Tips for Tikay

[Ironside]

Bansha Mo t4 8.15 Wimbledon, posting bit late as some prices gone but take 9-4 bet365- sp will be 13/8

still availble on betfair at 2.7+ is this a good?

[Karabiner]

Reading my new Cheltenham guide, betting on the odds to win over evens (horse numbers) has a slight advantage over evens as there's one more of them in every race with odd numbers of runners. Currently available at just over evens at betfair.  

Does that count or is it a silly bet too?

Well it does for me as I haven't got a clue what you're on about.

[MereNovice]

Reading my new Cheltenham guide, betting on the odds to win over evens (horse numbers) has a slight advantage over evens as there's one more of them in every race with odd numbers of runners. Currently available at just over evens at betfair.  

Does that count or is it a silly bet too?

Well it does for me as I haven't got a clue what you're on about.

If you have an odd number of consecutive integers (starting from one) and pick one of those numbers at random, you are more likely to pick an odd number than an even one, i.e. if you have the integers 1, 2, 3 there is a 2/1 chance that the number you pick will be odd.

[bobby1]

Do you bet with Laddies Tony?

I invest wherever I am told, Phil, I'm now a slave to Team Degen.

I have a little money on their Online Poker Room, been there years, & every 3 months they write to me & charge me for being a dormant client, which thrills me no end. I'd like to really give them some grief, but I also happen to own a few thou of their shares. #RockAndAHardPlace.

Just  a small bet on the golf mate.

£20 Marc Leishman to finish in the top ten of the Honda classic 10/1 with Laddies. Leishman plays his best golf on hard courses( two of his best 3 finishes last year were in events that were won by 8 under or worse) and is a very strong wind player, which will need to be the case this week.

He has finished top twenty in his last 2 starts and been in the top 20 here the last two years( why arent we betting him for the top twenty then?, well he is about three times the price for the top ten as the top twenty)

The top ten market has a lot of % in it in general so isn't much value most of the time but Laddies seem to have weighted their market very heavily at the top end( their Rory price is abs madness) so in a a week that looks to be very different from most US events Leishman might go well.

I like the bet Phil, thanks, chance of a decent sweat for a few days if he starts reasonably well.

Why is this "different to most US Events", though? Is it simply because the course is tougher than usual?

Yes, US courses in the main fall into the birdie fest category. It's a shame really because its that reason that their players are falling behind the rest of the world in shot making and short game skills. Basically most courses are drive it 300+ yards down a 30 yard wide fairway and then hit a 7/8 iron to a flat green and the guy that holes the most putts wins.

A lot the time you have to putt well to win, when the weather is bad and the course is tough the players that excel in bombing it and putting well don't have the advantage because they miss more fairways and greens and even when they hit the greens then they are tough so less putts are holed by the entire field. The steady players that find fairways and putt ok have more chance this week as hitting fairways and making pars will be important.

As a topical example these are the winning scores that Hunter Mahan has put up in winning 4 events
-16
-15
-12
and last week in the match play I think he birdied 36 holes in 6 rounds

These are the scores in four events he has finished runner up
-17
-13
-8
-12

So he knows that plenty under par courses suit his game, it doesn't make all parts of his game good, it means he mainly selects the events that suit the bits he is good at. His short game is really poor at this level.

On the two hardest courses he has played this year he shot +5 or 6 and level par

Dustin Johnson is similar, his winning scores in the last 4 years are
-19
 -16
 -15
 -9

 his top four's are

-14
-13
-12
-15

This week when double figures under par seems unlikely they wouldn't have the advantage, I am not surprised they have both left this event off their schedule.

[tikay]

Beautifuly described Phil, thanks.

Really looking forward to watching some of this, am working Thursday, & @ DTD on either Friday or Saturday, but should still be able to watch a good bit of it.

[tikay]

Reading my new Cheltenham guide, betting on the odds to win over evens (horse numbers) has a slight advantage over evens as there's one more of them in every race with odd numbers of runners. Currently available at just over evens at betfair.  

Does that count or is it a silly bet too?

Well it does for me as I haven't got a clue what you're on about.

If you have an odd number of consecutive integers (starting from one) and pick one of those numbers at random, you are more likely to pick an odd number than an even one, i.e. if you have the integers 1, 2, 3 there is a 2/1 chance that the number you pick will be odd.

In plain English, then...because there can be more "odd-numbered" runners than even numbered, but never more even-numbered than odd. So it's EITHER identical, or one extra odd-numbered runner.

I think.

[MereNovice]

Reading my new Cheltenham guide, betting on the odds to win over evens (horse numbers) has a slight advantage over evens as there's one more of them in every race with odd numbers of runners. Currently available at just over evens at betfair.  

Does that count or is it a silly bet too?

Well it does for me as I haven't got a clue what you're on about.

If you have an odd number of consecutive integers (starting from one) and pick one of those numbers at random, you are more likely to pick an odd number than an even one, i.e. if you have the integers 1, 2, 3 there is a 2/1 chance that the number you pick will be odd.

In plain English, then...because there can be more "odd-numbered" runners than even numbered, but never more even-numbered than odd. So it's EITHER identical, or one extra odd-numbered runner.

I think.

Yes. Also, the smaller the field the better the edge is.
Can you really bet on tosh like this?

[tikay]

Reading my new Cheltenham guide, betting on the odds to win over evens (horse numbers) has a slight advantage over evens as there's one more of them in every race with odd numbers of runners. Currently available at just over evens at betfair. 

Does that count or is it a silly bet too?

Well it does for me as I haven't got a clue what you're on about.

If you have an odd number of consecutive integers (starting from one) and pick one of those numbers at random, you are more likely to pick an odd number than an even one, i.e. if you have the integers 1, 2, 3 there is a 2/1 chance that the number you pick will be odd.

In plain English, then...because there can be more "odd-numbered" runners than even numbered, but never more even-numbered than odd. So it's EITHER identical, or one extra odd-numbered runner.

I think.

Yes. Also, the smaller the field the better the edge is.

Can you really bet on tosh like this?

Precisely.

And yes, it seems we can bet on anything, these days!

It used to be just finding the winner, now there are so many more ways to lose money.

Anyway, incoming dog tip hoped for from Karabiner this evening. We are preparing to plunge.

[Karabiner]

I was too late, they were going in the traps when I wanted to post after I got matched @3.4.

That's the trouble with dogging it all sounds a bit like after-timing if you tell anyone...

[The Camel]

Reading my new Cheltenham guide, betting on the odds to win over evens (horse numbers) has a slight advantage over evens as there's one more of them in every race with odd numbers of runners. Currently available at just over evens at betfair. 

Does that count or is it a silly bet too?

Well it does for me as I haven't got a clue what you're on about.

If you have an odd number of consecutive integers (starting from one) and pick one of those numbers at random, you are more likely to pick an odd number than an even one, i.e. if you have the integers 1, 2, 3 there is a 2/1 chance that the number you pick will be odd.

In plain English, then...because there can be more "odd-numbered" runners than even numbered, but never more even-numbered than odd. So it's EITHER identical, or one extra odd-numbered runner.

I think.

Yes. Also, the smaller the field the better the edge is.

Can you really bet on tosh like this?

Precisely.

And yes, it seems we can bet on anything, these days!

It used to be just finding the winner, now there are so many more ways to lose money.

Anyway, incoming dog tip hoped for from Karabiner this evening. We are preparing to plunge.

There must be a logical reason odd isn't favourite.

Although I'm struggling to work out what it is.

[tikay]

I was too late, they were going in the traps when I wanted to post after I got matched @3.4.

That's the trouble with dogging it all sounds a bit like after-timing if you tell anyone...

Ah well, never mind, next time maybe.

We have a good price about the jolly in the next, Dubai tipped it at 9/4, it is now varying between 5/4 and 7/4, though maybe Dubai has waded in and caused that!

[Ironside]

Reading my new Cheltenham guide, betting on the odds to win over evens (horse numbers) has a slight advantage over evens as there's one more of them in every race with odd numbers of runners. Currently available at just over evens at betfair. 

Does that count or is it a silly bet too?

Well it does for me as I haven't got a clue what you're on about.

If you have an odd number of consecutive integers (starting from one) and pick one of those numbers at random, you are more likely to pick an odd number than an even one, i.e. if you have the integers 1, 2, 3 there is a 2/1 chance that the number you pick will be odd.

In plain English, then...because there can be more "odd-numbered" runners than even numbered, but never more even-numbered than odd. So it's EITHER identical, or one extra odd-numbered runner.

I think.

Yes. Also, the smaller the field the better the edge is.

Can you really bet on tosh like this?

Precisely.

And yes, it seems we can bet on anything, these days!

It used to be just finding the winner, now there are so many more ways to lose money.

Anyway, incoming dog tip hoped for from Karabiner this evening. We are preparing to plunge.

There must be a logical reason odd isn't favourite.

Although I'm struggling to work out what it is.

maybe a very high percentage of favourites have even numbers

[MereNovice]

Reading my new Cheltenham guide, betting on the odds to win over evens (horse numbers) has a slight advantage over evens as there's one more of them in every race with odd numbers of runners. Currently available at just over evens at betfair. 

Does that count or is it a silly bet too?

Well it does for me as I haven't got a clue what you're on about.

If you have an odd number of consecutive integers (starting from one) and pick one of those numbers at random, you are more likely to pick an odd number than an even one, i.e. if you have the integers 1, 2, 3 there is a 2/1 chance that the number you pick will be odd.

In plain English, then...because there can be more "odd-numbered" runners than even numbered, but never more even-numbered than odd. So it's EITHER identical, or one extra odd-numbered runner.

I think.

Yes. Also, the smaller the field the better the edge is.

Can you really bet on tosh like this?

Precisely.

And yes, it seems we can bet on anything, these days!

It used to be just finding the winner, now there are so many more ways to lose money.

Anyway, incoming dog tip hoped for from Karabiner this evening. We are preparing to plunge.

There must be a logical reason odd isn't favourite.

Although I'm struggling to work out what it is.

I know nothing about racing but do they have a number 13 or is it omitted?
Also, there is a chance that there will be an equal number of odd and even winners over an even number of races.
If the course favours the high numbers, that would also reduce the edge for odd numbers.

[MereNovice]

Are the draws already know???

[MereNovice]

I was too late, they were going in the traps when I wanted to post after I got matched @3.4.

That's the trouble with dogging it all sounds a bit like after-timing if you tell anyone...

Ah well, never mind, next time maybe.

We have a good price about the jolly in the next, Dubai tipped it at 9/4, it is now varying between 5/4 and 7/4, though maybe Dubai has waded in and caused that!

On recent form it's more likely that your £5 tipped the balance.