Tips for Tikay

[JoeBeevers]

It looks like there is a real difference of opinion in the Ivey finishing position bets. I've just bet Neil (someone that I rarely if ever would oppose) and I'm going over.

With 1800 left and 4x average I think the 100 /120 number is a fair line but I like the overs.

For a spread I would make it in the low 300s I think.

I've always been a big fan of Ivey's play, he is the best and I would like to be 10% as good, but there is always a number at which I am interested. Laying around 20/1 for him to win it is a max lay for me.

[Bazzaboy]

Boxing

Eddie Hearn is serving up a card full of uncompetitive tripe this weekend.  That said one fight has caught my eye.  Rocky Fielding is a super-middle prospect who has yet to really be tested.  He is up against Noe Gonzalez Alcoba, an Argentinian with a good record on paper but it's difficult to gauge just how good he is as he has campaigned in South America.  He has however stepped up in class 3 times and been exposed against Felix Sturm, Adonis Stevenson and George Groves.  He has lost all of them however all 3 are world class operators so no shame in those defeats and all three would record comfortable wins against Fielding if there paths were to cross at this stage.

This fight reminds me a lot of a fight involving another super middle prospect, Frank Buglioni who lost at long odds on against Sergey Khomitsky.  Khomistsky had multiple defeats on his record but when you went through it everyone who had beaten him was a far better fighter than Buglioni was.  I think we have a similar spot here.  We can get 12/1 on Alcoba with 365 which has to be too big.  Recommend £15 if you can get it (11/1 with 888 is fine and would happily take 10/1 as well).

[Bad Beat]

 I just bet 50/1 and 9/1 to win and November 9. The Geezer that started this thread has rushed off to do the same. Happy to bet top 100 at evens if anyone still wants.

[claypole]

I've just followed the guy that started the thread place only at - didn't fancy the 50s but think the 9/1 to FT is value.  Not sure why so don't ask me I am not as clever as you guys lol

[Bad Beat]

 I agree that price is better of the two, I do like the 50/1 but I can see that is pretty subjective, think the other things (9/1 final and evens top 100) are more objective.

[claypole]

I agree that price is better of the two, I do like the 50/1 but I can see that is pretty subjective, think the other things (9/1 final and evens top 100) are more objective.

Gl us and The Camel

[horseplayer]

Something tells me next week may be busy...

Betfair ‏@Betfair  18m
Open Championship: We're paying EIGHT places on each way bets next week!! More details > http://btfr.co/OpenChampionship-CB … pic.twitter.com/ST2Jwjg9fQ

[horseplayer]

few t+c's

1
Place your pre-tournament Sportsbook each-way singles bets on The Open Championship Outright Winner market.
2
Golfers finishing in 1st to 6th position inclusive will be paid out to your place stake at 1/4* odds
3
Golfers finishing in 7th or 8th position will be paid out to your place stake at 1/4* odds (£/€25 max qualifying place stake per customer, per selection)


Even so looks a no brainer

[Ant040689]

And if you made the the ew bet with them before this promo it means ure screwed?

Edit: They make good early bets according to live chat.

[Doobs]

Betfair Sportsbook are biggest on Martin Kaymer and Graeme McDowell for the Open.  Kaymer's win price is more or less on the exchange win price, McDowell's place price is more or less the exchange price on the place (5 places only). 

Suggest it is fairly +EV to bet £15 e/w Kaymer and £10 e/w on McDowell before the price goes on the Sportsbook.

Paddies are paying 7 places but they don't like my money.

[Doobs]

Not sure we should do any Hills bets right now.  Integral would normally be obvious, but I guess Sky Lantern could easily come out, and Integral has no form on the soft.  The Cherry Hinton* could lose runners too leaving us stuffed.

* The Cherry Hinton that used to be run during the Newmarket July Meeting is now known as the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes and is now run during the Newmarket July Festival.  Bah Humbug.

[Omm]

Integral is 3-1 with Coral at 8:30am this morning, max stake £10 and still qualifies for their offer if beaten by a head money back as a free bet. Only a tenner but probably worth doing.

[horseplayer]

Mentioned to someone about the 8 places last night

He is a good regular golf punter but never bets each way on the golf. Even when i mentioned the offer he wasnt interested.

Think we have been here before but at what number of places does it become +ev to back each way in a golf tournament with usually so many runners and more importantly why?

thanks

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £36.64

Outstanding Bets £2263.20

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=27

A loss of £50 yesterday with Arab Spring and Forever now both losing at Newmarket, and outside the top 2, for -£25 each

think Arab Spring is in light blue in the background

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In cycling no change in the general classification of the TdeF after a sprinters stage won by Griepel

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At Trent Bridge, on a pitch as English as a penguin in a sombrero...welcome to Chennai bridge

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after

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and

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the impact of no DRS was felt. good for us, as Vijay was already 100+ ahead of Pujara

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Fognini beat Golubevs 4 and 4 in the Mercedes open, now plays Giraldo in the quarter finals

In the Scottish Open Jaidee shot a par first round of 71, 7 shots behind the 64 of McIlroy

tonight, a big night for Worcs, Glamorgan and Yorkshire in our bets

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

Mentioned to someone about the 8 places last night

He is a good regular golf punter but never bets each way on the golf. Even when i mentioned the offer he wasnt interested.

Think we have been here before but at what number of places does it become +ev to back each way in a golf tournament with usually so many runners and more importantly why?

thanks

Firstly the bets I put up last night are going to be so good that we shouldn't get derailed and should put them on before the price goes. 

I think the correct answer to your question is it depends.  Some golfers are always going to be better each way bets than others.  I looked sat a Tiger Woods record a year or so ago, and he had way more firsts than any other place.  I can't remember the exact numbers, but he had something like as many firsts as he had 2nd to 5ths combined, it may even have been more.  So I suspect you could go up to 8 places and he would always be a bad each way bet.  I think this must apply to other golfers too.  When faced with a scenario where they could take one shot where the risk of hitting a hazard was high and, but it would give them a bigger chance of winning, some golfers would be more likely to go for it than others. 

In addition the maths on each way is going to be generally better for bigger priced golfers.  A golfer that is say 12/1 to win is likely to be a bigger price to be 1st than 2nd, and a bigger price to be 2nd than 3rd etc.

I think quarter first 4 is likely to be fair enough overall, but people tend to back shorter priced golfers as a rule and the bigger priced runners tend to be further from Betfair, so overall quarter first 5 is probably about par.  Anything bigger is likely to give you value opportunities, 8 is fantastic. 

Just because your friend never backs each way doesn't mean it is bad.  There is more than one way to make money from betting, and it is entirely possible to make money from betting whilst making mistakes.