Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

About a third of the roll was invested in Saturday's football, surely if we aint happy with the Sunderland pressing then this is also an error?

Absolutely, a third of the roll invested in a small amount of bets is far too high but the bet size seems to have been set at around 100 quid, but it doesn't take in the current roll size.

If you started with a bank of 20 bets and doubled the bets if you doubled the bank and halved the bets if you lose half of the bank you would still prob be having too big a % of your roll on one bet.

and I was guilty of putting up a bet of the same amount. It how roll's get done in quickly.I know we are all having some fun with it but I guess nobody will get any fun out of Teeks doing a k in.

[MereNovice]

About a third of the roll was invested in Saturday's football, surely if we aint happy with the Sunderland pressing then this is also an error?

Absolutely, a third of the roll invested in a small amount of bets is far too high but the bet size seems to have been set at around 100 quid, but it doesn't take in the current roll size.

If you started with a bank of 20 bets and doubled the bets if you doubled the bank and halved the bets if you lose half of the bank you would still prob be having too big a % of your roll on one bet.

I think tikay's approach has been to double his bets when he has halved his bank.
Proper degen.

[bobby1]

About a third of the roll was invested in Saturday's football, surely if we aint happy with the Sunderland pressing then this is also an error?

Absolutely, a third of the roll invested in a small amount of bets is far too high but the bet size seems to have been set at around 100 quid, but it doesn't take in the current roll size.

If you started with a bank of 20 bets and doubled the bets if you doubled the bank and halved the bets if you lose half of the bank you would still prob be having too big a % of your roll on one bet.

I think tikay's approach has been to double his bets when he has halved his bank.
Proper degen.

That's the worry with how the stakes were going. A bet is a bet, it shouldnt alter the stakes unless it is super super strong just because you are winning or losing.

[nirvana]

and I was guilty of putting up a bet of the same amount. It how roll's get done in quickly.I know we are all having some fun with it but I guess nobody will get any fun out of Teeks doing a k in.

If I'm perfectly honest, and since it's a very affordable 1K loss, I would find it pretty funny.

Love a lot of the analysis though so the nut outcome for me would be if it took a few months. However, if Tikay's reloading then the sooner to busto the better.

Schadenfreude ftw

[sovietsong]

too much sensible advice ITT.

Degen FTW

GO HARD OR GO HOME

[mondatoo]

This is not a tip but this seems as good a place to put it as any, thougths on Vettel for the title 10/3 @ Skybet and 3's elsewhere, value ?

[The Camel]

Great stuff re the Wigan bet from Dazzler and Keith and Fraser with Sunderland. Dog house for me with the Rochdale bet but I think it's worth highlighting something that I think is being missed which AD touches on all the time and something that Mond posted too.

Keith knows I am not saying this to be rude, it is just to make a point. The Sunderland bet he suggested on Weds wasn't a good bet come Saturday afternoon  because the price had lengthened by 22 ticks from evens to 2.22 and that was with Sunderland picking a good team.

I am not sure what price the Wigan DNB went off but when I last looked it was  slightly shorter than suggested. If the aim is to make money then beating the price is essential in the long run and staking the correct % of the roll is just as important.

I think Mond said if the 1k is lost you will just pull up some more, that's a frightening way to think of your money imo coz it doesn't make the bets you are having important. Having 200 from a roll of about 600-700 is deffo a bad stake if it wins or loses because in the long run you  will need to back a winner every time you have a big % of your roll on one event. It was almost a 'lets try to dig us into profit' which isn't the way to look at it.

We all play poker and know that the big difference between winning and just playing is decision making a lot of the time. If you got your money in bad and won it doesn't change the fact you got your money in bad. If you get your money in good and get beaten you have done everything right and lost, in the long run getting the right side is the most important thing in both poker and betting.

I am aware this might look like I am trying to diss the winning bets as I am going to put up an example from Saturday using the Sunderland bet and the Rochdale bet.( you can flame me if you think it looks like I am trying to back up the selection I made which lost)

At one stage in the early afternoon the Roichdale bet I took 1.99 on was trading at 1.77 with Pinny, that is a huge difference in price on an Asian handicap. At that time the Sunderland price was trading at 2.22 which is again a big difference if you are on at evens.

The Rochdale price drifted back out again nearer kick off but still went off well under the price it was backed but I am using the 1.77 to illustrate the point

The key is to ask this question Tony. At that moment was your best bet the Sunderland one at 2.0, that was 2.22 or the Rochdale bet at 1.99 which had touched as short as 1.77.

After the event is known to look at the bets and say 'that one was good because it won' is a mistake. The trick is not to get worried about the selections winning or losing coz in the end if you keep beating the price you will win, if the sample size is big enough. If you have too much of your roll on too many events you wont ever get a sample size that is big enough to find out.

be gentle Keith!!

I think it's important to look back at selections and see what I did wrong in ana attempt to not make that mistake in the future.

Obviously 2.0 about Sunderland was a bad bet.

Why?

Well, the inital drift was probably because of the chance of Sunderland playing a weakened team.

But after the teams were announced, why did the drift continue?

Possibly I had underestimated the poor recent form Sunderland had been in.. I mentioned the poor display at Blackburn, but they had also been thrashed at West Brom and were lucky to escape with a point from Newcastle.

The market might have thought replacing Barton with Mackie was a positive too.

Probably the market thought QPR's desperate need to win the match against a team with zero to play for was a massive positive.

As it happens, QPR performed exactly as I expected.. little spark and looking pretty tired throughout the team. Sunderland however, were significantly worse than I expected. Sessignon was back, but he didn't look the same player who was ripping teams apart earlier in the season. perhaps even though they had a strong team out, they very much had one eye on Tuesday. They were average at best and a half decent team would have beaten them comfortably. My missus came to only her fourth ever game and said (just before Sunderland opened the scoring) " This is Premier League football? Both these teams are rubbish!"

I still think it was an excellent spot to oppose QPR. But opposing them at Sunderland might not have been the best place to do it.

[tikay]

Some fantastic stuff again, thanks all, & great honesty from Camel, Bobby & others.

Yes, the "press" on Sunderland was silly, hence I removed it. As was 30% of the 'roll on Saturday's football. I get carried away in the moment sometimes.

[tikay]

I ended up swerving the Rangers match in the end Mr Hairydude. There was a lot of analysis against it, & I am inherently uncomfy with "betting ones own Team" so to speak.

For you, Mr Hairy, I very much hope it comes in, & you can stick it in our eye.

Fundamentally, though, irrespective of result, & using Bobby's "value" analysis, it was not a bet.

[tikay]

I keep seeing reference to "Asian Handicap".

What is it, why does it exist, how, or not, can it assist us?

[tikay]

I need to make a decision soon on the other suggestion for today - the WBA - Newcastle DNB affair.

I'll go check the current price first - Fraser said less than 4/6, "no bet".

[tikay]

I love Nirvana. No, I really do.

Respect the aged, always.

[tikay]

I need to make a decision soon on the other suggestion for today - the WBA - Newcastle DNB affair.

I'll go check the current price first - Fraser said less than 4/6, "no bet".

Current best price 4/7, so "no bet".

But, presumably, that means Fraser has a good value bet. Good luck Mr B.

[FUN4FRASER]

Just chance to log on for a few minutes .....

Im afraid the price has been taken this morning ,Im on WBA at 4-6  but certainly no value betting them shorter.

The bet may well win, but as a long term strategy we need to bet at the right price so best to leave alone now .

Nice to see some positive results all round yesterday

Karma

[doubleup]

I keep seeing reference to "Asian Handicap".

What is it, why does it exist, how, or not, can it assist us?

It is (in simple terms) a bet where one side gets a start - say .5 of a goal so there isn't a draw.