Tips for Tikay

[Mark_Porter]

Good news – Day 1B of the WSOP Main Event drew 2,144 entries. This was up from 1,942 runners in 1B last year and somewhat makes up for the poor 1A numbers.

We are now at 2915. That means the magic winning number to scoop the lot for day 1C is 3436.

Tweet from WSOP

Flight B of #MainEvent drew 2,144 entries. Monday’s Flight C is final day to enter.  C already has more entries in it than A&B combined.

Day 1C already close to 3K runners. Should be a good sweat tonight, will be gutted if this bet doesn't win.

[tikay]

Good news – Day 1B of the WSOP Main Event drew 2,144 entries. This was up from 1,942 runners in 1B last year and somewhat makes up for the poor 1A numbers.

We are now at 2915. That means the magic winning number to scoop the lot for day 1C is 3436.

Tweet from WSOP

Flight B of #MainEvent drew 2,144 entries. Monday’s Flight C is final day to enter.  C already has more entries in it than A&B combined.

Day 1C already close to 3K runners. Should be a good sweat tonight, will be gutted if this bet doesn't win.

GREAT news!

If C really does already have over 2,915, we are nearly over the line.

Must confess, 1a was lower than I had hoped, but as I noted yesterday, the July 4th thing does bugger everything up.

Fingers crossed, & yes, if this one loses, it'll be a real blow.

[BorntoBubble]

If anyone has big money on this and they need me to enter, I'm happy for you to put me in

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £151.30

Outstanding Bets £2249.20

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=27

A profit of £30 yesterday

Roger Federer lost the Wimbledon final in five sets, having at one point gone favourite to win it after recovering from 2-5 to win the 4th 7-5. A profit of £60 from £30 e/w at 6-1



losers

- Neesham top NZ batmsan in the T20 series. out for 7 yesterday and didn't fire in either game  -£20. Still we got the chance to see this from Trent Boult 



- Hansen -£5 in the TdeF stage 2 won by Nibali, with our e/w pick Valverde in the pack of likely winners who fought it out up that steep hill in Seffield at the end of the stage

Click to see full-size image.

- Rosberg -£5 as variance evened out and he suffered his first retirement of the 2014 season, making the F12014WDC very close again after Silverstone with Hamilton just 4 points behind Rosberg heading to Hockenheim. excellent performance from future world champion Bottas in 2nd

Click to see full-size image.

on a packed day of sport, a three screen at once jobbie, action in longer term positions

- Lancashire beat Worcestershire by three runs to knock Worcs off the top of the T20 Blast north group table, including a strong performance from a returning player..

Click to see full-size image.

1    Lancashire    11    7    2    0    2    0.682 16.0
2    Worcestershire    11    6    3    0    2    0.334 14.0
3    Nottinghamshire    10    5    3    0    2    0.554 12.0
4    Yorkshire    10    4    3    0    3    0.201    11.0
5    Durham    10    4    4    0    2    0.627    10.0

14 group games for qualification, so its an important loss but still all to play for

In the south group Hampshire lost, which cements Essex's prospects for us

1    Essex    9    8    1    0    0    0.388    16.0
2    Hampshire    11    7    4    0    0    0.278    14.0
3    Surrey    9    6    3    0    0    0.743    12.0
4    Glamorgan    10    4    3    1    2    -0.041    11.0
5    Somerset    10    4    5    0    1    -0.036    9.0

- The WSOP Main event saw 2144 runners to make 2915 total, with @wsoptd reporting that 1c has pre-reg's exceeding 2915. Needing 6250+ so 3436+ on 1c we look like needing 500+ walk ups on 1c and must have a sporting chance on the overs bets

- In baseball the Orioles beat the Red Sox 7-6 in the 3rd extra inning. The Yankees won 9-7 and in the Central both the Royals and Tgers lost

In the AL East the Blue Jays lost 4-2 so the current standings make good reading but its going to be a close one all season

            W   L   PCT   GB   
Baltimore   48   40   .545   -   
Toronto   47   43   .522   2.0
NY Yankees44   43   .506   3.5   

Click to see full-size image.

baseball   AL East Winner   baltimore orioles   9/1   25
baseball   AL East Winner   baltimore orioles   12/1   25

Finally, if you ever wonder why Sir Chris Hoy retired and isn't competing at the Commonwealth games, perhaps he had advance sight of these, for the opening parade

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

After the excitement of Wimbledon we come down to the more humdrum tournaments. However that does give us the opportunity to support a Fred favourite again. In the Mercedes tournament in Germany we have Foggy Dewhurst defending his title. I though he looked good at Wimbledon, until he imploded. Back on his beloved clay court he can beat a very week field. 

2 things that make me fancy his chances are that he won this last year, and he won his first tournament this season which means he can quickly find form on a clay surface after a break.

Suggest £20 Foggy to win the Mercedes jobbie @  100/30 with Coral or Betvictor

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

After the excitement of Wimbledon we come down to the more humdrum tournaments. However that does give us the opportunity to support a Fred favourite again. In the Mercedes tournament in Germany we have Foggy Dewhurst defending his title. I though he looked good at Wimbledon, until he imploded. Back on his beloved clay court he can beat a very week field. 

2 things that make me fancy his chances are that he won this last year, and he won his first tournament this season which means he can quickly find form on a clay surface after a break.

Suggest £20 Foggy to win the Mercedes jobbie @  100/30 with Coral or Betvictor

Morning hector, & thanks.

We had a great sweat on Federer, so close, but great fun.

Not sure if Tighty is around, so I've placed the Foggy bet, £20 @ 0/30, BMU. Foggy is 2/1 in a lot of places, so we can't be in terrible shape.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

A quick shout out for a Fred regular who had rather a good night last night Next Door, where they do a "sliding scale" Jackpot for players who make both Final Tables of the Nightly Main & Mini Events.  

Here are the top six of both Events.....

MAIN


al873killl 1810000 1 £4887
Maths Dullard 0 2 £2950.30
fara 0 3 £1782.85
bearlyther 0 4 £1402.75
deeatt 0 5 £1194.60
kwd 0 6 £995.50


MINI


MSDOS 1275000 1 £675.75
Maths Dullard 0 2 £402.90
HUGHMANS 0 3 £242.25
chicknMelt 0 4 £191.25
chabba 0 5 £161.93
daveyt86 0 6 £135.15

Jackpot Bonus, £1,500.

[DungBeetle]

Longer term position - think West Brom might be value for relegation at 3/1.  Their transfer activity has showed a distinct lack of ambition so far.  Yes they signed Lescott but also this week went for championship veteren Chris Baird.  The other signing was Craig Gardner also on a free.  Barahino apart, the squad has a distinctly "old" feeling, and it's possible many of their tried and tested performers are now past their peak.  They also have made an uninspiring managerial appointment in Alan Irvine.  His latest venture was being sacked at Sheffield Weds.

Just feels from the manager and the signings that the chairman wants to do things on a budget this season.  I think we should get on now though it people agree - I think Leicester, Hull and QPR will have bolstered their squads to a greater degree than WBA by next month so the baggies will go off shorter.

Recommend £50 at 3/1 on WBA to go down.  (generally available)

[tikay]

Longer term position - think West Brom might be value for relegation at 3/1.  Their transfer activity has showed a distinct lack of ambition so far.  Yes they signed Lescott but also this week went for championship veteren Chris Baird.  The other signing was Craig Gardner also on a free.  Barahino apart, the squad has a distinctly "old" feeling, and it's possible many of their tried and tested performers are now past their peak.  They also have made an uninspiring managerial appointment in Alan Irvine.  His latest venture was being sacked at Sheffield Weds.

Just feels from the manager and the signings that the chairman wants to do things on a budget this season.  I think we should get on now though it people agree - I think Leicester, Hull and QPR will have bolstered their squads to a greater degree than WBA by next month so the baggies will go off shorter.

Recommend £50 at 3/1 on WBA to go down.  (generally available)

Thanks.

As you note, lets get some talk going about this, & hopefully make a decision later today. They must surely be jollies to take the drop, though I have no idea what price reps value.

As it happens, I was thinking about Premier League betting recently.

I'm absolutely convinced that players who featured in the World Cup, especially those that went deep, will come back with adrenelin hangovers, plus the physical effect in many cases of playing in that energy-sapping heat.

As such, I think we can expect below par performances from many of them.

Are there any edges or Markets we can look at in these cases?

One example that sprngs to mind is RvP, but I'm sure there are plenty of others.

[TightEnd]

Politics

it is under a year to the general election. Opportunities for the thread will abound

I talked before the Euro elections about the prospects for the Lib Dems (they polled under 7% and came 5th with 2 seats), then at the Newark by-election about the possibility of losing their deposit. Both bets won

For the general, the LD's have 57 MPs and received 23% of the vote

All polls currently have them in the 7-10% range for next year

their problem is widely known. In a coalition which their core support objected to, with a partner the LD grass roots does not like they can no longer be seen as a protest vote against the Conservatives. you might as well vote labour if you are left leaning...

whilst the economy is improving, and labour is struggling to pull that far ahead in the polls (no overall majority is i think most likely) the LDs are receiving no poll benefit from either

I struggle to see how their vote shores up in 2015

Of those 57 MPs, around 24 are safe seats.

another 3-5 are likely to be held, but far from sure things

that leaves around 27-30 seats that might swing, if the factors above are correct. An issue here is that so many LD seats are marginals, and it takes a comparatively small swing to lose to labour in the north, the snp further north, or the tories in the south and south west. Much less likely to soak up "neither of the main party" votes now as they are part of the establishment...Whether UKIP does for the tory vote in the South West and by extension keeps some LD's in is a risk, clearly

When it comes to the debates, which Clegg won last time..voters had had little exposure to him, presented something different etc the exact reverse will happen this time. He cannot make the same appeal

The blogger and radio presenter Iain Dale analysed seat by seat yesterday

http://iaindale.com/posts/2014/07/06/updated-seat-by-seat-forecast-why-the-libdems-will-win-fewer-than-30-seats-at-the-next-election

Electoral Calculus, to just put one pollster up, has a 2015 prediction as follows

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

looking at all this yesterday, and comparing it to betting markets

Ladbrokes offer 10/11 under 33.5 seats http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-liberal-democrats

Ladbrokes also offer 100/30 21-30 seats http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-liberal-democrats-banded

in that latter market over 30 seats is a 7/4 favourite. I think 21-30 should be favourite



Recommend £110 Under 33.5 seats at 10/11. The central price should be +/- 28-30 seats

Recommend £30 21-30 Seats at 100-30

both Ladbrokes

[RickBFA]

Longer term position - think West Brom might be value for relegation at 3/1.  Their transfer activity has showed a distinct lack of ambition so far.  Yes they signed Lescott but also this week went for championship veteren Chris Baird.  The other signing was Craig Gardner also on a free.  Barahino apart, the squad has a distinctly "old" feeling, and it's possible many of their tried and tested performers are now past their peak.  They also have made an uninspiring managerial appointment in Alan Irvine.  His latest venture was being sacked at Sheffield Weds.

Just feels from the manager and the signings that the chairman wants to do things on a budget this season.  I think we should get on now though it people agree - I think Leicester, Hull and QPR will have bolstered their squads to a greater degree than WBA by next month so the baggies will go off shorter.

Recommend £50 at 3/1 on WBA to go down.  (generally available)

Yes, I made the same recommendation on here the day he was appointed 2 or 3 weeks ago.

Good coach? - yes

Good manager - no. He was out of his depth/comfort zone with Sheff Wed in League One.

Terry Burton at WBA as technical director (or whatever he is called) is a good guy, but I'll be amazed in Irvine makes it work in the Premier League.

[tikay]

Longer term position - think West Brom might be value for relegation at 3/1.  Their transfer activity has showed a distinct lack of ambition so far.  Yes they signed Lescott but also this week went for championship veteren Chris Baird.  The other signing was Craig Gardner also on a free.  Barahino apart, the squad has a distinctly "old" feeling, and it's possible many of their tried and tested performers are now past their peak.  They also have made an uninspiring managerial appointment in Alan Irvine.  His latest venture was being sacked at Sheffield Weds.

Just feels from the manager and the signings that the chairman wants to do things on a budget this season.  I think we should get on now though it people agree - I think Leicester, Hull and QPR will have bolstered their squads to a greater degree than WBA by next month so the baggies will go off shorter.

Recommend £50 at 3/1 on WBA to go down.  (generally available)

Yes, I made the same recommendation on here the day he was appointed 2 or 3 weeks ago.

Good coach? - yes

Good manager - no. He was out of his depth/comfort zone with Sheff Wed in League One.

Terry Burton at WBA as technical director (or whatever he is called) is a good guy, but I'll be amazed in Irvine makes it work in the Premier League.

Over to you Tighty, but I like both these Posts.

[tikay]

Politics

it is under a year to the general election. Opportunities for the thread will abound

I talked before the Euro elections about the prospects for the Lib Dems (they polled under 7% and came 5th with 2 seats), then at the Newark by-election about the possibility of losing their deposit. Both bets won

For the general, the LD's have 57 MPs and received 23% of the vote

All polls currently have them in the 7-10% range for next year

their problem is widely known. In a coalition which their core support objected to, with a partner the LD grass roots does not like they can no longer be seen as a protest vote against the Conservatives. you might as well vote labour if you are left leaning...

whilst the economy is improving, and labour is struggling to pull that far ahead in the polls (no overall majority is i think most likely) the LDs are receiving no poll benefit from either

I struggle to see how their vote shores up in 2015

Of those 57 MPs, around 24 are safe seats.

another 3-5 are likely to be held, but far from sure things

that leaves around 27-30 seats that might swing, if the factors above are correct. An issue here is that so many LD seats are marginals, and it takes a comparatively small swing to lose to labour in the north, the snp further north, or the tories in the south and south west. Much less likely to soak up "neither of the main party" votes now as they are part of the establishment...Whether UKIP does for the tory vote in the South West and by extension keeps some LD's in is a risk, clearly

When it comes to the debates, which Clegg won last time..voters had had little exposure to him, presented something different etc the exact reverse will happen this time. He cannot make the same appeal

The blogger and radio presenter Iain Dale analysed seat by seat yesterday

http://iaindale.com/posts/2014/07/06/updated-seat-by-seat-forecast-why-the-libdems-will-win-fewer-than-30-seats-at-the-next-election

Electoral Calculus, to just put one pollster up, has a 2015 prediction as follows

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

looking at all this yesterday, and comparing it to betting markets

Ladbrokes offer 10/11 under 33.5 seats http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-liberal-democrats

Ladbrokes also offer 100/30 21-30 seats http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-liberal-democrats-banded

in that latter market over 30 seats is a 7/4 favourite. I think 21-30 should be favourite



Recommend £110 Under 33.5 seats at 10/11. The central price should be +/- 28-30 seats

Recommend £30 21-30 Seats at 100-30

both Ladbrokes

Lovely stuff Rich, thanks.

BOTH bets placed, BUT, we were Restricted to £50 on the "Under 33.5 seats".

2 BETS PLACED

[TightEnd]

Longer term position - think West Brom might be value for relegation at 3/1.  Their transfer activity has showed a distinct lack of ambition so far.  Yes they signed Lescott but also this week went for championship veteren Chris Baird.  The other signing was Craig Gardner also on a free.  Barahino apart, the squad has a distinctly "old" feeling, and it's possible many of their tried and tested performers are now past their peak.  They also have made an uninspiring managerial appointment in Alan Irvine.  His latest venture was being sacked at Sheffield Weds.

Just feels from the manager and the signings that the chairman wants to do things on a budget this season.  I think we should get on now though it people agree - I think Leicester, Hull and QPR will have bolstered their squads to a greater degree than WBA by next month so the baggies will go off shorter.

Recommend £50 at 3/1 on WBA to go down.  (generally available)

Yes, I made the same recommendation on here the day he was appointed 2 or 3 weeks ago.

Good coach? - yes

Good manager - no. He was out of his depth/comfort zone with Sheff Wed in League One.

Terry Burton at WBA as technical director (or whatever he is called) is a good guy, but I'll be amazed in Irvine makes it work in the Premier League.

Over to you Tighty, but I like both these Posts.

16 Aug 2014 - English Premier League 2014/15 - Relegation - Outright
Tip It

West Brom @ 3/1

Stake : £50.00
Estimated Returns : £
200.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001018/F

[Mark_Porter]

http://espn.go.com/blog/poker/post/_/id/1739/day-1b-recap-bigger-field-brings-life-to-rio?poker

Anticipation is at its peak for Day 1C. With over 3,000 players already registered for the final starting day, it's likely that Day 1C will be the largest single starting day in main event history. Play is expected to take place all across the Rio, and will not be limited to the convention center. It seems likely that the total field size will hover near the 7,000-player mark, a number that will reiterate the re-emergence of poker after a number of years filled with challenging times.