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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16212299 times)
Kmac84
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« Reply #86565 on: September 08, 2014, 07:29:23 AM »

David Low ‏@Heavidor  25m
Rangers face immediate SPFL sanctions if they fail to pay players and coaching staff on time at the end of the month http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/revealed-rangers-face-immediate-spfl-4177789#.VA1An-tm_fk.twitter
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« Reply #86566 on: September 08, 2014, 08:07:59 AM »

David Low ‏@Heavidor  25m
Rangers face immediate SPFL sanctions if they fail to pay players and coaching staff on time at the end of the month http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/revealed-rangers-face-immediate-spfl-4177789#.VA1An-tm_fk.twitter


Worth topping up on Hearts, as doesn't admin equal points deduction?
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doubleup
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« Reply #86567 on: September 08, 2014, 08:48:13 AM »

Jim Furyk managed a 4th in the BMW Championship.  Wasn't the only one mind, but a return is a return

God bless Sergio and his choking talents
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« Reply #86568 on: September 08, 2014, 08:52:51 AM »

Jim Furyk managed a 4th in the BMW Championship.  Wasn't the only one mind, but a return is a return

God bless Sergio and his choking talents


Meh, not so much....but then I have also been top exponent of the Serge is a bottler mantra, so I should have followed my own advice etc.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #86569 on: September 08, 2014, 09:51:16 AM »

Daily Report

Loss on Month £82.51

Outstanding Bets £4440.15

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29


There were a lot of successes yesterday, but some horror stories spoilt the result

Winners were plentiful

- Lewandoski 2 goals for Poland in their victory over Gibraltar +£29

 Click to see full-size image.


- Hojbjerg anytime scorer for Denmark against Armenia, net profit of £30



- Furyk a 4 way dead heat for 4th in the BMW after a final round of 66, quarter stakes each way return +£7.50

- Jimmy Graham overs receiving yards Saints +£22

 Click to see full-size image.


- Kvyat top in his group at the Italian grand prix +£4

losers

- The Cowboys/49ers game was like watching a car crash in slow motion. 31 points at half time needing 49, unfortunately the score was so one sided the 49ers didn't need to do much more to win. It ended up with 45 points, with the Cowboys failing to score twice from within the 5. One of those ones I still think was a great bet, which doesn't make much sense but anyway -£100

 Click to see full-size image.


- Frank Gore rushed 16 times for 66 yards. -£25. His understudy the very talented Carlos Hyde took another 7 carries for another 50 yards. Which was tremendous news. He doesn't get the ball in a closer game, so them's the breaks

- London Welsh lost a very close game 52-0 to Exeter, conceding seven tries to, funnily enough, nil -£20



- Italian GP
a) Rosberg cracked under the pressure, went off in the lead, finished second -£5

 Click to see full-size image.


b) Alonso out with a dodgy water pump -£5
c) Button top six -£5
d) Vergne in his group -£13. That really was a bad one. Through a mixture of brilliance and luck Kvyat survived brake failure, going off with two laps to go and recovering to still finish ahead of his team mate. Kvyat is just going off extreme right. How he failed to crash....

 Click to see full-size image.


so, overall  a loss of £82.

ongoing positions

I think I am going to need to get up earlier on Monday mornings. Here goes

- Hamilton now 22 points behind Rosberg with 6 races to go. Interestingly Hamilton went odds on after yesterday's race

 Click to see full-size image.


- In the basketball Lithuania edged out the Tall Blacks 76-71 to reach the last 8 where they play Turkey today. The USA play Slovenia

 Click to see full-size image.


- In baseball a good night

The Orioles beat the Rays 7-5 in extra innings. Nelson Cruz, the leading home run hitter in the MLB this year, smacked the two run homer to win it, and also accounted for all 7 of the Orioles RBI's in the match

 Click to see full-size image.


In NYC, the Royals beat the Yankees 2-0

 Click to see full-size image.


so in the AL East the Orioles lead is back up to 9.5 games

in the AL Central, with the Tigers winning last night, the Royals remain 2 games ahead

20 games of the regular season to go. (the Yankees need to win 14 of 19 to sink us in that bet)

A £800 P and L swing from these winning to none winning, hence my focus on these!

We have a series of NFLseason bets. My major challenge here is going to be brevity, one which I am likely to fail

Team bets - Eagles came from 17 points down to beat the Jags 34-17.

The Steelers held on from 20 points up to beat the Browns 30-27.

The precarious life of an NFL punter. try to tackle a returner?

 Click to see full-size image.


Player bets

We have 16-1 e/w on Matt Ryan most receving yards. He threw for a career high 448 yards last night, a great start

 Click to see full-size image.


Rookie of the year bets Brandin Cooks (77 yards, one touchdown) and Kelvin Benjamin (92 yards, one touchdown) looked fantastic in their career openers

one talking head opined "Brandin Cooks is going to annihilate 2,000 all-purpose yards this year." yum, yum, yum. he'll win OROY if he does  

 Click to see full-size image.


LeSean McCoy 115 all-purpose yards for the Eagles, a decent start

Disappointments? The Rams division bet looked a bit ropey as soon as the starting QB went down a few weeks ago, might save myself from reporting on that every week

Jamaal Charles had a quiet night for the Chiefs, who could have a tough season

The Chargers play tonight on MNF




  

 
« Last Edit: September 08, 2014, 09:55:15 AM by TightEnd » Logged

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typhoon13
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« Reply #86570 on: September 08, 2014, 10:07:28 AM »


Stunning report Richard

Reporting don't get any better than that
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tikay
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« Reply #86571 on: September 08, 2014, 10:09:33 AM »

20 games of the regular season to go. (the Yankees need to win 14 of 19 to sink us in that bet)

Thats almost impossible, right?

Another grand Monday morning Report. Even poor old London Welsh felt the wrath of Tighty..........
« Last Edit: September 08, 2014, 10:12:54 AM by tikay » Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
TightEnd
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« Reply #86572 on: September 08, 2014, 10:11:49 AM »

20 games of the regular season to go. (the Yankees need to win 14 of 19 to sink us in that bet)

Thats almost impossible, right?

Another grand Monday morning Report. Even poor old London Welsh felt the wrath of Tighty..........

highly unlikely.

the best run this season from any team was the Royals winning 21 of 26 after the all-star break, but that is the only example of that sort of streak this year, over more than 10 games 
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Waz1892
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« Reply #86573 on: September 08, 2014, 10:11:58 AM »

Interesting fact i heard this morning -

Ibrahamivic scored for Sweden in the 24th minute in his 99th cap hitting his 50th goal.

Why was this significant for his whole career?
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« Reply #86574 on: September 08, 2014, 10:12:41 AM »

Interesting fact i heard this morning -

Ibrahamivic scored for Sweden in the 24th minute in his 99th cap hitting his 50th goal.

Why was this significant for his whole career?

scored in every minute of a game
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TightEnd
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« Reply #86575 on: September 08, 2014, 10:13:47 AM »

Vuelta 2014: KOM
« Sent to: TightEnd on: Today at 03:52:24 AM »
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Good evening, Tighty

I've spent at least two hours tonight looking at the contenders for the win in today's Stage 16 of the Vuelta d'Espana. Good thing the football is on telly. I've struggled to come up with anything solid ... everytime I see a positive about a cyclist, it is quickly ruled out by a negative. However, there is a banzai bet that I'm rather fond of, which at 400/1 would make up for me passing up on a 350/1 shot (Daniel Navarro) earlier in the week (because I didn't like the fact that it was win only ... doh!  aftertiming). It's possible that I'm tilting, but I assure you that all my rubbish bets have been placed in the last few days. This one is a sleeper:

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/king-of-the-mountains

In the King of the Mountains classification, Alejandro Valverde currently leads on 28 points. The rest of the top ten looks like this:
1   Alejandro VALVERDE BELMONTE           Spain    Movistar Team      28
2   Luis Leon SANCHEZ GIL         Spain   Caja Rural - Seguros RGA   26
3   Przemyslaw NIEMIEC                 Poland   Lampre - Merida      20
4   Luis Guillermo MAS BONET              Spain   Caja Rural - Seguros RGA   20
5   Winner ANACONA                 Colombia   Lampre - Merida           18
6   Ryder HESJEDAL                         Canada   Garmin - Sharp      16
7   Jérôme COUSIN                         France   Team Europcar      13
8   Alberto CONTADOR VELASCO      Spain     Tinkoff - Saxo      13
9   Fabio ARU                            Italy           Astana Pro Team   12
10   Joaquim RODRIGUEZ OLIVER      Spain   Team Katusha         12

As you can see, things are a little bunched up in the KOM. There are a few things to note, though:
1.   Caja Rural-Seguros RGA are well-represented in the top 30 with no fewer than 4 riders (Sanchez (7/4 fav), Mas Bonet, Txurruka (12/1) and Pello Bilbao), but it's impossible to know who's going to get the call. In the end, it can only be one of them. Scratch the rest then!
2.   Anacona is an excellent climber, but he is within striking distance of a podium place (13th, 7:41), and may not be given enough rope to escape in a breakaway, given his threat to a team's hope for a top 10 GC.
3.   Hesjedal (13/2) and Niemiec (11/1) are excellent climbers, but they have won the last two stages between them. I'm guessing (hoping!) that that's job done for them. Or that they'll struggle from tired legs in tomorrow's crucial stage.
4.   Valverde (9/2), Contador (13/1), Aru (28/1) and Rodriguez (18/1) are too busy fighting for the overall to worry about a blue polka-dot jersey ... so that's leaves Cousin (unquoted). How the hell did he get in there?
5.   The last five winners of the Vuelta KOM have been: (2013) Edet (Cofidis) (46 pts); (2012) Clarke (Orica-GreenEdge) (63); (2011) Moncoutie (Cofidis) (63); (2010) Moncoutie (Cofidis) (51); (2009) Moncoutie (Cofidis) (186? - must have been different points system). So Cofidis look pretty good at this KOM thing. Who's a threat for them? Well there's Navarro (200/1) (grrr!), Mate, Le Mevel and Coppel (all with zero points). I'm going to discount Navarro for the same reasons as Anacona above. The rest? Meh. Also, you can see that it doesn't take a whole lot of points to win this thing, so it's still anyone's game.

This is the profile for tomorrow's stage. Crucially, there are 45 points up for grabs. Given that I'm backing one of the GC contenders to pick up the last 10 points, that makes a realistic 35. Plenty then:

 Click to see full-size image.


Now this is the profile of Stage 14 in the 2012 Vuelta, where Simon Clarke made the 15-rider breakaway and scooped up a bundle of points before going on to win:

 Click to see full-size image.



Looks similar, doesn't it? Simon Clarke is actually riding this year, but it's not him that I fancy to win the King of the Mountains. It's his team-mate Adam Yates (3 pts) that I like ... not in that way!

There are a number of interesting reasons for picking Yates:
1.   Orica-GreenEdge's (OGE) sports director Neil Stephens (also in 2012!) has today decided to withdraw Esteban Chaves from the GC race. Apparently he is tired, this being his first grand tour. That's fine by me, as it frees up Yates to attack the peloton, rather than serving as a domestique. This is the crucial factor, in my opinion. Yates has been severely restricted by the presence of Chaves in the race, and he has now effectively been given a green light.
2.   Yate's team-mate Daryl Impey won the overall in the Tour of Alberta yesterday. This will give OGE a big lift, and might spur Yates on to prove himself.
3.   Stephens has been urging Yates to save himself for the later stages of the Vuelta, as he was concerned that he was giving too much too early on in the race.
4.   Yates is 400/1 to win the KOM. That's enough reason for me. Conversely, he is 50/1 to win Stage 16, but in my opinion, if he did this, he would have to do so from a breakaway, ostensibly scooping up many of the KOM points on offer in the process. I like 400/1 a lot more than I like 50/1 (especially when it is my belief that the peloton will keep any breakaway on a tight leash ... bonus seconds are becoming crucial).
5.   When Simon Clarke took over the lead of the KOM in 2012, he took the jersey from Alejandro Valverde. Serendipity.
6.   Adam Yates can climb. Really well. Better than Clarke (which is why I'm picking him). I'm not going to rattle off all of his palmares. It would take a while.
7.    These are a few recent quotes from Adam Yates:
“A few of our guys were trying to go with the move. Adam (Yates) and Simon Clarke tried a few times and Cameron ended up picking the right move which was great." (Neil Stephens after Stage 15)
“My job today was to try to get into the early break that went, the trouble was was that everyone else was trying to get in the break too and I didn’t make it. From that point on I was to help out and then sit up, take it easy and ride up the climb to the finish, that was my day done.” (after Stage 11)
“I will look to get a stage win if I can. There are a few stages that I could potentially do well on, like stage six, which is just under 5km long and suits me down to the ground. Obviously, there are some big guys here, so I know very well that it won’t be easy, but I will see what I can do. A breakaway could well be my best chance. If a break of 12 or 15 guys goes away and the GC guys are happy to let them fight it out for the win, hopefully I can be in a move like that and be one of the best climbers."

I therefore recommend £5 e/w Adam Yates to win the King of the Mountains classification @ 400/1. Baaannnnzzzzaaaaaiiiii...... Hope he makes the bloody breakaway at least.

Cheers,
cheapwetsuit




08 Sep 2014 - Vuelta Espana 2014 - King Of The Mountains - King Of The Mountains

Adam Yates @ 400/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3

Stake : £10.00 (£5.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
2510.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001094
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« Reply #86576 on: September 08, 2014, 10:36:33 AM »


Stunning report Richard

Reporting don't get any better than that



Echo this.  Especially as I had written Jimmy Graham receiving yards down as a loser......last I saw he had 17 yards with not long to go.
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« Reply #86577 on: September 08, 2014, 10:38:53 AM »

See that Vetokele won Championship player of the month, while another friend of Fred - Mr Kenny Jackett took the manager award.
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« Reply #86578 on: September 08, 2014, 10:40:21 AM »


Stunning report Richard

Reporting don't get any better than that



Echo this.  Especially as I had written Jimmy Graham receiving yards down as a loser......last I saw he had 17 yards with not long to go.

He had over 65 yarda after three quarters, and got the final yards on the final drive of normal time

He was double covered all game. In part this was what made Brandin Cooks a menace, single covered on deep routes, he made hay


On a general theme, post week one is National jumping to conclusions day but I would be on Dallas, Saints, Jags etc next week. Decent stats, costly mistakes and if they are ironed out they (not the saints, but the other two) will be contrarian picks from here
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« Reply #86579 on: September 08, 2014, 10:41:35 AM »

That price didn't last long Cheapwetsuit. Ty for the tip.
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