Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

I think we should oppose Foggy Dewhurst today when he plays Cuevas. Foggy has looked to be in his weird self defeating place in the last 2 tournaments, whilst Cuevas is on a long winning run which included winning the tournament at Bastad. They met earlier this year on clay with Foggy winning a 3 setter but Cuevas is the man currently in form.

Suggest £20 Cuevas @ 13/10 with betfair.

[tikay]

Welsh coaching team messed up the 2nd lift for Michaela.  Don't think it would have been good enough on the day, she needed a bigger snatch to give us a chance. 

That's the story of my life fella.

You are on holiday, with family Q, on a beach in sunny Spain, & still managed to be first in with that.

Impressive dedication to the cause.

 

[TightEnd]

After qualifying the Toro Rosso bet looks good, but the bet on Magnussen looks dead. He qualified 10th after a crash in Q3 and will now start from the pit lane as McLaren need to change his chassis gearbox.

Picked out one more bet:

Group C (BUT/HUL/MAG/PER): Nico Hulkenberg at 21/10 with Paddy Power.

Force India looked incredibly strong during their longer runs on Friday - pretty much only behind Mercedes on race pace, they should really be beating McLaren tomorrow. Button starts 7th, Hulkenberg 9th, Perez 12th, Magnussen from the pit lane. I think at that price Hulkenberg is worth a £5 bet. I would have said £10, but Perez could beat Hulkenberg which is a concern. Also, cooler conditions is a worry for Force India - their car suits either hot or wet conditions. Still, there's value there and it's a very possible outcome.

Link: http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/group-c

 Win
Single: N Hulkenberg @ 21/10
1 line at £5.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £5.00
Potential returns: £15.50
No: O/23146337/0000481

Total stake: £5.00

[TightEnd]

I've been speaking to Scotty about this, decided it's good enough to stick up here, he will be along soon to second it.

From the Greyhound thread

CORAL SUSSEX CUP -FINAL
1 FOREST GAVIN  2 JAYTEE LIGHTNING  3 SIDAZ PEDRO  4 CATHYS CLOWN  5 BUBBLY GOLD 6 EXOCET (M)
 
Having done quite a lot of studying yesterday ive decided to put my thoughts up on the big race and get the value that is still available on Forest Gavin at 5-1.

A few facts:

Won 3 out of 8 at Hove over distance, However coming 2nd four times which is quite an impressive record considering they were too Droopy’s Jarrow and Norris, Bubbly Gold, Guinness Spark and Islas Scolari which are all good dogs.

Dubai indicated the dog needed the run which could lead to it coming back into form. If it runs 29.69 with a 4.08 sectional (29/05) that could be good enough to win the race.

In its last 3 races it’s race time has improved with the 3 previous to that all being sub 30 seconds. No reason for it not to carry on improving.

If you look at the averages of his races at Hove it has a sectional of 4.13 (Exocet 4.2, BG 4.23) and a race time of 29.90 (exocet 29.90 BG 29.85)

Few Observation:

No reason why Exocet should be 7/4 and Gavin 5-1 when in reality they are much closer together, the value is with T1. Should not be 5’s come the night.

Scotty put this up as an Ante post bet, after speaking we are both quite hot on it. We all know Scotty is a great judge of the hounds.

Round up:

Great Race and all the dogs should be closer together in price, I would be happy laying Exocet if it goes lower than 7/4, I can see Forest Gavin improving again with the added confidence that Scotty has put it up ante post and Dubai had positive news about it (another great judge of dogs). I love Bubbly Gold but its starting has let it down recently, got away with it in early rounds but the dogs are much better now and they will not let him away with it priced around 4-1 is right, Sidaz Pedro has not shown the early that it has in Ireland, if it traps 1st and goes round the bend in front it will probably not be caught as it second bend speed is probably the fastest, but it hasn’t done it yet, probably priced right at 6-1. Cathys Clown might lead T1 at the bend but something will catch it by the line, price is right for me.  T2 Jaytee Lightning should not be 8-1 problem for me is it doesn’t clear T1 from the traps so I can’t see it winning from behind. For me Forest Gavin should be at least a couple of points less making it the value in the race.

Selection

£20 win Forest Gavin @ 5-1

(For full disclosure I have got Forest Gavin, Bubbly Gold and Exocet all ante post)

Yeah, agree with this - looks the best priced greyhound in the race. Also good to have a TfT interest on Tuesday's Sky Dogs. Would want 5/1 though.

we are trying to get matched on betfair at over 5/1

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T.

I think we should oppose Foggy Dewhurst today when he plays Cuevas. Foggy has looked to be in his weird self defeating place in the last 2 tournaments, whilst Cuevas is on a long winning run which included winning the tournament at Bastad. They met earlier this year on clay with Foggy winning a 3 setter but Cuevas is the man currently in form.

Suggest £20 Cuevas @ 13/10 with betfair.

13/10 is not available on betfair

6/5 sportsbook or

Pablo Cuevas Match Odds    2.32    £20.00    
£26.40
Ref: 39521526083M Matched: 09:14 27-Jul-14

[tikay]

What time (UK) does the F1 race commence, please?

[TightEnd]

What time (UK) does the F1 race commence, please?

1pm

[tikay]

What time (UK) does the F1 race commence, please?

1pm

Thanks.

[RickBFA]

5.10 Pontefract - there are 9 runners with 2 relatively short priced horses.

Cliff is seen as the next best with the rest at quite big prices.

Cliff is as low as 5/1 with WH, but 12/1 with Sadbrokes.

I've just backed it e/w at 12/1, that looks a value bet to me.

Perhaps someone has a view?

[arbboy]

5.10 Pontefract - there are 9 runners with 2 relatively short priced horses.

Cliff is seen as the next best with the rest at quite big prices.

Cliff is as low as 5/1 with WH, but 12/1 with Sadbrokes.

I've just backed it e/w at 12/1, that looks a value bet to me.

Perhaps someone has a view?

The best bet in the race is the fav ew at 10/11 by a mile.  It's currently trading around 1/12 a place and we get 2/11 a place.   The win price on bf is also been done for much lower than 10/11 for substantial cash as well.  If you back it with a BOG firm you will be ensured against any drift as well if you take the 10/11 now.

Cliff is also a good ew bet place wise but you are going to have to give up some ev on the win part of the bet plus you will struggle to get much on at 12/1 in a race like this.

[Bad Beat]

 I think you've done well. The race is filthy for each-way as witnessed by the fact that someone want 2.2 a place on Betfair about a horse (your Cliff) that "trades" 14-22 to win.

 There are five horses in this race having their 3rd run and with most of those looking to finish down the field and get a mark that makes it very uncompetitive. The two unraced on the flat include one who has been tailed off in bumpers. Favourite Hanno was only gelded 44 days ago, quite a quick return for me to bet him at odd-on after such a traumatic incident.

 The only downsides are that these bets kill accounts very quickly and given it will most likely come either 3rd or 4th you make very little (definitely +ev but a good account is worth so much more). The other small thing is the Ponte ground is firming p and Sunday is the day of the week with most non-runners due to the early declarations. If 9 was to become 7 you would have a poor e/w bet.

 Still think 12/1 is typical of the way the game is going, slavishly follow the machine with no thought. There is £4 at 11/1 £2 at 11.5 and £3 at 14 and a multi-national publicly quoted company are basing their trading decisions on that. God help the share holders.

[tikay]

I think you've done well. The race is filthy for each-way as witnessed by the fact that someone want 2.2 a place on Betfair about a horse (your Cliff) that "trades" 14-22 to win.

 There are five horses in this race having their 3rd run and with most of those looking to finish down the field and get a mark that makes it very uncompetitive. The two unraced on the flat include one who has been tailed off in bumpers. Favourite Hanno was only gelded 44 days ago, quite a quick return for me to bet him at odd-on after such a traumatic incident.

 The only downsides are that these bets kill accounts very quickly and given it will most likely come either 3rd or 4th you make very little (definitely +ev but a good account is worth so much more). The other small thing is the Ponte ground is firming p and Sunday is the day of the week with most non-runners due to the early declarations. If 9 was to become 7 you would have a poor e/w bet.

 Still think 12/1 is typical of the way the game is going, slavishly follow the machine with no thought. There is £4 at 11/1 £2 at 11.5 and £3 at 14 and a multi-national publicly quoted company are basing their trading decisions on that. God help the share holders.

Sigh.

Someone told me "wait for the share price to turn", so I did. Think that was in 1991.

I met, & have come to know, Richard Glynn quite well via some occasional stuff a bookmakers collective does for GOSH, & he's actually a really nice chap. All things considered, I resist the temptation to talk shop.

[RickBFA]

Thanks for the feedback on the horse.

I understand the worry about keeping accounts open.

I think this has been discussed before. I don't bother with e/w doubles etc online and will go into shops instead for those.

I still like to throw in the odd multiple horse racing or football bet to play on a point raised by Rich Trigg ages ago about giving the bookies something that keeps your account open.

Its interesting - I'll typically have a few hundred pounds on various single horse racing bets on a Saturday morning between 8-10am, and those prices usually tumble significantly by the afternoon.

If you throw in a £20 or £30 multiple on those 5 or 6 horses in trebles upwards, then you are getting great prices compared to the SP and the bookies like multiples.

I don't think its a bad strategy given the brilliant post by Ed Gascoigne (I think) about +EV multiple betting a while ago.

Not sure Badbeat or Arbboy will agree with me though!!

[tikay]

Should we have an interest in the Proper Cricket Test Match which starts shortly?

England won the tossy thing, & bat first.

India are 3/1, 15/8 the draw, & England 6/4.

I don't recall the last time England won a Proper Cricket match, but they are the jolly. Do these prices reflect reality?

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-india/3rd-test/winner

[arbboy]

Thanks for the feedback on the horse.

I understand the worry about keeping accounts open.

I think this has been discussed before. I don't bother with e/w doubles etc online and will go into shops instead for those.

I still like to throw in the odd multiple horse racing or football bet to play on a point raised by Rich Trigg ages ago about giving the bookies something that keeps your account open.

Its interesting - I'll typically have a few hundred pounds on various single horse racing bets on a Saturday morning between 8-10am, and those prices usually tumble significantly by the afternoon.

If you throw in a £20 or £30 multiple on those 5 or 6 horses in trebles upwards, then you are getting great prices compared to the SP and the bookies like multiples.

I don't think its a bad strategy given the brilliant post by Ed Gascoigne (I think) about +EV multiple betting a while ago.

Not sure Badbeat or Arbboy will agree with me though!!

Course it's a great bet long term.  The problem with multiples is you are buying increased variance but as long as you are betting accordingly to your roll then it shouldn't be a problem.  If it helps keep accounts open then it's def worth doing.  Sounds like you are doing something right because numerous people who do virtually the same as you are getting their account's closed more and more frequently.