Tips for Tikay

[Simon Galloway]

For authenticity, can you do your best to stuff up a couple of bets, (like the wrong price AND the wrong event) sleep through a couple of maximums and green something out that goes on to hose up?

TIA

[MereNovice]

For authenticity, can you do your best to stuff up a couple of bets, (like the wrong price AND the wrong event) sleep through a couple of maximums and green something out that goes on to hose up?

TIA

I'm a stickler for authenticity.
There's every chance of me collecting the set. The bookies have suspended betting on "sleep through a couple of maximums".

[smashedagain]

"I'm in charge" as Bruce Forsyth used to say.

As announced I will be looking after Fred while tikay is enjoying his sojourn in Las Vegas.
I feel fairly well equipped to fulfil this role because, although I am not as old as tikay (or anywhere near), I am equally grumpy so it should be a smooth transition.
By nature I am a cautious man and I will only be making minimum bets unless there are exceptional circumstances

I think that this might be a good time to remember the words of the founding fathers when considering our tips. When making a tip please “make a post with a cogent argument as to why the bet should be made”.

Personally, as a nerd, I love to see statistical justification for bets but other sound reasoning is equally valid. Please don't post tips just because you are lumping your own money on and you think Fred should too. Also, if you are going to use the line “a friend told me that this was a sure thing” as justification can you please include a full CV for your friend so that we can assess his merit.

Examples of justification for tips might be something like this:
1. It's rained on 9 of the last 10 days in Manchester, therefore I fancy a draw in today's cricket
2. The owner of the dog in trap 5 has just told me that he has substituted a ringer and we should put our mortgages on it
3. During the last match I spotted that the Ukrainian centre back has got an artificial leg so back Rooney to score as I don't think the bookies have spotted this

Please include the odds, recommended amount and bookmaker for each bet.

Fred has placed bets based on tips from 71 different tipsters to date. It would be great to get more people involved.

That's all for now.

Let's make some money.

Damn I like this guy.........

Good Stuff Vince....... a great right up

I have gone into semi retirement whilst god chooses to rule against my 1-10 shots(Russia to qualify from group) and various other selections.

Please wake me up if either Croatia qualify from their group,RVP scores for Holland,Carroll for England ,Germany wins The Euros or Tiger and Watney rise from the dead

Good luck to the thread

Peace x

Thanks.
Don't get dispirited.
Perhaps the key for us is to be more selective.
We need to be more of a sniper and less of a machine-gunner.

Lol your stealing some of my best work. It got one of these the first time round and I had pictures

 

[hector62]

Taken from 3G's blog.

Saturday, June 16th 2012

Quite happy with my position, 4th at 3 strokes from the lead. This course is brutal, I had 2 bad shots and I lost 2 strokes... Do you know that the greens are so firm now that there are no pitchmark anymore! This set up is like that once in 10 years...
+1 today, a lot of opportunities missed, we corrected my putting posture after the round!
4th round with Webb Simpson at 14.40!
The crowd was realy noisy today, so many people around us, not easy too concentrate...




I hope you realise that as far as I am concerned any decision as to when and how much to green out any tip I made is entirely yours, I do not mind in the slightest what you do.

[Laxie]

I feel a bit of mischief coming on...

[MereNovice]

Taken from 3G's blog.

Saturday, June 16th 2012

Quite happy with my position, 4th at 3 strokes from the lead. This course is brutal, I had 2 bad shots and I lost 2 strokes... Do you know that the greens are so firm now that there are no pitchmark anymore! This set up is like that once in 10 years...
+1 today, a lot of opportunities missed, we corrected my putting posture after the round!
4th round with Webb Simpson at 14.40!
The crowd was realy noisy today, so many people around us, not easy too concentrate...




I hope you realise that as far as I am concerned any decision as to when and how much to green out any tip I made is entirely yours, I do not mind in the slightest what you do.

Great stuff and thanks.
If it gets to a stage where we can lock in more than £500 profit with several holes still to play, I'm going to be sorely tempted.
It's great just to be able to discuss the possibility with a £5 bet.

[MereNovice]

I feel a bit of mischief coming on...

Surely not? 

It's like he's gone away and left his man-bag with his wallet in it.

[Karabiner]

Great position in the golf, Colsaerts was really impressive last night and must have a real shot if he doesn't wobble.

If I were in your position I would be sorely tempted to take a couple of hundred out of GGG if he dips below 2/1 and evens or lower would be a mandatory hedging position if you had not done it earlier.

I'm not saying that it's correct, simply what my inclination would be.

[MereNovice]

Great position in the golf, Colsaerts was really impressive last night and must have a real shot if he doesn't wobble.

If I were in your position I would be sorely tempted to take a couple of hundred out of GGG if he dips below 2/1 and evens or lower would be a mandatory hedging position if you had not done it earlier.

I'm not saying that it's correct, simply what my inclination would be.

It would be great to have a dilemma like that.

[horseplayer]

Six group games left and there may be some mileage in the Half Time / Full Time markets.

To back both options of Team A / Team B and also Team B / Team A - you are looking at odds of around 33s and 33s, or 33s and 40s, or 33s and 50s depending on who is playing.


In the Group Stages of the 2008 Euros there were 3.
In the Group Stages of the 2004 Euros there were 4.
In the Group Stages of the 2012 Euros there have been 0.

Due to the nature of these remaining games, I hope to hit one. I've done it in the last couple of games but with no success, although if the cards fall right you can 'make'.

I am not sure what to suggest stakewise for this bet? and you could easily argue that the previous sample size was a bit low? however could be a fun split small stakes bet for the remainder of the group games?

[henrik777]

Just turned on the US Open and first shot I saw was some nobody making a hole in one. Was it last week we were funking against these or this?

Was about 6/4 13/8 and 1/2 for none.

Didn't have any reason to bet either.

Sandy

[henrik777]

Holland v Portugal Corners over 11 Ladbrokes Bluesq 10/11

Hol v Den
11      4

Hol v Ger
6       5


Por v Ger
11     2


Por v Den
6        7



Both teams get a few and concede a few. Holland must win so won't sit back and Portugal will attack if they go behind. Potentially this could be a very high corner count. Bet365 go over 12 @evens and we are getting not much less for an extra corner.

Sandy

[henrik777]

Denmark v Germany

Denmark most corners Paddy 16/5

Stats above. Both conceded 17 but Germany have 7 corners for them in 2 games whereas Denmark have acquired 11 in 2 games.

£50 @ 16/5

Sandy

[jakally]

Holland v Portugal Corners over 11 Ladbrokes Bluesq 10/11

Hol v Den
11      4

Hol v Ger
6       5


Por v Ger
11     2


Por v Den
6        7



Both teams get a few and concede a few. Holland must win so won't sit back and Portugal will attack if they go behind. Potentially this could be a very high corner count. Bet365 go over 12 @evens and we are getting not much less for an extra corner.

Sandy

The Corners work I did last week had these two teams as 'most likely' in the corner count.
Will have a look later, but pretty sure it can't be a bad bet.

[Killerkilsby]

What about portugal more than 4 corners at 5/6 bet victor?