Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

On Sunday (4pm kick off )West Brom to beat Newcastle  draw no bet looks value @4 -6 with Boyles or Stan James (8-15 elsewhere)  If you cant get 4 -6 or better I suggest no bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/west-brom-v-newcastle/draw-no-bet

Thanks Fraser.

I'll look at this a bit later.

[tikay]

On Sunday (4pm kick off )West Brom to beat Newcastle  draw no bet looks value @4 -6 with Boyles or Stan James (8-15 elsewhere)  If you cant get 4 -6 or better I suggest no bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/west-brom-v-newcastle/draw-no-bet

Why is it value? Not saying it isn't but I think you should make a case.
At a very quick look, West Broms home record (W4 L8) is worse than Newcastles away record (W5 L6) so just from that raw data, I'd prefer Newcastle DNB @ 11/8.

Ok, Olsson is back, Odemwingie may be back and Newcastle have Tiote doubtful and Ryan Taylor still out. West Brom won at Newcastle and are unbeaten in their last 3 against them. Newcastles main threat Ba hasn't scored in 5 games but Cisse has come in and looked decent.
West Brom won their last 2 home games 4-0 vs Sunderland and 1-0 vs Chelsea, which is very good form. Newcastle won last time out but didn't win in 4 previous to that.
Newcastle still have Europe to play for, West Brom have nothing.
A bit of a mixed bag there imo so a no bet match for me either way but maybe others have thoughts.

Will consider this later, Dazzler, it is not until Monday.

Be great if we did it, & it won - that'd be 3 on the bounce for you!

Let's get some feedback first, though. Personally, I rather like it, but some of these boys on here come up with cracking "reality" analysis why we should, or should not, make a bet. (Note redarmi's dispassionate analysis of the Celtic Rangers match).

[tikay]

 
The last Daily Update was Friday morning, so this covers the action on both Friday, & Saturday.

March Account.

Investments;

Dubai, PL Darts, Anderson 180's, £50 (unsettled)

Chompy, Cloudy Lane, Chelters, £25 (lost)

Bobby, Leishman, Golf (£20, lost)

Camel, Barnet relegation, (£50, unsettled)

Camel, Al Ferof, Chelters, (£50, lost)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 1, £50 (WON, returned £91.67)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 2, £66 (LOST)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 3, £110 (LOST)

Dubai, Darts bet # 4, £48,  (WON, returned £88)

Snowball, Cricket, £50 (lost)

Mere, RL Scorer, £50 (WON, returned £110)

Whisper, 'Boro, £25, (WON returned £48.50)

maldini, WBA, £25 (WON, returned £82.67)

Ralph, Rory Lay, £120 (lost)

Dubai, CL Goals, £75 (WON, returned £135)

Dubai, CL Result, £60 (WON, returned £129)

Mere, Cricket, SA v NZ, £50 (lost)

Chumpy, Blackpool football, £100 (lost)

Dubai, Darts, £120 (Lost)

Simon G, Chelt Top Trainer, £50 (WON, returned £200)

Dean, San Antonio, £100 (lost)

ChipRich, Brighton, £100 (WON)

Tighty, Arsenal Novelty Bet, £30 (lost)

redarmi, BM CL lay (£22, lost)

ACE2M, PP FB enhanced, (£20, lost)

MahagonyVic, Finians Rainbow (£50 EW, WON, returned £412.50)

Pokercade, The New One, (£25EW, lost)

Chompy, Bilbao v Man U (£50, WON, returned £143.75)

Tighty, Napoli, (£50 x 2, lost)

Redarmi, OW & TS (£40x2, lost)

Bobby, Gold Cup “WO” top 2 (£50, lost)

Fraser B, Wigan, DNB (£100, returned £100)

Horseplayer, $$ Mick (£50, lost)

Horseplayer, Pugnacity, (£20, lost)

Camel, Barnet, (£50 @11/2, unsettled)

Dazzler, Man C, (£50, WON, returned £95.45)

ChipRich, Leeds, (£50, lost)

Fraser, QPR v ‘Pool, (£100, lost)

Tighty,  Blackpool, (£80, lost)

Horseplayer horse, (£40, lost)

Jaffa, Hornets, (£50, lost)

Mere, Philander best bowler (£50 @ 5/2, unsettled)

Mere, SA to win Test, (£50 @ evens, unsettled)

Camel, Sunderland (£100 @ WON, returned £200)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 1 (£60 @ 5/6, WON, returned £110)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 2 (£45 @ 4/9 & 5/6, WON, returned £119.11)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 3 (£60 @ 6/5, WON, returned £110)

Silo, Wolfsburg, (£50 @ 11/10, WON, returned £102.50)

Dazzler, Wigan, (£25 @ 9/1, WON, returned £250)

Bobby, Rochdale, (£100, lost)



Total invested = £3,026.00
_____________________________

Returns

PL Darts # 1, (Dubai) £91.67

PL Darts # 4, (Dubai) £88

RL, Scorer, (Mere), £110

M'Boro (Whisper) £48.50

WBA (maldini), £82.67

Arsenal Goals (Dubai) £135

Arsenal Result (Dubai) £129

Brighton (ChipRich), £206

Cheltenham (Mahagony Vic) £412.50

Simon G (Top Trainer) £200

Chompy, (Bilbao) £143.75

Fraser B (Wigan) £100

Man C, Dazzler, £95.45

Dubai, Darts, £110

Dubai, Darts, £119.11

Dubai, Darts, £110

Silo, Wolfsburg, £102.50

Dazzler, Wigan, £250

Camel, Sunderland, £200

Total Returns = £2,734.98

__________________________

March Profit/Loss = £3,026 minus £2,735 = £291 loss. (Includes £250 cost of unsettled bets)

5 Unsettled bets , Anderson, Barnet (x 2) , Philander, SA, (5 bets), = £250    

[tikay]

Friday & Saturday Update.

Silo got us off with a winner on Friday evening, in German football, of all things. How you come to spot that, Graham?

Keith’s Sunderland suggestion absolutely coasted home, no sweat at all. I had actually pressed for another £100, as suggested by Fraser, but later rescinded, & instead, took it on my own (off thread) account. No regrets, it was my big mistake to invest so much of a tiny ‘roll. Sorry Fraser, but it was still a win!

Bobby’s interesting Rochdale bet never got out of the stalls, it happens.

Our weekend star, though, with his 2nd straight win (now 2 from 2) was “The Dazzler”, with his 9/1 Wigan coup. Hero! I swerved his Stoke – Man City DNB bet (was offline all day), but it ended up “no bet” anyway, so neutral.

Two unsettled bets are currently in action in the SA - NZ Test. Finely poised after Day Three, though both prices have probably eased.

Camel’s Barnet sweat had a positive day, not by much, but could have been much worse. Price may have hardened slightly again.

I don’t know where we are with the Anderson 180’s bet.

Overall, our maximum loss is currently £291 (down from £691), & within that loss is the £250 cost for unsettled bets, so we are looking much better now.      

Decisions still to be made this morning for the Celtic-Rangers suggestion (today), the WBA to beat Newcastle affair (a tricky one from Fraser), & Dazzler’s Man U to rattle up a big score v Fulham, which is not until Monday.

A great weekend – so far - & Dazzler gets the Bet of the Weekend accolade.

[tikay]

Looking back......

This was how Camel set up the Sunderland bet.......

I hope this bet loses.

But I'm certain it's value.

£100 Sunderland to beat QPR at Evs with Bet365

Rangers will be physically and emotionally shot after tonight's heroics.

It is almost the perfect let down spot. An unfancied team makes a huge comeback and then faces a long road trip versus a strong home team.

Sunderland were poor on Tuesday but that came very soon after an important cup tie.

Since Martin O'Neill took over, Sunderlands home form has been immense. They've beaten Man City, Arsenal (in the cup) and Liverpool.

O'Neill will not stand for another performance of the quality of Tuesday's defeat at Blackburn.

Evens is huge.

I hope this bet loses.

[tikay]

And here's Dazzlers two posts in favour of Wigan to beat Liverpool, this was several days before the match.

I also think I will have a small bet on Wigan away at Liverpool @ 8/1 draw no bet with Bet365.
Wigan have been pretty decent in their last couple of games, Pool are dire and with a home record of 5 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeat they cannot be backed with any confidence. Added to that their league season is over and they are still in the FA Cup whilst Wigan are fighting for their premiership lives.
As Pool have drawn more than half their home games, the DNB is a very decent saver. Also Wigan do tend to pull out one or two very surprisingly good results every season. And Wigans away form is actually better than their home form this season.
Home: 1 win, 7 draws, 7 defeats. Away: 3 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats.


And, later.......



On my Wigan bet, adnmdv is absolutely correct. I think it is probably virtually impossible to make a longterm profit regularly taking even slightly shorter prices than are available as markets are so efficient (the previous darts bet withstanding).
9/1 is available on that bet with Betfair, BlueSq and 888sport. I was just saying that I backed myself @ 8/1 on Bet365 as that is the only online betting account I have.
I freely admit I'm a losing mug punter and I don't have any computer operated models to base my opinions on. I consider myself a decent Fantasy football player and therefore think I have a good feel for Premiership probabilities and stats and instinctively feel that this bet is good. I think Pool are probably over rated and Wigan are underrated and ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value. I'd be very interested in adnmdv's pricing (as I think he is pretty shrewd) on the DNB price for Wigan in this game, I personally feel ~6/1 is prob about right, or am I being way too optimistic?
Anyway coach Tikay, put me in. You can trust me coach. Put me in. Just for a cheeky £10?

In the end, we had £25. Very nice too.

[tikay]

Don't think doing a K is fun for TK, certainly wouldn't be fun to watch.
The bet is over 20% of the current roll which I don't think the bet warrants.
Mark it down as a mistake and learn from it. Could still be a mistake that pays off.
I don't think anybody has been offended by people disagreeing with bets in this thread so it's on contributors to the thread to continue to point out what is good and bad advice.

This was a great Post.

It WAS a mistake, we corrected it in time. Lesson learned, too.

[tikay]

Firstly, I am a rangers fan so need to say this is with caution as I don't think I can be 100% objective....but I think rangers at home to Celtic tomorrow is absolutely huge- we are 3/1. Now our home form has been pretty poor this season and Celtic have been winning games...but form really does go out the window in a high % of these games...we have quite a few players back and I just see us winning at home a lot more than 1 in 4

From a quick look, I think the Old Firm games play to form more often than this post implies. A team in the ascendant usually beats the other.

But surely this is an awful way of punting? Celtic are rightfully favourites but from an odds perspective I see us winning this game at home a lot more than 1 in 4- I would say 2 in 5 or even 1 in 2 even with current situation

Sorry but you are way out here.  There is absolutely no chance that Rangers have anything like a 40% chance of winning this game.  If they had a 28% chance of winning this game it would be a massive rick by most odds compilers standards.  To put it into perspective the 'correct price' for a home team in most cases when the teams are of an equal standard on a neutral pitch would be 6/5.  In a game like this home advantage may be worth slightly more than is usual (although there are compelling arguments to the contrary) but Rangers are 11 points behind in ability terms and have gone into administration so there is almost no chance of this and saying they could win 1 in 2 games is effectively saying that Rangers are a better team than Celtic which is simply unarguable.  To say they have a 40% chance of winning is like saying Celtic would only be a slight favourite if the game was played at Hampden Park.....again this isn't even close to being true.

This I love - analysing a match this way makes so much sense.

[tikay]

Someone made this suggestion in the last day or so, but the Thread has gained 10 pages in 36 hours, & I can't keep up.

Could one of the pros "price up" a match. I saw Camel suggest pricing a particular match to 100% or even 90% to "make a case".

Can someone pick a random match, & type out the thought process - how do you do that? Is it along the lines of redarmi's Celtic-Rangers analysis? If so, can someone "price it up" on that basis please?

Make it, say, the Man U v Fulham game, or the WBA v Newcastle affair. Any match, really, would just be good to see the thought process, & maths.

Thanks.   

[MereNovice]

Cricket
West Indies v Australia 5th ODI
West Indies to win at 2.7 (or thereabouts) on Betfair.

I can't give you any workings for a "proper" price but I can't see how the West Indies are worse than evens.

They lead the series 2-1 and won the last game on the same ground by 42 runs (albeit on the back of a rare big innings bu Kieron Pollard).
Both teams are forecast to be unchanged.
I can only think that the price is based on long term results rather than current form.

[KarmaDope]

FYI Tikay, if Celtic win today AT Ibrox, then they win the league.

I wouldn't touch that game with a 25 foot bargepole!

[RickBFA]

Others are much more experienced however personally I much prefer the Man Utd bet at 15/8 than the West Brom bet at 4/6 (no disrespect to Fraser). I try to avoid anything so short.

[bobby1]

Great stuff re the Wigan bet from Dazzler and Keith and Fraser with Sunderland. Dog house for me with the Rochdale bet but I think it's worth highlighting something that I think is being missed which AD touches on all the time and something that Mond posted too.

Keith knows I am not saying this to be rude, it is just to make a point. The Sunderland bet he suggested on Weds wasn't a good bet come Saturday afternoon  because the price had lengthened by 22 ticks from evens to 2.22 and that was with Sunderland picking a good team.

I am not sure what price the Wigan DNB went off but when I last looked it was  slightly shorter than suggested. If the aim is to make money then beating the price is essential in the long run and staking the correct % of the roll is just as important.

I think Mond said if the 1k is lost you will just pull up some more, that's a frightening way to think of your money imo coz it doesn't make the bets you are having important. Having 200 from a roll of about 600-700 is deffo a bad stake if it wins or loses because in the long run you  will need to back a winner every time you have a big % of your roll on one event. It was almost a 'lets try to dig us into profit' which isn't the way to look at it.

We all play poker and know that the big difference between winning and just playing is decision making a lot of the time. If you got your money in bad and won it doesn't change the fact you got your money in bad. If you get your money in good and get beaten you have done everything right and lost, in the long run getting the right side is the most important thing in both poker and betting.

I am aware this might look like I am trying to diss the winning bets as I am going to put up an example from Saturday using the Sunderland bet and the Rochdale bet.( you can flame me if you think it looks like I am trying to back up the selection I made which lost)

At one stage in the early afternoon the Roichdale bet I took 1.99 on was trading at 1.77 with Pinny, that is a huge difference in price on an Asian handicap. At that time the Sunderland price was trading at 2.22 which is again a big difference if you are on at evens.

The Rochdale price drifted back out again nearer kick off but still went off well under the price it was backed but I am using the 1.77 to illustrate the point

The key is to ask this question Tony. At that moment was your best bet the Sunderland one at 2.0, that was 2.22 or the Rochdale bet at 1.99 which had touched as short as 1.77.

After the event is known to look at the bets and say 'that one was good because it won' is a mistake. The trick is not to get worried about the selections winning or losing coz in the end if you keep beating the price you will win, if the sample size is big enough. If you have too much of your roll on too many events you wont ever get a sample size that is big enough to find out.

be gentle Keith!!

[scotty2hatty]

About a third of the roll was invested in Saturday's football, surely if we aint happy with the Sunderland pressing then this is also an error?

[bobby1]

Someone made this suggestion in the last day or so, but the Thread has gained 10 pages in 36 hours, & I can't keep up.

Could one of the pros "price up" a match. I saw Camel suggest pricing a particular match to 100% or even 90% to "make a case".

Can someone pick a random match, & type out the thought process - how do you do that? Is it along the lines of redarmi's Celtic-Rangers analysis? If so, can someone "price it up" on that basis please?

Make it, say, the Man U v Fulham game, or the WBA v Newcastle affair. Any match, really, would just be good to see the thought process, & maths.

Thanks.  

If you think my last post was tl dr then it would take a far longer one to fully go into match pricing to do it justice. The basics tho

Find out the % of home win draw and away wins in the league the game is in. If the home teams win 50 % of the games( for example only) then your starting price for a home team in a game between two teams of equal ability would be evens (50%)

It is really important tho to understand leagues that have two or three teams that sway the %. Take Scotland as an example, just looking at the % for H x A will be misleading because Celtic and Rangers games sway the figures. To price up Motherwell v Killie properly you would need to get the % for H x A in all  games that didn't include the big two teams to get a proper indication at different stages of a season of the correct % of H x A between 'regular teams' in that Div.

We used to use a totally different database to keep our Scots Prem results in that didn't include Celtic and Rangers games.

The current League2  %( I used this coz its a league where there isn't an obvious set of big teams) is running at 44% H 24% x and 32% A.

Your starting price for two team of equal ability is around 5/4 ish (44.44), which you then need to look into the form, team news, trends, stats to tweak either way you see fit. Team news being the one area where you can get advantage after the market has been set.

I think Redarmi mentioned it a few pages ago but its one area that you can use to your advantage. Locality will be your biggest asset because it is highly unlikely that the compliers are going to get the news about teams in your area before you do.