Tips for Tikay

[nirvana]

Great set of golf bets, damn unlucky not to get some really good scores there. Really enjoyed watching a tournament which challenged the players so much. Man that was tough.

On to the tip for a Spain Germany final

Excellent analysis - hadn't realised they were the 2 best teams in the tournament. On

[MereNovice]

Final scores for the golf:

Pos   Player   Today   Thru   Total
1   W. Simpson   -2   F   +1
T2   M. Thompson   -3   F   +2
T2   G. McDowell   +3   F   +2
T4   D. Toms   -2   F   +3
T4   P. Harrington   -2   F   +3
T4   J. Peterson   E   F   +3
T4   J. Dufner   E   F   +3
T4   J. Furyk   +4   F   +3

Congratulations everyone.

[JaffaCake]

Good news Tikay. Miami won to make it 2-1 in the Finals....but, because of the time difference, you won't get the bad news in the morning, but in the afternoon. Every cloud eh....

[redarmi]

PS - I apologise if I said too much, but I think with a bit of knowledge along the way, think there is value in this bet. Also, please don't quote me, will save us all some scrolling! lol.

What is it that makes you think it is value though?  All i can see is that you have decided is that a bunch of favourites will win their games.  Why do you think that 16/5 is value?  What percentage chance do you make all of the possibilties?  Basically you are betting an acculmulator on Germany beating Greece and then winning their semi along with Spain to win their quarter and then their semi so basically it is a four team accumulator.  Would you bet the fpoour team accumulator at 16/5?

You might make a good point, but still the bet is out there and still representing Germany and Spain if they are to go into Extra Time or even penalties.

I think it still represents something at this point, because as soon as the games in Group C are over, then that bet and a few others will not be as big, so getting 16/5 now seems a half decent bet. After tomorrows outcome I predict the 16/5 to be marketing at around 14/5 or 2/1 maybe. Therefore getting on 16/5 is still value in my book anyway.

With all due respect you are way off.   Saying "I think x will beat y because they are a better team"  is the equivalent of level 1 thinking in poker unfortunately the bookies normally think on level 3 at least and, worse, they have an inbuilt positive expectation you need too overcome.  It is great that you are willing to put a bit of time and thought into your bets but you need to think in terms of chances and probabilities rather than absolutes.

[Horneris]

Portugal v Spain - Portugal very lacklustre up front and Spain so many match winners.

Spain to win

This is good analysis. nahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhht.

The one word I would never ever use to describe Nani and Ronaldo is lacklustre. Helder Posita plays a vital role aswell, he drags defenders away creating space for the two magicians.

I actually think Portugal are the team with the midfield that can stifle Spain. Moutinho, Veloso and Meireles in the 3 man unit are tireless.

[MereNovice]

I think a lot of us can learn something from the Euro2012 finalists debate. I'm sure that I, for one, certainly can.
It's a natural inclination to pick out who the best teams are and then to work out if they are likely to meet before the final.
We then look at a price like 16/5 and think that looks a bargain.

However, when we look at how many different results need to go our way, our perspective can change.
I don't know what the individual odds for each of the matches are likely to be but it might be interesting, and educational, to try to have a guess at these and then work out the combined likelihood of all those events happening.
I have a feeling that it might be quite an eye-opener.

tikay often states that he doesn't back accumulators and the finalists bet is, effectively, an accumulator.
Let's see if we can work out if there is a good reason for his general reluctance in this case.

[aaron1867]

I am very happy with the responses, but my oveerall aim is to say that perhaps 16/5 is the biggest price you are going to get.

I don't really agree it's level one thinking though, can see why you think it, but don't agree. People say of course they are favourites to get to final, they are the two best teams, but the reality is that there is a possiblity that some bets are impossible, as the route to the final of some teams is that A team will meet B team in QF or SF, rather than the final.

As for Portugal, I am sorry, but they are just don't have that flair for me. They have played the group games and won by one in every game and conceeded in every game and I don't think Postiga is all that. The Spain v Portugal game will 4-5-1 v 4-5-1 and let's remember Spain have a lot better striking options and a midfield players like Fabregas, Silva, Alonso and a few more. Portugal are too reliant on one player, who still doesn't sparkle at national level.

I think £50 on 16/5
£10 on 10's
£10 on 13's

Also, if you bet on these matches as accs, you are not getting much better really.

[MereNovice]

In the baseball, Red Sox 7 Cubs 4.
The streak is broken!

[redarmi]

Well lets have a go at working it out:

Firstly, Spain are not actually through yet so if we assume that they are roughly 1.10 to go through (which is in line with the market at the moment).  Then Germany will be roughly true 1.18 chances to get through against Greece.  If Spain play England I would imagine they will be about 1.50 to go through.  Onto the semis we have Germany playing France and I would estimate they would be true 1.72 shots to beat them and the Spain would play Portugal and are probably true 1.66 shots.  So we have 1.10*1.18*1.50*1.72*1.66 which equals 5.55 or a shade over 9/2.  This means our expectancy on the bet is 18.01% (the probability of 5.55)*4.2 (16/5) which equals 75.  In other words every time we place a £100 bet on this we lose £25 in expectancy.  Of course we can argue on some of these numbers but I dont think they are far off.

[MereNovice]

Well lets have a go at working it out:

Firstly, Spain are not actually through yet so if we assume that they are roughly 1.10 to go through (which is in line with the market at the moment).  Then Germany will be roughly true 1.18 chances to get through against Greece.  If Spain play England I would imagine they will be about 1.50 to go through.  Onto the semis we have Germany playing France and I would estimate they would be true 1.72 shots to beat them and the Spain would play Portugal and are probably true 1.66 shots.  So we have 1.10*1.18*1.50*1.72*1.66 which equals 5.55 or a shade over 9/2.  This means our expectancy on the bet is 18.01% (the probability of 5.55)*4.2 (16/5) which equals 75.  In other words every time we place a £100 bet on this we lose £25 in expectancy.  Of course we can argue on some of these numbers but I dont think they are far off.

Excellent.
That's exactly what I was hoping someone would post.
I have no idea about the individual odds but I think that's most illuminating.

[aaron1867]

Well lets have a go at working it out:

Firstly, Spain are not actually through yet so if we assume that they are roughly 1.10 to go through (which is in line with the market at the moment).  Then Germany will be roughly true 1.18 chances to get through against Greece.  If Spain play England I would imagine they will be about 1.50 to go through.  Onto the semis we have Germany playing France and I would estimate they would be true 1.72 shots to beat them and the Spain would play Portugal and are probably true 1.66 shots.  So we have 1.10*1.18*1.50*1.72*1.66 which equals 5.55 or a shade over 9/2.  This means our expectancy on the bet is 18.01% (the probability of 5.55)*4.2 (16/5) which equals 75.  In other words every time we place a £100 bet on this we lose £25 in expectancy.  Of course we can argue on some of these numbers but I dont think they are far off.

But are we not getting extra value with the fact the 16/5 is still representing the fact that any of these teams can get through using ET and pens? These accums are dead with a draw, etc.

[tikay]

Wow.

That post by redarmi helps explain why the thread is so popular and well read, a pro  gambler takes the emotion out of the thinking, and shows us exactly how to work out our real price.

Splendid stuff.

[bobby1]

Golf is mental Tony, what a brill spot the guys got the thread in tho. If you wanted 'sweat value' in your bets then you certainly got your fill this week.

[aaron1867]

"Germany v Spain - 16/5
Germany v Portugal - 11/2
Spain v France - 10/1
Spain v Italy - 13/1"

Above are prices and following on from my tip, I said that I would point out the 16/5, 10/1 and 13/1 as best choices, therefore it's pretty much a winner if Spain make the final, if you set the bet out how I hav mentioned in previous post.

If Spain avoid defeat against Croatia, they will win the group. If they lose, they still can go through.

Spain win group (will happen), Spain v England (Spain should win), Spain v Portugal (again, predict a win). So to sum it up, beat England and Portugal and you have a return of at least £40.

[redarmi]

Well lets have a go at working it out:

Firstly, Spain are not actually through yet so if we assume that they are roughly 1.10 to go through (which is in line with the market at the moment).  Then Germany will be roughly true 1.18 chances to get through against Greece.  If Spain play England I would imagine they will be about 1.50 to go through.  Onto the semis we have Germany playing France and I would estimate they would be true 1.72 shots to beat them and the Spain would play Portugal and are probably true 1.66 shots.  So we have 1.10*1.18*1.50*1.72*1.66 which equals 5.55 or a shade over 9/2.  This means our expectancy on the bet is 18.01% (the probability of 5.55)*4.2 (16/5) which equals 75.  In other words every time we place a £100 bet on this we lose £25 in expectancy.  Of course we can argue on some of these numbers but I dont think they are far off.

But are we not getting extra value with the fact the 16/5 is still representing the fact that any of these teams can get through using ET and pens? These accums are dead with a draw, etc.

No - those are the prices to qualify for next round not to win in 90 minutes.