, but far from sure things

that leaves around 27-30 seats that might swing, if the factors above are correct. An issue here is that so many LD seats are marginals, and it takes a comparatively small swing to lose to labour in the north, the snp further north, or the tories in the south and south west. Much less likely to soak up "neither of the main party" votes now as they are part of the establishment...Whether UKIP does for the tory vote in the South West and by extension keeps some LD's in is a risk, clearly

When it comes to the debates, which Clegg won last time..voters had had little exposure to him, presented something different etc the exact reverse will happen this time. He cannot make the same appeal

The blogger and radio presenter Iain Dale analysed seat by seat yesterday

http://iaindale.com/posts/2014/07/06/updated-seat-by-seat-forecast-why-the-libdems-will-win-fewer-than-30-seats-at-the-next-election

Electoral Calculus, to just put one pollster up, has a 2015 prediction as follows

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

looking at all this yesterday, and comparing it to betting markets

Ladbrokes offer 10/11 under 33.5 seats http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-liberal-democrats

Ladbrokes also offer 100/30 21-30 seats http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-liberal-democrats-banded

in that latter market over 30 seats is a 7/4 favourite. I think 21-30 should be favourite



Recommend £110 Under 33.5 seats at 10/11. The central price should be +/- 28-30 seats

Recommend £30 21-30 Seats at 100-30

both Ladbrokes

Lovely stuff Rich, thanks.

BOTH bets placed, BUT, we were Restricted to £50 on the "Under 33.5 seats".

2 BETS PLACED

Tikay,

Would you like the other £60 on Under 33.5 seats at 10/11 with Ladbrokes ?

Yes please Lisa.

I'll settle up @ month end, as usual, if thats ok with you?

Is the slate currently clean?

[sonour]

Confirmed

Next General Election

Lib Dems Under 33.5 seats £60 @ 10/11

Yes and yes

[tikay]

Confirmed

Next General Election

Lib Dems Under 33.5 seats £60 @ 10/11

Yes and yes

Thank you, & BOOKED.


BET PLACED

[TightEnd]

Longer term position - think West Brom might be value for relegation at 3/1.  Their transfer activity has showed a distinct lack of ambition so far.  Yes they signed Lescott but also this week went for championship veteren Chris Baird.  The other signing was Craig Gardner also on a free.  Barahino apart, the squad has a distinctly "old" feeling, and it's possible many of their tried and tested performers are now past their peak.  They also have made an uninspiring managerial appointment in Alan Irvine.  His latest venture was being sacked at Sheffield Weds.

Just feels from the manager and the signings that the chairman wants to do things on a budget this season.  I think we should get on now though it people agree - I think Leicester, Hull and QPR will have bolstered their squads to a greater degree than WBA by next month so the baggies will go off shorter.

Recommend £50 at 3/1 on WBA to go down.  (generally available)

Thanks.

As you note, lets get some talk going about this, & hopefully make a decision later today. They must surely be jollies to take the drop, though I have no idea what price reps value.

As it happens, I was thinking about Premier League betting recently.

I'm absolutely convinced that players who featured in the World Cup, especially those that went deep, will come back with adrenelin hangovers, plus the physical effect in many cases of playing in that energy-sapping heat.

As such, I think we can expect below par performances from many of them.

Are there any edges or Markets we can look at in these cases?

One example that sprngs to mind is RvP, but I'm sure there are plenty of others.

this is a brilliant article illustrating how peripheral the premier league is to the world cup

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/jul/07/brazil-2014-premier-league-world-cup

the major teams of course have some exposure. Comparatively few premier league players have played through to this stage though

Man C, with Fernandinho, DeMichelis, Aguero and Zabaleta in the semis and Kompany in the quarters have the most exposure but presumably their strength of squad allows for these players to have their summer holiday during our pre-season, and presumably miss no more than a few games at the beginning of the season?

Chelsea have Schurrle, Willian, Oscar and Ramires in the semis, and had Hazard in the quarters, but Ramires and Wllian have barely featured and Oscar and Hazard have underperformed relative to domestic form. do chelsea have a strong enough midfield squad to cope with these guys being knackered in august and september?

Man U RVP and then who?

Arsenal mertesacker and ozil, maybe might be rested early season

beyond that its the odd player who has got to the quarter finals or beyond in each premier league squad. after all the english and spanish players have been home for 10-14 days already

i couldn't see a team in the premier league that will be really affected by the world cup, unless of course early season form is affected by the absence of a summer break.

the closest i got was Villa, where Ron Vlaar has played 6 games (or will have on wednesday), where Lambert can't strengthen his squad and where they were a far less effective team in terms of results when he was missing last season

i doubt blistering early season form is expected anyway though

[Mark_Porter]

Long shot but anyone in the Rio got a view on numbers for today in the main? Day 1C just got started.

Sweating this through fingers

[BorntoBubble]

Long shot but anyone in the Rio got a view on numbers for today in the main? Day 1C just got started.

Sweating this through fingers

Day 1a didn't have the number on the board when I went and looked not sure about today though.

Although seen people with seat tickets in the main casino which is a good sign

[Mark_Porter]

Long shot but anyone in the Rio got a view on numbers for today in the main? Day 1C just got started.

Sweating this through fingers

Day 1a didn't have the number on the board when I went and looked not sure about today though.

Although seen people with seat tickets in the main casino which is a good sign

Thank you.

Now showing 3000 in at the start on updates. Not sure how accurate that is though, surprised if they got exactly 3000 in. Also that number has been wrong regularly on previous days.