Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

I was actually going to propose Arizona!

Seattle have been forced to rely on Lynch through the middle and Wilson round the outside. This is one of the worst teams to be relying on that against.

Stupid question: why is the line that high?

[hector62]

One for Tighty and Peter27.

In today's GP the most likely scenario I see is Rosberg leading and Hamilton content to stay in 2nd and win the title. Neither of them has an incentive to go for the fastest lap. They are both priced up at around evens but everyone else is 14's or bigger. I have had a dabble on Bottas and Vettel in this market. I will not put up a bet suggestion as I know little of F1 but are my thought processes any good?

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/arizona-cardinals-at-seattle-seahawks/point-spread

you can get Arizona +7.5 at Seattle tonight at 20/21 BetVictor

divisional rivalry

Arizona best record in NFL, Seattle inconsistent

key to stopping Seattle is Marshawn Lynch, and Arizona have one of the best run defenses in the league (for example they are the only team in 10 games this season to restrict DeMarco Murray to under 100 yards rushing)

the Seattle passing game lacks talent, and the Arizona secondary is good too

the arizona defense needs to perform as consistently as usual because Arizona are a bit banged up on offense. Larry Fitz probably won't play. Stanton the back up QB is a drop off from Palmer but in their favour the Seattle defense hugely misses Brandon Mebane who is the main run stopper.

the Seahawks have a home advantage, of course, and its getting to be must win but i would be very surprised to see them win this by more than a score, which they would need to do for +7.5 to lose 


Tal did you have anything for today?

Tighty,

Go ahead if you reckon that is value.

[TightEnd]

One for Tighty and Peter27.

In today's GP the most likely scenario I see is Rosberg leading and Hamilton content to stay in 2nd and win the title. Neither of them has an incentive to go for the fastest lap. They are both priced up at around evens but everyone else is 14's or bigger. I have had a dabble on Bottas and Vettel in this market. I will not put up a bet suggestion as I know little of F1 but are my thought processes any good?

my view would be the thought process is right

the problem is, from experience, who sets the fastest lap is a crapshoot..often depending on who is on new rubber (unexpected late pit stops sometimes) in the final laps when fuel is low

still, at 14-1+ you/we could pick a couple for an interest

[Tal]

One for Tighty and Peter27.

In today's GP the most likely scenario I see is Rosberg leading and Hamilton content to stay in 2nd and win the title. Neither of them has an incentive to go for the fastest lap. They are both priced up at around evens but everyone else is 14's or bigger. I have had a dabble on Bottas and Vettel in this market. I will not put up a bet suggestion as I know little of F1 but are my thought processes any good?

my view would be the thought process is right

the problem is, from experience, who sets the fastest lap is a crapshoot..often depending on who is on new rubber (unexpected late pit stops sometimes) in the final laps when fuel is low

still, at 14-1+ you/we could pick a couple for an interest

There's been an end of term feel to it for most of the drivers this weekend. If the Mercs are 1-2 and coasting, they're not going to be going flat out at the front and chasing purples. There's a few guys who will want to make a point (Alonso, Vettel, Ric, Button, Bottas). It's just a question of whether their cars are quick enough.

This seems like a sensible idea to me and my ice cream eyes.

[horseplayer]

Lads gone 9/1 fgs Sterling for Liverpool fwiw

beats betfair after commision (just)

[arbboy]

I will take on daily NBA updates from Tighty as i read the scores every morning anyway.  Makes more sense and take some of the weight off Tighty's shoulders.

Toronto obviously very impressive rallying from a big deficit in 1st qtr on the road to the Cavs to storm back and win easily.  Knicks won/Nets lost/76ers lost to the Knicks in the same division and are now 0-12 and looking like they could become the worse team in nba history in the same division.  Pretty impossible even at this early stage to see how the Raptors can lose this division as the teams behind them are so poor/overrated.  They will probably only need 40 wins to seal this division, maybe even less.

Spurs beat the Nets easily as well.  They have won 5 straight now and after their tough early set of fixtures should really kick on now in the next month with much easier schedule.  In the same division Houston beat Dallas.  NO also won.

Not much to report on the assist front.  Rondo/Paul both didn't play (both play tonight) and Wall in 3rd had 9 assists in his game last night so no chances to report in the overall standings.

[TightEnd]

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks Arizona Cardinals +7.5 (Point Spread - Match) Odds: 20/21 Stake: 21.00 Possible Return:  41.00

betvictor

[TightEnd]

Lads gone 9/1 fgs Sterling for Liverpool fwiw

beats betfair after commision (just)

is that a recommendation?

is he expected to play further forward with mario and sturridge out?

[arbboy]

Cards are 4/6 to win their division with bf sportsbook and boyles.  Pinnacle have a two way market on will they win yes/no and offer 13/8 they won't win it and go 8/15 they do (2% commission free arb if you can get on with pinny - would rather just take the 2-3% ev with bf betting the 4/6).   Given the views on the cards/seattle game above maybe the 4/6 with bf sportsbook for the div is also worth a £20/£30 tickle.  Looks like some firms are 'giving it away' and greening up going 4/6 Arizona as Seattle must be in numerous divisional acca's ante post at short prices.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/nfc-west/winner

[TightEnd]

the fastest lap market

we start at 1pm, if anyone has names to suggest
 
16/1 bar mercedes if you have working Bet365

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/abu-dhabi-grand-prix/fastest-lap

[horseplayer]

Lads gone 9/1 fgs Sterling for Liverpool fwiw

beats betfair after commision (just)

is that a recommendation?

is he expected to play further forward with mario and sturridge out?

No view at all just mentioning it if anyone was interested

[horseplayer]

the fastest lap market

we start at 1pm, if anyone has names to suggest
 
16/1 bar mercedes if you have working Bet365

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/abu-dhabi-grand-prix/fastest-lap

The sea of blue around the next four in suggests someone else likes the theory

Worth dutching all four?

[TightEnd]

Cards are 4/6 to win their division with bf sportsbook and boyles.  Pinnacle have a two way market on will they win yes/no and offer 13/8 they won't win it and go 8/15 they do (2% commission free arb if you can get on with pinny - would rather just take the 2-3% ev with bf betting the 4/6).   Given the views on the game maybe the 4/6 with bf sportsbook for the div is also worth a £20/£30 tickle.  Looks like some firms are 'giving it away' and greening up going 4/6 Arizona as Seattle must be in numerous divisional acca's ante post at short prices.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/nfc-west/winner

the point against this is that Arizona have to play Seattle twice in the last six games

current standings are

Arizona Cardinals            9    1    
San Francisco 49ers    6    4    
Seattle Seahawks    6    4        

4/6 does look too long, with a three game lead...but the counterpoint of a big swing possible if seattle sweep them and have the tiebreaker over the cardinals

[arbboy]

Just a perfect spot to pick off bad bookmaking firms giving away free ev.  Happy to go with the view Pinny's price is closer to 'correct' than bf/boyles as they trade the markets to small % and don't have a 'lock in/green up' culture.   If their price was 'wrong' it would move from pro cash.

Seattle must be around the 6/4 mark to win both games over the Cards.  If they don't win both the Card's will pretty much be weighed in for the Division.