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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16575801 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #89910 on: November 01, 2014, 01:32:22 PM »

Having put some stats up on RT, one that fits the bill that also may resonate with TFT regs.

7.43. 7/8 runnings were won by 3 or 4 year olds. This leaves 4 qualifiers. Of those I really like Secret Gesture.

It looks like her season may have been geared up for this, with a very light campaign and nothing that has previously looked like a primary target.

The great news is she finally has Frank Spencer off her back and has Irish Champion Jockey Pat Smullen on board. She is well drawn in the middle, and normally displays enough early speed to hold a decent early position, that has looked a prerequisite so far.

Ralph has been making some positive noises.

10-1 looks nice. Ew of course.


there are three recommendations in the 7.43

Secret Gesture
Neil =  Stephanie's Kitten
Doobs = Just a judge

all e/w, 11 runners paying top 3

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/santa-anita/19:43/winner

i suppose as it looks to be a decent e/w race i could do all three?
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« Reply #89911 on: November 01, 2014, 01:33:42 PM »

I should have put Cheesy after my comment admittedly, however, what would make e-sport qualify as a sport?

I should also have put an Cheesy after my comment. A surfeit of red wine dulled my wit, sadly.

With regard to the definition of a "sport" then, with the exception of wheelchair sports, I believe that there is a requirement for the activity to be one that cannot be played whilst sitting down and drinking a beer. That would rule out any playing of video games in my view.

With regard to the spreadsheet, any activity that has enough individual bets would qualify as a "sport" but I'm not intending to retrospectively apply any changes for bets which have previously been attributed to "Misc.".

I hope that helps. Smiley

Haha, I saw this last night and the lack of smileys made it much funnier.
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tikay
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« Reply #89912 on: November 01, 2014, 01:36:57 PM »

Just been looking over the F1 markets for this weekend and there is almost no value out there - unusually, I would say the bookies have got their prices right so far.

However, I still do have one suggestion:

Lotus to be 1st Team to Retire @ 7/2 with Sky Bet. Recommend a min bet. Is somewhat a stab in the dark if we see contact on the opening lap - however, if it's a clean start, then this has a better than 7/2 chance of coming in due to the lack of Marussia and Caterham this weekend.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/johnny-herberts-charity-tips

Will have another look after qualifying Smiley

Are they definitely going to start?

Good point, they are talking about a protest I believe.

If they upset poor Bernie, they'll be summoned to the Bernie Bus, which is right outside the 'fing room.......


 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #89913 on: November 01, 2014, 01:39:29 PM »

i think it is an absolutely vintage NFL Punting weekend

opening it out for discussion

oakland +15, st louis +10 and Jags +11 are all backable, the stats are sensational on oakland and st louis as double digit dogs in these spots....don't think Jets +10 is a bet and is the odd one out of the 4 big underdogs

in player props Hillman o75 yards v Denver and Hill o75 yards v Jacksonville both could be far too low on likely game flow

Arizona +3 at Dallas is going to be a bet too, whether Romo plays or not
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« Reply #89914 on: November 01, 2014, 01:39:44 PM »

Having put some stats up on RT, one that fits the bill that also may resonate with TFT regs.

7.43. 7/8 runnings were won by 3 or 4 year olds. This leaves 4 qualifiers. Of those I really like Secret Gesture.

It looks like her season may have been geared up for this, with a very light campaign and nothing that has previously looked like a primary target.

The great news is she finally has Frank Spencer off her back and has Irish Champion Jockey Pat Smullen on board. She is well drawn in the middle, and normally displays enough early speed to hold a decent early position, that has looked a prerequisite so far.

Ralph has been making some positive noises.

10-1 looks nice. Ew of course.


there are three recommendations in the 7.43

Secret Gesture
Neil =  Stephanie's Kitten
Doobs = Just a judge

all e/w, 11 runners paying top 3

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/santa-anita/19:43/winner

i suppose as it looks to be a decent e/w race i could do all three?

Best ask the Maths boys, but if I have read all the advice correctly, yes, we can't have a bad bet here.

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« Reply #89915 on: November 01, 2014, 01:41:05 PM »

i think it is an absolutely vintage NFL Punting weekend

opening it out for discussion

oakland +15, st louis +10 and Jags +11 are all backable, the stats are sensational on oakland and st louis as double digit dogs in these spots....don't think Jets +10 is a bet and is the odd one out of the 4 big underdogs

in player props Hillman o75 yards v Denver and Hill o75 yards v Jacksonville both could be far too low on likely game flow

Arizona +3 at Dallas is going to be a bet too, whether Romo plays or not

If you get no negative feedback Rich, load up please, let's have some Sunday night NFL fun.
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« Reply #89916 on: November 01, 2014, 01:48:51 PM »

Having put some stats up on RT, one that fits the bill that also may resonate with TFT regs.

7.43. 7/8 runnings were won by 3 or 4 year olds. This leaves 4 qualifiers. Of those I really like Secret Gesture.

It looks like her season may have been geared up for this, with a very light campaign and nothing that has previously looked like a primary target.

The great news is she finally has Frank Spencer off her back and has Irish Champion Jockey Pat Smullen on board. She is well drawn in the middle, and normally displays enough early speed to hold a decent early position, that has looked a prerequisite so far.

Ralph has been making some positive noises.

10-1 looks nice. Ew of course.


there are three recommendations in the 7.43

Secret Gesture
Neil =  Stephanie's Kitten
Doobs = Just a judge

all e/w, 11 runners paying top 3

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/santa-anita/19:43/winner

i suppose as it looks to be a decent e/w race i could do all three?

Best ask the Maths boys, but if I have read all the advice correctly, yes, we can't have a bad bet here.



That is probably true.  The favourite is short and no great shakes.  You are also beating betfair on both place and win on just the judge.  Coral matching Ladbrokes now, all a bit nuts. 

Think you should just do all 3, maybe more on Neil's.
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« Reply #89917 on: November 01, 2014, 01:54:43 PM »

While you were posting that, i was getting on

all three prices beat Betfair

all e/w 1/4 1,2,3

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/santa-anita/19:43/winner

clearly the key is getting the 5/2 favourite dank, who has been off since royal ascot, beat

neil wrote this morning

" I don't think I'd run to back her at 5/1 so at 2/1 I think you'd have to be insane."


william hill. ladbrokes. betfair sportsbook


01 Nov 2014 - 7:43 Santa Anita - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!

Stephanie's Kitten @ 11/2  EW @ 1/4 1-3

Stake : £30.00 (£15.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
133.12
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001122/F

Event Information:    19:43 Santa Anita
2014-11-01 19:43:00
Market:    Race winner
Selection:    Just The Judge @ 10/1
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000768
Placed at:    13:19 01/11/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £15.00
Number of lines:    2
Stake:    £30.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £30.00
   
   
   £217.50


19:43 Santa (US) 1st Nov BOG

    10/1
    £217.50
    5. Secret Gesture
    £15 EW

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000104



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« Reply #89918 on: November 01, 2014, 02:00:08 PM »

I am a big fan of Tarquin Du seuil.  He ran bad first time out but a lot of jumps horses need their first run.  He is best 9/2 in the 3.15 with Hills.  Think that is a better home for the hills mobile offer than first time out Silvianico Conti. 
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« Reply #89919 on: November 01, 2014, 02:03:57 PM »

I am a big fan of Tarquin Du seuil.  He ran bad first time out but a lot of jumps horses need their first run.  He is best 9/2 in the 3.15 with Hills.  Think that is a better home for the hills mobile offer than first time out Silvianico Conti. 

Sign of a victory is good enough for a free bet in the 3.00 at ascot. 
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« Reply #89920 on: November 01, 2014, 02:04:59 PM »

Charlie Hall Chase

Wetherby tomorrow

11/10 Silviniaco Conti
7/2 Taquin Du Seuil
 6 Menorah
10 The Giant Bolster, Medermit
14 Double Ross
18 Wayward Prince
66 Ballypatrick

some books pay 3 places e/w

its early season, some will be fitter than others and (this may or may not be correct, but i've read it somewhere i can't remember where which is helpful) Nicholls is in a bit of a transitional phase, talking having a tough season etc

can we find something to beat the favourite here?



7 runners now. Yuk

unfortunately all the comments were edited out by the poster, which is a shame as there was something interesting/negative about Taquin de seuil

which i have forgotten

the recommendation was double ross each way, before it went below 8 runners, and the post was deleted


i note that jonjo o'dodgycoup is on a run of 1 winner in his last 33 runs, and there are question marks being rased about stable form
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« Reply #89921 on: November 01, 2014, 02:11:21 PM »

Having put some stats up on RT, one that fits the bill that also may resonate with TFT regs.

7.43. 7/8 runnings were won by 3 or 4 year olds. This leaves 4 qualifiers. Of those I really like Secret Gesture.

It looks like her season may have been geared up for this, with a very light campaign and nothing that has previously looked like a primary target.

The great news is she finally has Frank Spencer off her back and has Irish Champion Jockey Pat Smullen on board. She is well drawn in the middle, and normally displays enough early speed to hold a decent early position, that has looked a prerequisite so far.

Ralph has been making some positive noises.

10-1 looks nice. Ew of course.


there are three recommendations in the 7.43

Secret Gesture
Neil =  Stephanie's Kitten
Doobs = Just a judge

all e/w, 11 runners paying top 3

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/santa-anita/19:43/winner

i suppose as it looks to be a decent e/w race i could do all three?

Best ask the Maths boys, but if I have read all the advice correctly, yes, we can't have a bad bet here.



That is probably true.  The favourite is short and no great shakes.  You are also beating betfair on both place and win on just the judge.  Coral matching Ladbrokes now, all a bit nuts. 

Think you should just do all 3, maybe more on Neil's.


I let the "great Jaimie Spencer" comment go, as I wasn't sure if you were being ironic........if you weren't, you in a decreasing minority that holds that opinion, but to say Dank is "no great shakes" is rather silly. Her chance as favourite, may well be over estimated but if I had a horse that had won me a BC race and £1.4million quid, I would be quite happy to buy a few more.
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« Reply #89922 on: November 01, 2014, 02:21:46 PM »

Gio Bernard is def out against the jags so like the Jeremy Hill overs unless Peerman gets a load more work.
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« Reply #89923 on: November 01, 2014, 02:25:28 PM »

Just been looking over the F1 markets for this weekend and there is almost no value out there - unusually, I would say the bookies have got their prices right so far.

However, I still do have one suggestion:

Lotus to be 1st Team to Retire @ 7/2 with Sky Bet. Recommend a min bet. Is somewhat a stab in the dark if we see contact on the opening lap - however, if it's a clean start, then this has a better than 7/2 chance of coming in due to the lack of Marussia and Caterham this weekend.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/johnny-herberts-charity-tips

Will have another look after qualifying Smiley

Are they definitely going to start?

There's a very small chance of any boycott this weekend given that they have already taken part in practice sessions. Next weekend however, it becomes a much bigger possibility.

Wouldn't the bet be voided if they didn't take part though?
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« Reply #89924 on: November 01, 2014, 02:26:49 PM »

Gio Bernard is def out against the jags so like the Jeremy Hill overs unless Peerman gets a load more work.

Bernard being out is already in prices. It was more Jacksonville against the run that made it look more attractive
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