Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Next person who writes "flicking it in" gets a slap round the chops, & by way of punishment, will be obliged to read Tom's Dreary Diary for an entire week.

A poker playing acquaintance of mine, arse hanging out of his trousers, not got 2 pennies to rub together, can only play when staked, insists on saying it when contemplating buying in to £1,000 events. Flicking it in my arse.

Ridic expression. Presumably, some adolescent read it on 2+2 & thought it sounded cool.

It's nearly as irksome as "a cheeky bet". WTF is that supposed to mean?

And yesterday, I read in Commonwealth Games chit-chat, "I totally have a date with an athlete". Totally?

It'll be on here soon, mark my words. Sheep ftw.

I think my head might just explode if I see any of that nonsense on here again.

Maybe you should have considered your words better....

[simonnatur]

 My Post from Racing thread : "My interest was piqued by Moonraker after he won on his only run to date and the the 2nd & 3rd went on to win next time out. The second Mubtaghaa then went on to finish 3rd in the Windsor Castle.
He is entered for the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh 10/08/2014 and the Nunthorpe.

I have the feeling (probably misguided) that he maybe something special and is currently 12/1 for the 2.35 Goodwood tomorrow in a race that should be ok for ew so long as 8 go. I've had a small bet this evening and will be tempted to go in again tomorrow if the 12`s and number of runners hold up."

I wasn't going to put this up for Fred but changed my mind when Calum Madell (Theyoungracegoer.com) also rated this horse very highly in his blog today. I propose £10 e/w or whatever you are comfortable with. Currently 12-1 but with such a firm short priced fav I see little prospect of the price going and would rather wait till closer the off to ensure at least 8 runners since the e/w value is key to the bet.  Wouldn't put you off asking for a highly speculative couple of quid to win on Betty @ 19 and 21 and see if you get matched.

[DungBeetle]

Championship Elders, Derby are 11/4 with Mr Parr to get promoted. They look set to get Tom Carroll on loan. What difference is he likely to make? He's a player spurs have spoken highly of for some time and the second loan spell (having been at QPR last year) is an indication of the club believing game time will help him improve.

I didn't see much of him last year. Is he going to fill a gap for Derby? How much better does he make the side?

Is backing the front of the market in the championship a completely ridiculous idea?
[/quote

Hi Tal - Carroll is solid enough but he's not a game changer. Didn't make too much difference to QPR last year.  More importantly, Derby spent £2 million on George Thorne from WBA and now he is injured for 9 months which is a big blow for them.

[TightEnd]

My Post from Racing thread : "My interest was piqued by Moonraker after he won on his only run to date and the the 2nd & 3rd went on to win next time out. The second Mubtaghaa then went on to finish 3rd in the Windsor Castle.
He is entered for the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh 10/08/2014 and the Nunthorpe.

I have the feeling (probably misguided) that he maybe something special and is currently 12/1 for the 2.35 Goodwood tomorrow in a race that should be ok for ew so long as 8 go. I've had a small bet this evening and will be tempted to go in again tomorrow if the 12`s and number of runners hold up."

I wasn't going to put this up for Fred but changed my mind when Calum Madell (Theyoungracegoer.com) also rated this horse very highly in his blog today. I propose £10 e/w or whatever you are comfortable with. Currently 12-1 but with such a firm short priced fav I see little prospect of the price going and would rather wait till closer the off to ensure at least 8 runners since the e/w value is key to the bet.  Wouldn't put you off asking for a highly speculative couple of quid to win on Betty @ 19 and 21 and see if you get matched.

thanks

prod us when you are sure enough of 8 runners that the thread should get on

[tikay]

Next person who writes "flicking it in" gets a slap round the chops, & by way of punishment, will be obliged to read Tom's Dreary Diary for an entire week.

A poker playing acquaintance of mine, arse hanging out of his trousers, not got 2 pennies to rub together, can only play when staked, insists on saying it when contemplating buying in to £1,000 events. Flicking it in my arse.

Ridic expression. Presumably, some adolescent read it on 2+2 & thought it sounded cool.

It's nearly as irksome as "a cheeky bet". WTF is that supposed to mean?

And yesterday, I read in Commonwealth Games chit-chat, "I totally have a date with an athlete". Totally?

It'll be on here soon, mark my words. Sheep ftw.

I think my head might just explode if I see any of that nonsense on here again.

Maybe you should have considered your words better....

Which reminds me that my "swooshed" out-take, which had north of 7,000 views last time I looked, has been removed due to "third party copyright infringements".


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfrVzXirc-Y&feature=youtu.be

[Doobs]

We should probably do the followung £25s on Hills mobile.


Hills 2/5 on Ivawood is incredibly dull, but virtually matches Betafir and s a free bet for 2nd.  Presumably Martin Lewis is copying and pasting this right now into his daily newsletter?

Estimate in the 3.10 at 7/4 is close enough to be a bet too.

Both races look very good each way ones (maybe the first is an account closer, but it is Goodwood).  But as mentioned above we should probably wait for 8, though I think the Ivawood race may even be good with 6?

[arbboy]

Phew what a scorcher!

Hillies' prices are back to where they were before we flicked in a July max.

8/13 July, 13/8 August.

We can always bale out now by backing August at 13/8?

That sayed, MetOffice go with...

"UK Outlook for Monday 4 Aug 2014 to Wednesday 13 Aug 2014:

Many areas probably starting off fine and generally dry on Monday. However, cloud and rain, possibly heavy at times, will gradually spread from the west through the latter part of Monday, through probably not reaching eastern regions until later on Tuesday. The unsettled theme is likely to continue until the end of the period, although there may be more in the way of drier and brighter conditions developing across the south and east later. Temperatures generally near normal, but often warm towards the south and east. Winds generally light to moderate for most, but perhaps locally strong in the northwest, with a risk of gales in some exposed western parts into the second half of next week."

Long-term weather forecasts can usually be ignored according to one of my golf buddies, who flies a plane. He says the MetOffice are clowns.

The DM yday wrote an article saying the exact opposite and made me top up at 8/13 on July yesterday. 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2710463/Is-sun-setting-hot-summer-Warmest-July-decade-replaced-showers-August.html

[TightEnd]

We should probably do the followung £25s on Hills mobile.


Hills 2/5 on Ivawood is incredibly dull, but virtually matches Betafir and s a free bet for 2nd.  Presumably Martin Lewis is copying and pasting this right now into his daily newsletter?

Estimate in the 3.10 at 7/4 is close enough to be a bet too.

Both races look very good each way ones (maybe the first is an account closer, but it is Goodwood).  But as mentioned above we should probably wait for 8, though I think the Ivawood race may even be good with 6?

£25 Ivawood 2/5 and Estimate 2/1 both placed WH Mobile, money back as a free bet if 2nd

[arbboy]

Didnt realise Jaffa had his own dog?  Kept that quiet Jeff!

http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/dog_home.sd?dog_id=430439

Just hosed up in a sprint at Sheff.

[horseplayer]

Just returned from a lovely evening away in rural Sussex

On packed trained got talking to a lovely lady in a great dress obviously going to Goodwood. Turns out she is Charles Bishop other half.

The word from Charlie is his mount in the last "will go close" (disclaimer his first reply said a tip dont back horses

I darent have the heart to tell her what i think of Channon as a trainer as she was waxing lyrically that he had been a really good boss to her man e.t.c

[Doobs]

Phew what a scorcher!

Hillies' prices are back to where they were before we flicked in a July max.

8/13 July, 13/8 August.

We can always bale out now by backing August at 13/8?

That sayed, MetOffice go with...

"UK Outlook for Monday 4 Aug 2014 to Wednesday 13 Aug 2014:

Many areas probably starting off fine and generally dry on Monday. However, cloud and rain, possibly heavy at times, will gradually spread from the west through the latter part of Monday, through probably not reaching eastern regions until later on Tuesday. The unsettled theme is likely to continue until the end of the period, although there may be more in the way of drier and brighter conditions developing across the south and east later. Temperatures generally near normal, but often warm towards the south and east. Winds generally light to moderate for most, but perhaps locally strong in the northwest, with a risk of gales in some exposed western parts into the second half of next week."

Long-term weather forecasts can usually be ignored according to one of my golf buddies, who flies a plane. He says the MetOffice are clowns.

The DM yday wrote an article saying the exact opposite and made me top up at 8/13 on July yesterday. 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2710463/Is-sun-setting-hot-summer-Warmest-July-decade-replaced-showers-August.html

Another bastion of truth?

I have never worked for the Met Office, but know a bit about long range forecasting.  You build what can be very good mathematical models of future events, but you have two big issues.

The further away from now, the more uncertain the outcome will be.  So they have a pretty good idea what iis likely to happen in the next day or two, but after that you lose a bit of accuracy.  Likewise I can say that your pension fund is pretty likely to be within 0% and 10% of today's value in a year's time.  You ask me what it is in 5 years and the range is going to be pretty big.  20 years time when you retire, it is going to be very uncertain.  Within the things I can model, I am going to be more certain on things like interest rates and the projected mortality rates of people.  I expect weather forecasters are going to know that there is going to be a front coming through, but when exactly it comes through and where it rains isn't going to be so clear.  When it is coming from several thousand miles away, their model will be producing some fairly big ranges for timings, where it is going, and if it is going to get here at all.

The other big problem that the Met Office and we have is that the general public as a whole are pretty bad at looking at a lot of data.  So I could send everyone a nice stochastic projection showing how likely thier pension pot is going to be in each range of values.  You send that to most people and they will be like wtf?  A lot of people have a great difficulty with percentages for instance, so their model may tell them there is a 70% chance of rain, that wind between 0 to 5 mph is 14% likely, 5 and 10 mph is 63% likely and abovethat is 23%.  But a lot of people watching can only cope with a temparature and a symbol with the sun on it.  Even then the temperature is probably an issue.  If they put all the stuff i'd like to see up there, they are going to lose a lot of viewers.  It is a bit like when I tune into Top Gear, I don't really want them to explain exactly how the engine management system works on the latest Ferrari, I am just happy looking at it and watching somebody drive it fast.

I am guessng that when the computer says that it is 90% certain to be dry and sunny tomorrow, the BBC just plonk a sun on their weather map.  It is probably the best thing to do given what most people can take in.  When it rains on Goodwood racecourse, many of the people nearby will think well rain was always a possibility, others will have spent the whole night watering their gardens and now think weather forecasters are complete clowns. 

if people actually went to the Met Office site there is some good stuff there.  You can get an idea of the uncertainty of some of the longer range forecasts by just reading the commentary.  I particularly like the one up there now for 15 to 30 days.  With no particularly strong signals regarding weather patterns over the UK during the latter part of August, conditions are more likely than not to be close to climatology.   They are basically saying their model is throwing up a range of results in line with long term aveages but there is no real certainty where the weather will be.  Much better to just say that than produce some balderdash about "forecasters" saying it is possibly going to be the HOTTEST August ever!! or maybe the WETTEST August ever!!! 

Anyway must dash, I need to cut the lawn and it might rain later.

[horseplayer]

Weather Forecasters go in the same bracket as Paddock watchers in racing for me....

Would love to see some of these paddock "experts" give their opinions without seeing the betting, wonder if they would pick the first 4 in the betting most of the time then

[claypole]

Just returned from a lovely evening away in rural Sussex

On packed trained got talking to a lovely lady in a great dress obviously going to Goodwood. Turns out she is Charles Bishop other half.

The word from Charlie is his mount in the last "will go close" (disclaimer his first reply said a tip dont back horses

I darent have the heart to tell her what i think of Channon as a trainer as she was waxing lyrically that he had been a really good boss to her man e.t.c

I love tips like this for an ice cream sweat; and in my experience thy generally aren't far off the mark if you've established a genuine connection with I individual.

Who didn't love the "'man in a the chip shop" The New One sweat; turned out to be some horse longer term.

[BigAdz]

Weather Forecasters go in the same bracket as Paddock watchers in racing for me....

Would love to see some of these paddock "experts" give their opinions without seeing the betting, wonder if they would pick the first 4 in the betting most of the time then

Ah yes, my mate Ken Pittersen. Best/Easiest job in the world......

[Tal]

First thought for the eneffelle season...

I'm intending to do a proper bit of work on the AFC East this weekend, with a view to proposing some bets. One that's struck me by surprise straight away is the Miami Finishing Position market that the red shouty man has.

Second: 6/4
Third: 2/1
Fourth: 4/1
First: 5/1

Now, we can obviously exclude divisional champs. The Patriots with Wilfork, Vereen and The Gronk back are a completely different prospect to 2013/14. They could win 12 games this season. Miami should be delighted with 8.

Jets and Bills have strengthened in the summer; the Dolphins haven't brought in the same level of new blood. Tannehill can't have much longer to go as the franchise QB, he has a roster devoid of experience (and, arguably, much talent) and the team doesn't have enough firepower against three strong defences twice to threaten at the top. The Jets have made some excellent signings and I can see them making the playoffs (mug comment, granted).

Miami's early schedule includes Kansas City (h), Oakland away and Green Bay at home, followed by a trip to Chicago. After eight weeks, they could very realistically be 2-5 (bye in week 5) and heaped in pressure.

It looks like a two horse race for third between Buffalo and Miami and 4/1 for it to be Buffalo pipping Miami seems crazy to me. Buffalo are 2/1 to finish third btw in the equivalent market with the same bookie.

Deep breath...

Recommend £50 on Miami to finish fourth in the AFC East at 4/1 with the red shouty man.





(Also, don't tell Flushy)