Tips for Tikay

[EvilPie]

If a team has been given an Asian Handicap then one of their players will be replaced by a small Chinese man with no arms to level up the playing field.

That would be the most amazing thing ever.

I'd probably start watching as well.

[outragous76]

If a team has been given an Asian Handicap then one of their players will be replaced by a small Chinese man with no arms to level up the playing field.

That would be the most amazing thing ever.

I'd probably start watching as well.

Wp Brent! I laughed hard

[redarmi]

This thread just keeps getting better and better.  I will be amazed if Tikay doesn't double his money at least by the end of the year.  

This debate about need to win is an interesting one.  Understanding and interpreting motivation is, these days, one of the best ways to beat the bookmakers but some people, odds compilers in particular, are lazy and interpret the need to win for positive motivation.  It isn't.  It can be but it isn't an automatic because these days footballers (or sportsmen in general) motivations aren't neccesarily 100% aligned with with their teams and certainly not to the extent we would hope and expect.  Many young players that are tied into long term contracts have clauses built into their contracts that allow them to leave if the team is relegated so it can be in their interests to see their team doing badly assuming they are only interested in their own success.  The Leeds team that got relegated from the Premiership is a good example of those kind of players I think.  On the flipside some teams really, really get extra motivated in those situationa but assuming a mid table side won't be motivated can similarly be sloppy and the ability gap still remains.  Of course you hve to do a LOT of reading and research to even be able to guess at those motivations but I find fans message boards can be useful as well as the usual places.  I nearly put a bet up here yesterday based on what i tend to find is one of the best motivational angles ever which is death/serious illness.  I really thought Bolton would be up for the game yesterday after what happened to Muamba.  Occasionally it can serve to distract and is a bit sick but if you can guarantee that the death or serious illnessis one that will be felt throughout the team you get a situation where they really want a tribute performance and everyone is 100% focussed on it.

[The Camel]

This thread just keeps getting better and better.  I will be amazed if Tikay doesn't double his money at least by the end of the year.  

This debate about need to win is an interesting one.  Understanding and interpreting motivation is, these days, one of the best ways to beat the bookmakers but some people, odds compilers in particular, are lazy and interpret the need to win for positive motivation.  It isn't.  It can be but it isn't an automatic because these days footballers (or sportsmen in general) motivations aren't neccesarily 100% aligned with with their teams and certainly not to the extent we would hope and expect.  Many young players that are tied into long term contracts have clauses built into their contracts that allow them to leave if the team is relegated so it can be in their interests to see their team doing badly assuming they are only interested in their own success.  The Leeds team that got relegated from the Premiership is a good example of those kind of players I think.  On the flipside some teams really, really get extra motivated in those situationa but assuming a mid table side won't be motivated can similarly be sloppy and the ability gap still remains.  Of course you hve to do a LOT of reading and research to even be able to guess at those motivations but I find fans message boards can be useful as well as the usual places.  I nearly put a bet up here yesterday based on what i tend to find is one of the best motivational angles ever which is death/serious illness.  I really thought Bolton would be up for the game yesterday after what happened to Muamba.  Occasionally it can serve to distract and is a bit sick but if you can guarantee that the death or serious illnessis one that will be felt throughout the team you get a situation where they really want a tribute performance and everyone is 100% focussed on it.

And "motivation" is definitely a factor where a casual punter might well have an edge over the market as a whole.

Without thinking too hard I can think of three matches in the last couple of seasons where I knew of an extra motivation which I'm almost certain the market in general would have been unaware.

[bobby1]

I yearn for the days when you could gauge the 'motivation' in a lot of Italian games by the amount of bets you took in the first 30 minutes after you released the prices. 

[TheDazzler]

This thread is indeed excellent. The more I learn the more of a mug I see myself to be!
I think a couple of people have asked if the guys who can price up games can do it so we can see how it works. An interesting game imo is the Newcastle vs Liverpool game next w/e.
Some firms have it 6/4 each of 2 and 23/10 the draw. Others have Pool slight favs. Taken as a whole the market marginally favours Pool in this game.
The shrewies here state that the market is as close to correct as it's possible to get and I bow to your wisdom on that. But I cannot see how Pool can be favs for this game. Please explain it to me.
Newcastle are 8 points clear of Pool. Newcastle are at home. Newcastle have won their last 2. Pool have lost their last 2. Newcastle have Europa to play for, Pool have no league prospects but have FA Cup which should hinder league form(?). Newcastles home form W8 L2, Pool away form W6 D1 L8. If the league started Jan 1, Pool would be bottom of the table. In the last 10 games, Pool W2 L6. Newcastle W5 L3. I feel sure the market will move to make Newcastle marginal favs by KO but why aren't they even money? What am I missing?

[FUN4FRASER]

I dont think you are missing anything Dazzler..I was looking at that game myself

I watched the game today and Newcastle were very impressive and of course Liverpool have hit a recent slump

There could be a rear guard action by Liverpool , but with the home advantage and current form/s Newcastle look a decent proposition especially with a draw no bet safety net and a price of 11-10

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/newcastle-v-liverpool/draw-no-bet

[redarmi]

This thread is indeed excellent. The more I learn the more of a mug I see myself to be!
I think a couple of people have asked if the guys who can price up games can do it so we can see how it works. An interesting game imo is the Newcastle vs Liverpool game next w/e.
Some firms have it 6/4 each of 2 and 23/10 the draw. Others have Pool slight favs. Taken as a whole the market marginally favours Pool in this game.
The shrewies here state that the market is as close to correct as it's possible to get and I bow to your wisdom on that. But I cannot see how Pool can be favs for this game. Please explain it to me.
Newcastle are 8 points clear of Pool. Newcastle are at home. Newcastle have won their last 2. Pool have lost their last 2. Newcastle have Europa to play for, Pool have no league prospects but have FA Cup which should hinder league form(?). Newcastles home form W8 L2, Pool away form W6 D1 L8. If the league started Jan 1, Pool would be bottom of the table. In the last 10 games, Pool W2 L6. Newcastle W5 L3. I feel sure the market will move to make Newcastle marginal favs by KO but why aren't they even money? What am I missing?

interesting post.  First point to make is that generally it is the closing market (in Asia and on Betfair) that is a very good guide not the opening market.  This is largely because the big syndicates and market in general bet later and iron out any inefficiencies.  The opening market can be wrong and often very wrong.  On this particular game..in general I think most people think in terms of personnel Newcastle have over performed and Liverpool underperformed but it does seem a big price although generally I hate taking big prices on things that look big for really obvious, publicly available reasons and recent form, especially televised form.

[bobby1]

This thread is indeed excellent. The more I learn the more of a mug I see myself to be!
I think a couple of people have asked if the guys who can price up games can do it so we can see how it works. An interesting game imo is the Newcastle vs Liverpool game next w/e.
Some firms have it 6/4 each of 2 and 23/10 the draw. Others have Pool slight favs. Taken as a whole the market marginally favours Pool in this game.
The shrewies here state that the market is as close to correct as it's possible to get and I bow to your wisdom on that. But I cannot see how Pool can be favs for this game. Please explain it to me.
Newcastle are 8 points clear of Pool. Newcastle are at home. Newcastle have won their last 2. Pool have lost their last 2. Newcastle have Europa to play for, Pool have no league prospects but have FA Cup which should hinder league form(?). Newcastles home form W8 L2, Pool away form W6 D1 L8. If the league started Jan 1, Pool would be bottom of the table. In the last 10 games, Pool W2 L6. Newcastle W5 L3. I feel sure the market will move to make Newcastle marginal favs by KO but why aren't they even money? What am I missing?

this early in the week those prices are really bad value because they are defensive shows that are bet to 110%+ because the real market shaping facts are not yet known, team news etc.

The market is right applies mainly to the prices at kick off, the example of a bad bet on that game at the moment would be taking 6/4 Newcastle in a 10% market. When it gets knocked into shape later in the week the % will drop leading to a 5% market nearer kick off.

Basically, unless something major happens you will beat all those prices later in the week.

Actually, you can currently bet almost 2/1 Newcastle on Betfair.

[FUN4FRASER]

Markets can change but I dont think The Newcastle price will lengthen much Phil...even accounting for the fact they are 2.98 on betfair at present

[bobby1]

That's the crux of the conundrum really. If you were to take the 2.98 now and it got shorter you would have a good bet, if you took it and it got longer it would be a bad bet because the price taken is bottom end. It is 7/4 with a couple of Asian books in a similarly defensive market too.

 the trick is to take your bet and maximise the price you get, its all down to opinion on the price but as a rule betting this early in big % markets will be tough to get the 'best' bet.

[The Camel]

The market has loved Liverpool all season.

I assume it's because they average a huge number of shots on target per game without scoring anywhere near the number goals these shots would be expected to.

Hence Liverpool are in a massively false position and are being priced up (to some extent anyway) as if they had scored the goals and gained points they "should" have.

[redarmi]

Shots are a big part of some of the bigger syndicates algorithms from what I understand although obviously other elements go into it too.

[TheDazzler]

interesting post.  First point to make is that generally it is the closing market (in Asia and on Betfair) that is a very good guide not the opening market.  This is largely because the big syndicates and market in general bet later and iron out any inefficiencies.  The opening market can be wrong and often very wrong.  On this particular game..in general I think most people think in terms of personnel Newcastle have over performed and Liverpool underperformed but it does seem a big price although generally I hate taking big prices on things that look big for really obvious, publicly available reasons and recent form, especially televised form.

Ok, well that's interesting. So if my reading of that market is correct, I should be getting on Newcastle now and the market will hopefully reflect that by KO.
My understanding of it was that the big teams were always inherently shorter than they should be due to the mug factor. I work with a Vietnamese guy who supports Pool. He backs them often. He sometimes asks my opinion. He doesn't ever ask whether the price is good, just "Liverpool, win, yes?" with a hopeful look in his eyes. I nearly always say no. It doesn't stop him. He's lost his conkers this season obv.
Lots of fans back their own teams and I would have thought the Asian market (where Pool and United are huuuuuuge) would have a large mug element to their market. Pool aren't terrible but they are where are in the league on merit. They are prob about the 7th best team in the Prem.
I just feel as though they are constantly priced on their reputation. You alluded to this with your 'underperformed' statement. I don't actually think they have underperformed. On paper they look good but as has been proven over 30 games, they simply aren't on the pitch. They have won 5 of their 15 home games. The bookies must love Pool home gameweeks. They are not being priced according to their ability or performances or results. This isn't the 1980's anymore.

Anyway, I have another question for you guys regarding 'draw no bet'.
Frasers bet on West Brom vs Newcastle was a dnb.
West Broms home form going into the game was W4 D 2 L8 and Newcastles away form was W5 D 3 L6.
5 draws from 28 games combined played. That is a low %. Should we, as a rule, avoid dnbs and just back the side we like in situations like this? I'm asking this as the same situation is occurring in the Newcastle vs Pool game. 6 draws from 30 combined games played.

Edit: Ooooh, looking at later posts maybe I shouldn't back them now. Bugger, I already did. Mug.

[The Camel]

I'd like 1% of the money the big syndicates have lost backing Liverpool this season.