Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

Anyone fancy clubbing together £1.1bn to buy Lolbrokes and just run the machines into the ground for 5/10 years (we should get minimum of 5 more years now Labour majority is a 20/1 shot), close down the rest of the business in total because it is all about the machines now anyway and after 3 years we will be freerolling the profits!

Machine licenses are meant to be an add on to the bookmaking license.  If the Gambling Commission had any balls they would remove machines from businesses like Ladbrokes that have their main profit from machines and not bookmaking.

[arbboy]

Anyone fancy clubbing together £1.1bn to buy Lolbrokes and just run the machines into the ground for 5/10 years (we should get minimum of 5 more years now Labour majority is a 20/1 shot), close down the rest of the business in total because it is all about the machines now anyway and after 3 years we will be freerolling the profits!

Machine licenses are meant to be an add on to the bookmaking license.  If the Gambling Commission had any balls they would remove machines from businesses like Ladbrokes that have their main profit from machines and not bookmaking.

Agreed given their machine turnover is 6 times bigger than their over the counter turnover it would suggest they are a casino with a tiny sportsbook operation as an add on in their 2100 outlets.  Yet they are called 'bookmakers'.  the GC really couldn't care less about the punter imo.

[exstream]

Question
At what 'sample size' would laying Brentford draws in the championship be suitable? 4 draws from 33 games...still same odds to draw as every other game each week.

[arbboy]

Question
At what 'sample size' would laying Brentford draws in the championship be suitable? 4 draws from 33 games...still same odds to draw as every other game each week.

Irrelevant sample size esp given they are close to top of the league and will be 3/1+ a fair bit for a draw anyway.  Can easily go 4-33 on 3/1 shots just with variance and nothing else at all.  Maybe it's the advanced stats that ownership use though to think a point isn't worth settling for and the spreadsheets tell the players to always gamble and go for it in the last 10 mins and never settle for a draw!  Who knows!

[exstream]

That Brentford thread definitely got me thinking!

[superwomble]

Oops...

@piersmorgan: BOOM! We drew the one team worse than us. Perfect. #monaco #afc #cldraw

[DungBeetle]

Question
At what 'sample size' would laying Brentford draws in the championship be suitable? 4 draws from 33 games...still same odds to draw as every other game each week.

Watford have zero draws in the last 20 matches (!)

[nuros]

Darts tonight, thoughts on the Bunting Vs RVB game? With RVB talking of how he collapses after 6 games Bunting is perhaps a nice price at 6/4? Also can get 9/1 on 7-5 bunting, 6/1 on 7-4 (draw 7/2)? Can't see many markets to take advantage of RVBs late game slump aside from of course laying him in-play if he's ahead. Also does "player 1" in this format throw first or is it a toss? I'm assuming from the odds on markets such as race to 3 legs that player 1 (Bunting) throws first.

Also betnoway have an offer of money back as a freebet if one selection of your 4-fold acca lets you down (£25 max), there are a bundle of favs tonight, with this offer a bet on Anderson Taylor MVG and Bunting all to win doesn't sound too bad to me. Though I haven't checked but would assume that a better price can be found on the 4fold elsewhere (9.33 on bw)

[arbboy]

Darts tonight, thoughts on the Bunting Vs RVB game? With RVB talking of how he collapses after 6 games Bunting is perhaps a nice price at 6/4? Also can get 9/1 on 7-5 bunting, 6/1 on 7-4 (draw 7/2)? Can't see many markets to take advantage of RVBs late game slump aside from of course laying him in-play if he's ahead. Also does "player 1" in this format throw first or is it a toss? I'm assuming from the odds on markets such as race to 3 legs that player 1 (Bunting) throws first.

Also betnoway have an offer of money back as a freebet if one selection of your 4-fold acca lets you down (£25 max), there are a bundle of favs tonight, with this offer a bet on Anderson Taylor MVG and Bunting all to win doesn't sound too bad to me. Though I haven't checked but would assume that a better price can be found on the 4fold elsewhere (9.33 on bw)

I wouldn't get overly excited about darts players after match speeches and their contents.  They do generally talk a lot of shit with their generally low IQ's which isn't very relevant going forward from a betting angle.  6 legs of darts lasts 15 mins.  I am sure Barney suddenly hasn't forgotten how to focus for more than 15 minutes.  He has been doing it for 20 odd years now.

[nuros]

Darts tonight, thoughts on the Bunting Vs RVB game? With RVB talking of how he collapses after 6 games Bunting is perhaps a nice price at 6/4? Also can get 9/1 on 7-5 bunting, 6/1 on 7-4 (draw 7/2)? Can't see many markets to take advantage of RVBs late game slump aside from of course laying him in-play if he's ahead. Also does "player 1" in this format throw first or is it a toss? I'm assuming from the odds on markets such as race to 3 legs that player 1 (Bunting) throws first.

Also betnoway have an offer of money back as a freebet if one selection of your 4-fold acca lets you down (£25 max), there are a bundle of favs tonight, with this offer a bet on Anderson Taylor MVG and Bunting all to win doesn't sound too bad to me. Though I haven't checked but would assume that a better price can be found on the 4fold elsewhere (9.33 on bw)

I wouldn't get overly excited about darts players after match speeches and their contents.  They do generally talk a lot of shit with their generally low IQ's which isn't very relevant going forward from a betting angle.  6 legs of darts lasts 15 mins.  I am sure Barney suddenly hasn't forgotten how to focus for more than 15 minutes.  He has been doing it for 20 odd years now.

Was more using that on top of his RVBs previous matches this season especially vs Wright and Chisnall though granted it is a small sample and Bunting hasn't exactly been amazing so far in his first premier league!

[TheDazzler]

Question
At what 'sample size' would laying Brentford draws in the championship be suitable? 4 draws from 33 games...still same odds to draw as every other game each week.

Watford have zero draws in the last 20 matches (!)

I don't really know the maths behind this stuff but just thinking out loud...........
If you can give a reason why they are having statistically more draws than the norm, then it looks a bet. If not, it just looks like a statistical anomoly?
I think a team like WBA under Pulis are probably more likely to get draws than they were under Irvine but I don't know has the price changed?
Under Pulis defensive solidity has gone up, attacking intent has suffered thus there are less goals now in WBA games. I assume less goals is a strong indicator that a team is more likely to draw?

[arbboy]

Question
At what 'sample size' would laying Brentford draws in the championship be suitable? 4 draws from 33 games...still same odds to draw as every other game each week.

Watford have zero draws in the last 20 matches (!)

I don't really know the maths behind this stuff but just thinking out loud...........
If you can give a reason why they are having statistically more draws than the norm, then it looks a bet. If not, it just looks like a statistical anomoly?
I think a team like WBA under Pulis are probably more likely to get draws than they were under Irvine but I don't know has the price changed?
Under Pulis defensive solidity has gone up, attacking intent has suffered thus there are less goals now in WBA games. I assume less goals is a strong indicator that a team is more likely to draw?

lower goal quotes automatically mean the draw price reduces.  0-0 and 1-1 are two of the most likely outcomes and both are under goals so when under 2.5 is backed the draw has to automatically shorten.  Regarding Pulis the markets never seem to react enough to his ability to land under goals bets (which in turn makes the draws more likely).  I have a soft spot for Pulis and his love of under goals as it built my bankroll 10 years ago when i first started out.  Nothing much has really changed with Pulis in ten years.

[FUN4FRASER]

Darts tonight, thoughts on the Bunting Vs RVB game? With RVB talking of how he collapses after 6 games Bunting is perhaps a nice price at 6/4? Also can get 9/1 on 7-5 bunting, 6/1 on 7-4 (draw 7/2)? Can't see many markets to take advantage of RVBs late game slump aside from of course laying him in-play if he's ahead. Also does "player 1" in this format throw first or is it a toss? I'm assuming from the odds on markets such as race to 3 legs that player 1 (Bunting) throws first.

Also betnoway have an offer of money back as a freebet if one selection of your 4-fold acca lets you down (£25 max), there are a bundle of favs tonight, with this offer a bet on Anderson Taylor MVG and Bunting all to win doesn't sound too bad to me. Though I haven't checked but would assume that a better price can be found on the 4fold elsewhere (9.33 on bw)

I wouldn't get overly excited about darts players after match speeches and their contents.  They do generally talk a lot of shit with their generally low IQ's which isn't very relevant going forward from a betting angle  6 legs of darts lasts 15 mins.  I am sure Barney suddenly hasn't forgotten how to focus for more than 15 minutes.  He has been doing it for 20 odd years now.

Ha 

[FUN4FRASER]

these parts of the account notes were funny as well.

'This has helped off-set the ongoing decline in traditional products, in particular horse racing where we saw a continued reduction in customer interest throughout the year.'  Why don't they replace it with the truth - 'we don't like laying horse racing bets now of any size because it is too hard to win on horses even though there is sufficient customer demand to place bets we choose not to accept them'

'Greyhound tracks account for £11.7m of amounts staked and £7.6m of gross win in 2014 (2013: £11.5m amounts staked and £7.4m gross win)' - I assume their incredible hold % at the two betting shops at their 2 greyhound tracks is more to do with customers placing bets there and collecting them elsewhere otherwise they need more shops at dog tracks if it that easy to have a 65% profit on stakes!

Incredible writing Arb 

[arbboy]

Nice dodge Tikay on the MVG suggestion at 8/11 (not having a betway account - the sponsors knew!)