Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

A little late, but I have doen a trawl on the USPGA.  As expected there isn't nearly as much value as there was at The Open.

Firstly, Betfair Sportsbook is offering up to a £25 free bet if Rory wins on your first bet only.  I have done the boring thing and just plumped for Adam Scott at 12/1.  Even without the offer he is around about the betfair win and place prices.  In addition you get 6 places instead of 5 and you get the free bet if Rory wins the one in six times the Betfair market tells me he should.  Suggest £20 e/w at 12/1 with BFSB on Scott> I am not going for the full  £25 to reflect the fact we don't want to be putting too much on overall.  if the 12/1 has gone, Rose at 16/1 and Stenson at 28/1 are better than taking 11/1 about Rose.

Jim Furyk was 40/1 ealier in the week, and I grabbed a bit of that.  He frequently shows up on the filters as his place odds on Betfair are always shorter than a quarter the win odds.  I assume this is because he seems very good at getting in contention.  Anyway he still passes the filters at 35/1 (b365, BMU, PP and Shy)  Suggest £15 e/w if we can get 35/1.

Ryan Moore is next up, form figures of 5,7,12 and 8 seem more than enough to make the place price good.  He was 80/1 earlier in the week, but even at 66/1 he looks ok to me.  This is available in multiple spots, but please avoid Boyles as they are only 5 places.
Suggest £10 e/w if we can get 66/1.

Those with Shy can get Zach Johnson at 80/1 which is out of line with everybody else, and they may even lay you a tenner if you have never had a bet with them before.

Finally Steve Stricker is an arb vs Betfair if you can get on, and you get 6 places instead of 4.  Suggest £10 e/w with BMU if you can get the 125/1.  I still think he looks fine at 100/1 but reduce the bet to £5 e/w.

There are a few more marginal ones I have bet, but don't want to overwhelm the thread.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £107.29

Outstanding Bets £3496.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=28

A profit of £50 yesterday as King Kane won the Greyhound TV Trophy.

ongoing positions

- Kent are now won three tied one in four games of the RLC after easily beating Glamorgan.

- Sussex beat Surrey in the same competition

4 games into the 8 game groups for each, top 4 through

 Royal London One-Day Cup - Group B
   Team    Played    Won    Lost    Tied    N/R    R/R    Points
1    Kent    4    3    0    1    0    0.247    7.0
2    Somerset    4    2    1    1    0    0.709    5.0
3    Nottinghamshire    3    2    0    1    0    0.267    5.0
4    Glamorgan    4    2    2    0    0    0.179    4.0
5    Warwickshire    4    2    2    0    0    -0.073    4.0
6    Sussex    4    2    2    0    0    -0.503    4.0
7    Durham    4    1    3    0    0    -0.096    2.0
8    Middlesex    3    1    2    0    0    -0.295    2.0
9    Surrey    4    0    3    1    0    -0.422    1.0

A touch early to get excited about Kent at 33-1, but performing well

- Djokovic crept past Monfils at ATP Toronto, 7-6 in the final set

- Richard Hughes rode a 4 timer at Brighton..as the headline today says...

Click to see full-size image.

- A couple of implications for bets With Britt Hesbeenboughtforwonga's transfer to Forest. Presumably he will be replaced, for our Peterborough L1 bet and presumably it bodes well for the Conor Washington L1 goalscorer bet

- In baseball the Royals closed to within 3.5 games of the AL Central lead in beating the diamondbacks 4-3 and are now 59-53 on the year.

Click to see full-size image.

- Toronto beat the Orioles 5-1 to level their series 1-1 and the Yankees beat the Tigers

the 4th test starts at old trafford today. Here's gambhir shadow batting on the pitch yesterday. Dry, brown, win toss and bat and if India don't play Ashwin I'm off for a lie down...

Click to see full-size image.

 

[TightEnd]

A little late, but I have doen a trawl on the USPGA.  As expected there isn't nearly as much value as there was at The Open.

Firstly, Betfair Sportsbook is offering up to a £25 free bet if Rory wins on your first bet only.  I have done the boring thing and just plumped for Adam Scott at 12/1.  Even without the offer he is around about the betfair win and place prices.  In addition you get 6 places instead of 5 and you get the free bet if Rory wins the one in six times the Betfair market tells me he should.  Suggest £20 e/w at 12/1 with BFSB on Scott> I am not going for the full  £25 to reflect the fact we don't want to be putting too much on overall.  if the 12/1 has gone, Rose at 16/1 and Stenson at 28/1 are better than taking 11/1 about Rose.

Jim Furyk was 40/1 ealier in the week, and I grabbed a bit of that.  He frequently shows up on the filters as his place odds on Betfair are always shorter than a quarter the win odds.  I assume this is because he seems very good at getting in contention.  Anyway he still passes the filters at 35/1 (b365, BMU, PP and Shy)  Suggest £15 e/w if we can get 35/1.

Ryan Moore is next up, form figures of 5,7,12 and 8 seem more than enough to make the place price good.  He was 80/1 earlier in the week, but even at 66/1 he looks ok to me.  This is available in multiple spots, but please avoid Boyles as they are only 5 places.
Suggest £10 e/w if we can get 66/1.

Those with Shy can get Zach Johnson at 80/1 which is out of line with everybody else, and they may even lay you a tenner if you have never had a bet with them before.

Finally Steve Stricker is an arb vs Betfair if you can get on, and you get 6 places instead of 4.  Suggest £10 e/w with BMU if you can get the 125/1.  I still think he looks fine at 100/1 but reduce the bet to £5 e/w.

There are a few more marginal ones I have bet, but don't want to overwhelm the thread.

1. We've had a series of USPGATop10 bets. Not sure if one of these counts for first bet for the Rory offer, but anyway will proceed and cross that bridge if we come to it

2.
2014 US PGA Championship

    12/1
    £340.00
    Adam Scott
    USPGA Winner
    £20 EW 6 places
    Mney back as free bet if McIlroy wins
    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000083

3   Outright Jim Furyk (EW) (Outright - Tournament) Odds: 35/1 Stake: 30.00 Possible Return:  686.25 £15 e/w 6 places

4  Outright Ryan Moore (EW) (Outright - Tournament) Odds: 66/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  845.00 £10 ew 6 places

5  Outright Steve Stricker (EW) (Outright - Tournament) Odds: 100/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  635.00 £5 e/w 6 places

 

[TightEnd]

Neil's write up of the USPGA is free and thus we are able to follow those selections

http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/48

As part of the portfolio building process i have chosen two on which he has the most points placed, plus the sub-market ones:

33/1
Keegan Bradley
USPGA Winner
£15 EW
Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000084

90/1
£1,717.50
Gary Woodland
USPGA Winner
£15 EW

Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000085

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Top Nationalities - US PGA Championship
Top Scotsman
   Knox, Russell    9/4    
Total stake   £ 15.00
Estimated return   £ 48.75
Bet ref: 405/444 £10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Top Nationalities - US PGA Championship
Top Englishman
EW 1/5 1,2,3    Casey, Paul    10/1    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 140.00
Full stake   £ 35.00
Full estimated return   £ 188.75

Event Information:    Top South African Player
PGA Championship
2014-08-07 12:30:00
Market:    Top South African Player
Selection:    George Coetzee @ 11/1
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000660
Placed at:    08:57 07/08/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £10.00
Number of lines:    2
Stake:    £20.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £20.00
   
   
   £152.00


Overall this takes the ante-post USPGA book to about £300...we could have more if anything cries out to anyone, but perhaps keep some firepower for during the tournament on which we seem to do well eg ahead of the final round

[doubleup]

One more suggestion - if fred hasn't put any on with joke orals - they give a £10 in play free bet for £10 staked.  So I suggest £10 EW Justin Rose @ 16-1

ps the top ten bets don't count for the betfair offer

 

[BigAdz]

One more suggestion - if fred hasn't put any on with joke orals - they give a £10 in play free bet for £10 staked.  So I suggest £10 EW Justin Rose @ 16-1

ps the top ten bets don't count for the betfair offer

 

Think the £10 comes from a win only bet. Best check.

[TightEnd]

One more suggestion - if fred hasn't put any on with joke orals - they give a £10 in play free bet for £10 staked.  So I suggest £10 EW Justin Rose @ 16-1

Justin Rose16/1Outright - 07/08/2014
Each Way
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£220.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £220.00

could you please prod us when you want the £10 free bet used, and where? risk is we'll miss doing it otherwise as its a busy few days with the DTD festival starting, thanks

ps the top ten bets don't count for the betfair offer

 

thank you. Scott was the first BFSB bet placed and is the eligible bet for the Rory offer

[TightEnd]

Karabiner

I was tossing and turning last night thinking what a numpty i would look if Stenson dons his metaphorical viking helmet and wins at valhalla.

happy to place a bet if you would like?

just don't mention he's swedish.

[tikay]

Wetty Cycling Special Incoming......

Tour of Poland

I've just asked Tighty to Post a Wetty Bikey Special, as I'm a bit indisposed right now

Recommended @ 66/1, though 125/1 is available in places.

Fred cannot get on at sensible prices, but no matter, as long as the regulars get on, that's all that matters.

Thanks Wetty, & good luck all.

[tikay]

In case Tighty missed my PM, the Wetty Cyclist's name is....

Giampaola Caruso.

Be careful, he seems to have a brother, Mr Somethingelse Caruso.

All the sexy detail is in the Wetty Recommend, which at present & cannot C & P.

Good luck all.

[TightEnd]

Hello tikay,

This year's Tour of Poland has been a real head scratcher. There are a couple of things that are useful to know:
1.  The mountain stages are not particularly taxing, meaning that there shouldn't be big time gaps between the GC contenders.
2.  The final stage is a time trial, meaning that a good performance against the clock will be crucial in determining the overall winner.

As there are no stand-out time-triallists in this year's edition, but plenty of decent climbers, it is pretty difficult (for me at least) to pick a winner. Rafal Majka is understandably the favourite, and Ion Izaguirre/Peter Velits/Pieter Weening are all decent shouts. Personally, I have gone for Davide Formolo, but @ 20/1, I do not regard this as a value bet, and therefore do not suggest it for Fred. I was hoping for at least 50/1, but that price lasted for about 5 minutes on Bet365 (after I had asked for a quote!). The cheek.

Today, however, sees an interesting stage in the mountains. The final climb is not very steep (average 4.5%), so I can see a big bunch being together near the end. However, about 200m from the line there is a 16% ramp that might serve as a launchpad for the winner.

The bookies are torn between Julian Arredondo and Rafal Majka as the favourite. I would personally go for Arredondo, as he has a great turn of speed, and can climb like nobody's business. However, the 4/1 that is on offer is not particularly attractive in this closely matched field. Definitely a price for an accumulator.

The Movistar team is well-represented in the field, and if it were not for the presence of Izaguirre (ostensibly the captain) who is better suited to the final TT, I would probably plump for Intxausti who won a similar stage finish in the Tour of Beijing last year (as Fred well knows).

Instead, I am going to suggest backing our old Katusha friend Giampaolo Caruso. Probably the best puncheur in the field (better than Arredondo even), he has little hope of making up time on his rivals in the TT. If he wants some breathing room, he'll need to win this stage, and take the 10sec time bonus that goes with it. If he can make it to the final ramp as part of (or clear of) the bunch, he should make the podium. He is also one of only two Katusha riders still in the mix (the other being Haller?!?), so there will be no question of team orders. Honestly, I am not certain what condition he is in, but @ 66/1 (BMU), or @ 60/1 (PeePee), I am willing to take a chance. He is currently 22/1 @ Bet364+1, so at least we should be eating value pie before kick-off later today.

Suggest £5 e/w Giampaolo Caruso to win Stage 5: Tour of Poland @ 66/1.

Cheers, wetty

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-of-poland/tour-of-poland-stage-5/winner

PP 66/1 is no good

next is BV at 50-1

Tour Of Poland Stage 5 Giampaolo Caruso (EW) (Stage 5 Winner - Race) Odds: 50/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  322.50 £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3

[TightEnd]

One more suggestion - if fred hasn't put any on with joke orals - they give a £10 in play free bet for £10 staked.  So I suggest £10 EW Justin Rose @ 16-1

ps the top ten bets don't count for the betfair offer

 

Think the £10 comes from a win only bet. Best check.

sorry our posts crossed.

if that could be confirmed, i will take a tenner win as well. if not, we have £10 e/w

[doubleup]

One more suggestion - if fred hasn't put any on with joke orals - they give a £10 in play free bet for £10 staked.  So I suggest £10 EW Justin Rose @ 16-1

Justin Rose16/1Outright - 07/08/2014
Each Way
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£220.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £220.00

could you please prod us when you want the £10 free bet used, and where? risk is we'll miss doing it otherwise as its a busy few days with the DTD festival starting, thanks

ps the top ten bets don't count for the betfair offer

 

thank you. Scott was the first BFSB bet placed and is the eligible bet for the Rory offer

Adz has pointed out that EW bets may not count for this offer    So that will be me off to the ASA again......

I can't get live chat to check.

It isn't a bad bet on its own tho just not as good.  I've put it on as well so should find out if the free bet appears this afternoon.

[BigAdz]

One more suggestion - if fred hasn't put any on with joke orals - they give a £10 in play free bet for £10 staked.  So I suggest £10 EW Justin Rose @ 16-1

Justin Rose16/1Outright - 07/08/2014
Each Way
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£220.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £220.00

could you please prod us when you want the £10 free bet used, and where? risk is we'll miss doing it otherwise as its a busy few days with the DTD festival starting, thanks

ps the top ten bets don't count for the betfair offer

 

thank you. Scott was the first BFSB bet placed and is the eligible bet for the Rory offer

Adz has pointed out that EW bets may not count for this offer    So that will be me off to the ASA again......

I can't get live chat to check.

It isn't a bad bet on its own tho just not as good.  I've put it on as well so should find out if the free bet appears this afternoon.

FYI


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[Karabiner]

Karabiner

I was tossing and turning last night thinking what a numpty i would look if Stenson dons his metaphorical viking helmet and wins at valhalla.

happy to place a bet if you would like?

just don't mention he's swedish.

The price that I was suggesting (albeit fairly tongue-in-cheek) at the time was 30/1 but that's all gone now and I'm not really tempted by the 28/1.

He'll probably skoosh in now.

One that I do think is over-priced in the top SA market is Rory Sabbatini @ 14/1 if you can get it, deffo worth £5 EW.