Vuelta 2014: KOM
« Sent to: TightEnd on: Today at 03:52:24 AM »
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Good evening, Tighty
I've spent at least two hours tonight looking at the contenders for the win in today's Stage 16 of the Vuelta d'Espana. Good thing the football is on telly. I've struggled to come up with anything solid ... everytime I see a positive about a cyclist, it is quickly ruled out by a negative. However, there is a banzai bet that I'm rather fond of, which at 400/1 would make up for me passing up on a 350/1 shot (Daniel Navarro) earlier in the week (because I didn't like the fact that it was win only ... doh! aftertiming). It's possible that I'm tilting, but I assure you that all my rubbish bets have been placed in the last few days. This one is a sleeper:
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/king-of-the-mountainsIn the King of the Mountains classification, Alejandro Valverde currently leads on 28 points. The rest of the top ten looks like this:
1 Alejandro VALVERDE BELMONTE Spain Movistar Team 28
2 Luis Leon SANCHEZ GIL Spain Caja Rural - Seguros RGA 26
3 Przemyslaw NIEMIEC Poland Lampre - Merida 20
4 Luis Guillermo MAS BONET Spain Caja Rural - Seguros RGA 20
5 Winner ANACONA Colombia Lampre - Merida 18
6 Ryder HESJEDAL Canada Garmin - Sharp 16
7 Jérôme COUSIN France Team Europcar 13
8 Alberto CONTADOR VELASCO Spain Tinkoff - Saxo 13
9 Fabio ARU Italy Astana Pro Team 12
10 Joaquim RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Spain Team Katusha 12
As you can see, things are a little bunched up in the KOM. There are a few things to note, though:
1. Caja Rural-Seguros RGA are well-represented in the top 30 with no fewer than 4 riders (Sanchez (7/4 fav), Mas Bonet, Txurruka (12/1) and Pello Bilbao), but it's impossible to know who's going to get the call. In the end, it can only be one of them. Scratch the rest then!
2. Anacona is an excellent climber, but he is within striking distance of a podium place (13th, 7:41), and may not be given enough rope to escape in a breakaway, given his threat to a team's hope for a top 10 GC.
3. Hesjedal (13/2) and Niemiec (11/1) are excellent climbers, but they have won the last two stages between them. I'm guessing (hoping!) that that's job done for them. Or that they'll struggle from tired legs in tomorrow's crucial stage.
4. Valverde (9/2), Contador (13/1), Aru (28/1) and Rodriguez (18/1) are too busy fighting for the overall to worry about a blue polka-dot jersey ... so that's leaves Cousin (unquoted). How the hell did he get in there?
5. The last five winners of the Vuelta KOM have been: (2013) Edet (Cofidis) (46 pts); (2012) Clarke (Orica-GreenEdge) (63); (2011) Moncoutie (Cofidis) (63); (2010) Moncoutie (Cofidis) (51); (2009) Moncoutie (Cofidis) (186? - must have been different points system). So Cofidis look pretty good at this KOM thing. Who's a threat for them? Well there's Navarro (200/1) (grrr!), Mate, Le Mevel and Coppel (all with zero points). I'm going to discount Navarro for the same reasons as Anacona above. The rest? Meh. Also, you can see that it doesn't take a whole lot of points to win this thing, so it's still anyone's game.
This is the profile for tomorrow's stage. Crucially, there are 45 points up for grabs. Given that I'm backing one of the GC contenders to pick up the last 10 points, that makes a realistic 35. Plenty then:
Click to see full-size image. |

Now this is the profile of Stage 14 in the 2012 Vuelta, where Simon Clarke made the 15-rider breakaway and scooped up a bundle of points before going on to win:
Click to see full-size image. |

Looks similar, doesn't it? Simon Clarke is actually riding this year, but it's not him that I fancy to win the King of the Mountains. It's his team-mate Adam Yates (3 pts) that I like ... not in that way!
There are a number of interesting reasons for picking Yates:
1. Orica-GreenEdge's (OGE) sports director Neil Stephens (also in 2012!) has today decided to withdraw Esteban Chaves from the GC race. Apparently he is tired, this being his first grand tour. That's fine by me, as it frees up Yates to attack the peloton, rather than serving as a domestique. This is the crucial factor, in my opinion. Yates has been severely restricted by the presence of Chaves in the race, and he has now effectively been given a green light.
2. Yate's team-mate Daryl Impey won the overall in the Tour of Alberta yesterday. This will give OGE a big lift, and might spur Yates on to prove himself.
3. Stephens has been urging Yates to save himself for the later stages of the Vuelta, as he was concerned that he was giving too much too early on in the race.
4. Yates is 400/1 to win the KOM. That's enough reason for me. Conversely, he is 50/1 to win Stage 16, but in my opinion, if he did this, he would have to do so from a breakaway, ostensibly scooping up many of the KOM points on offer in the process. I like 400/1 a lot more than I like 50/1 (especially when it is my belief that the peloton will keep any breakaway on a tight leash ... bonus seconds are becoming crucial).
5. When Simon Clarke took over the lead of the KOM in 2012, he took the jersey from Alejandro Valverde. Serendipity.
6. Adam Yates can climb. Really well. Better than Clarke (which is why I'm picking him). I'm not going to rattle off all of his palmares. It would take a while.
7. These are a few recent quotes from Adam Yates:
“A few of our guys were trying to go with the move. Adam (Yates) and Simon Clarke tried a few times and Cameron ended up picking the right move which was great." (Neil Stephens after Stage 15)
“My job today was to try to get into the early break that went, the trouble was was that everyone else was trying to get in the break too and I didn’t make it. From that point on I was to help out and then sit up, take it easy and ride up the climb to the finish, that was my day done.” (after Stage 11)
“I will look to get a stage win if I can. There are a few stages that I could potentially do well on, like stage six, which is just under 5km long and suits me down to the ground. Obviously, there are some big guys here, so I know very well that it won’t be easy, but I will see what I can do. A breakaway could well be my best chance. If a break of 12 or 15 guys goes away and the GC guys are happy to let them fight it out for the win, hopefully I can be in a move like that and be one of the best climbers."
I therefore recommend £5 e/w Adam Yates to win the King of the Mountains classification @ 400/1. Baaannnnzzzzaaaaaiiiii...... Hope he makes the bloody breakaway at least.
Cheers,
cheapwetsuit
08 Sep 2014 - Vuelta Espana 2014 - King Of The Mountains - King Of The Mountains
Adam Yates @ 400/1 EW @ 1/4 1-3
Stake : £10.00 (£5.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
2510.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001094