Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Having put some stats up on RT, one that fits the bill that also may resonate with TFT regs.

7.43. 7/8 runnings were won by 3 or 4 year olds. This leaves 4 qualifiers. Of those I really like Secret Gesture.

It looks like her season may have been geared up for this, with a very light campaign and nothing that has previously looked like a primary target.

The great news is she finally has Frank Spencer off her back and has Irish Champion Jockey Pat Smullen on board. She is well drawn in the middle, and normally displays enough early speed to hold a decent early position, that has looked a prerequisite so far.

Ralph has been making some positive noises.

10-1 looks nice. Ew of course.

there are three recommendations in the 7.43

Secret Gesture
Neil =  Stephanie's Kitten
Doobs = Just a judge

all e/w, 11 runners paying top 3

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/santa-anita/19:43/winner

i suppose as it looks to be a decent e/w race i could do all three?

Best ask the Maths boys, but if I have read all the advice correctly, yes, we can't have a bad bet here.

That is probably true.  The favourite is short and no great shakes.  You are also beating betfair on both place and win on just the judge.  Coral matching Ladbrokes now, all a bit nuts. 

Think you should just do all 3, maybe more on Neil's.

I let the "great Jaimie Spencer" comment go, as I wasn't sure if you were being ironic........if you weren't, you in a decreasing minority that holds that opinion, but to say Dank is "no great shakes" is rather silly. Her chance as favourite, may well be over estimated but if I had a horse that had won me a BC race and £1.4million quid, I would be quite happy to buy a few more.

It has won one grade/group 1 and been beaten well enough in 2 others and a few lesser races.  It isn't priced like that.  It is no great shakes for the race it is running in.  And the race it is running in is the one we are discussing.

I'd obviously love it if it were mine.  

[BigAdz]

Clearly you know best Doobs.

[Tal]

Gio Bernard is def out against the jags so like the Jeremy Hill overs unless Peerman gets a load more work.

Bernard being out is already in prices. It was more Jacksonville against the run that made it look more attractive

Number 19 red zone offence against the number 1 red zone defense. Seems made for a spread spot.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Gio Bernard is def out against the jags so like the Jeremy Hill overs unless Peerman gets a load more work.

Bernard being out is already in prices. It was more Jacksonville against the run that made it look more attractive

All the comments from Cincy this week have emphasised the run game and with Bodine improving think the Hill overs is good.

[Doobs]

Clearly you know best Doobs.

Don't know what your issue is today, but you also think it is too short and have opposed it.  So not sure what the argument is about.  The horse doesn't seem much different in class to Just The Judge and is quarter the price.  I'd happily describe Just The Judge as no great shakes for a group 1 winner too, despite her wining two, and I would be happily opposing it if it was 5/2.  

[Tal]

When was the last time a team in the bottom half beat Spurs, City and Liverpool in a week?

Pardew for England! 

[BigAdz]

Clearly you know best Doobs.

Don't know what your issue is today, but you also think it is too short and have opposed it.  So not sure what the argument is about.  The horse doesn't seem much different in class to Just The Judge and is quarter the price.  I'd happily describe Just The Judge as no great shakes for a group 1 winner too, despite her wining two, and I would be happily opposing it if it was 5/2.  

LOL, what my issue today.....

I just dislike it when people who should no better just write off Group 1 winners as "no great shakes". A total lack of respect.

Each to their own.

[Tal]

Over/under on number of pundits who'll be saying:

"I've always said, you know, they just needed to give him time. He's a great bloke and a really talented manager. I'm delighted, you know, to see him turn it around."

All of them?

Maybe not Phil Thompson.

[Doobs]

I am a big fan of Tarquin Du seuil.  He ran bad first time out but a lot of jumps horses need their first run.  He is best 9/2 in the 3.15 with Hills.  Think that is a better home for the hills mobile offer than first time out Silvianico Conti. 

Sign of a victory is good enough for a free bet in the 3.00 at ascot. 

We didn't back this?

[Tal]

Bleugh.

Shame only seven ran.

[BigAdz]

Bleugh.

Shame only seven ran.

My fault, I should have stuck it up when I did it on Weds. Were 8 then, so I got paid, but hence the delete, when I saw final decs.

Jumped beautifully and once he had fav cooked I fancied our chances. Ho hum.

[TightEnd]

I am a big fan of Tarquin Du seuil.  He ran bad first time out but a lot of jumps horses need their first run.  He is best 9/2 in the 3.15 with Hills.  Think that is a better home for the hills mobile offer than first time out Silvianico Conti. 

P
Sign of a victory is good enough for a free bet in the 3.00 at ascot. 

We didn't back this?

sorrt just missed it, had to get to the football.

[icles test]

Think the great war will improve on dirt, due to its breeding and running style, and because listen im riding because daddy is the trainer isnt on board. 11/1 e/w atm

Pleased to see cavalryman run in melbourne aswell, think it may suit him

[Tal]

Vetokele finds the onion bag

[BigAdz]

Chelsea and Arsenal ahead. Everton playing vs 10 men......come on ffs