Tips for Tikay

[MereNovice]

Philander will fit in at number 2 (or 3) in this list.
http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/records/283528.html

[MereNovice]

At the end of day 4:

SA 474/9d
NZ 275
SA 75/0 off 15 overs

I guess that South Africa are looking for a win.

[tikay]

Thanks for the cricket Update, Phil.

Excellent news, very happy with that, & well done on spotting our Phil.  

[TightEnd]

Very good spot on Philander

He is playing for Somerset first half of the summer. He is going to cause havoc in County Cricket especially if its a green summer

[MereNovice]

Very good spot on Philander

He is playing for Somerset first half of the summer. He is going to cause havoc in County Cricket especially if its a green summer

A chance for him to get used to English conditions before South Africa's three tests against England from July onwards. It should be a great series.

[tikay]

Account Update as @ 6am Monday. (No change from yesterday's Update).

March Account.

Investments;

Dubai, PL Darts, Anderson 180's, £50 (unsettled)

Chompy, Cloudy Lane, Chelters, £25 (lost)

Bobby, Leishman, Golf (£20, lost)

Camel, Barnet relegation, (£50, unsettled)

Camel, Al Ferof, Chelters, (£50, lost)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 1, £50 (WON, returned £91.67)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 2, £66 (LOST)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 3, £110 (LOST)

Dubai, Darts bet # 4, £48,  (WON, returned £88)

Snowball, Cricket, £50 (lost)

Mere, RL Scorer, £50 (WON, returned £110)

Whisper, 'Boro, £25, (WON returned £48.50)

maldini, WBA, £25 (WON, returned £82.67)

Ralph, Rory Lay, £120 (lost)

Dubai, CL Goals, £75 (WON, returned £135)

Dubai, CL Result, £60 (WON, returned £129)

Mere, Cricket, SA v NZ, £50 (lost)

Chumpy, Blackpool football, £100 (lost)

Dubai, Darts, £120 (Lost)

Simon G, Chelt Top Trainer, £50 (WON, returned £200)

Dean, San Antonio, £100 (lost)

ChipRich, Brighton, £100 (WON)

Tighty, Arsenal Novelty Bet, £30 (lost)

redarmi, BM CL lay (£22, lost)

ACE2M, PP FB enhanced, (£20, lost)

MahagonyVic, Finians Rainbow (£50 EW, WON, returned £412.50)

Pokercade, The New One, (£25EW, lost)

Chompy, Bilbao v Man U (£50, WON, returned £143.75)

Tighty, Napoli, (£50 x 2, lost)

Redarmi, OW & TS (£40x2, lost)

Bobby, Gold Cup “WO” top 2 (£50, lost)

Fraser B, Wigan, DNB (£100, returned £100)

Horseplayer, $$ Mick (£50, lost)

Horseplayer, Pugnacity, (£20, lost)

Camel, Barnet, (£50 @11/2, unsettled)

Dazzler, Man C, (£50, WON, returned £95.45)

ChipRich, Leeds, (£50, lost)

Fraser, QPR v ‘Pool, (£100, lost)

Tighty,  Blackpool, (£80, lost)

Horseplayer horse, (£40, lost)

Jaffa, Hornets, (£50, lost)

Mere, Philander best bowler (£50 @ 5/2, unsettled)

Mere, SA to win Test, (£50 @ evens, unsettled)

Camel, Sunderland (£100 @ WON, returned £200)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 1 (£60 @ 5/6, WON, returned £110)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 2 (£45 @ 4/9 & 5/6, WON, returned £119.11)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 3 (£60 @ 6/5, WON, returned £110)

Silo, Wolfsburg, (£50 @ 11/10, WON, returned £102.50)

Dazzler, Wigan, (£25 @ 9/1, WON, returned £250)

Bobby, Rochdale, (£100, lost)



Total invested = £3,026.00
_____________________________

Returns

PL Darts # 1, (Dubai) £91.67

PL Darts # 4, (Dubai) £88

RL, Scorer, (Mere), £110

M'Boro (Whisper) £48.50

WBA (maldini), £82.67

Arsenal Goals (Dubai) £135

Arsenal Result (Dubai) £129

Brighton (ChipRich), £206

Cheltenham (Mahagony Vic) £412.50

Simon G (Top Trainer) £200

Chompy, (Bilbao) £143.75

Fraser B (Wigan) £100

Man C, Dazzler, £95.45

Dubai, Darts, £110

Dubai, Darts, £119.11

Dubai, Darts, £110

Silo, Wolfsburg, £102.50

Dazzler, Wigan, £250

Camel, Sunderland, £200

Total Returns = £2,734.98

__________________________

March Profit/Loss = £3,026 minus £2,735 = £291 loss. (Includes £250 cost of unsettled bets)

5 Unsettled bets , Anderson, Barnet (x 2) , Philander, SA, (5 bets), = £250     

[tikay]

Sunday Summary.

No action yesterday, but we got lucky, as I clean forgot to place a Mere recommend, (Aussies v WI) which ended up going south. I also swerved the WBA - Newcastle bet. Two misses missed, we are running good.

We have two open bets on the SNZ - SA cricket which enters its finsl day today, £50 on Philander to be best SA Bowler @ 5/2, & £50 @ Evens on SA to win the match. Philander is currently the leading SA bowler in the match by some distance, & the match bet remains "live". That is a very important game for the thread - if we could get both up, we'd be on breakeven, or nearly so.

There is no related action on the Barnet bet tonight.

The Anderson "Most 180's" wager looks a goner - he is 8th of 8, twenty behind the leader. Stranger things have happened, but not much. See....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Premier_League_Darts

The only recommended action so far today is the Man U Fulham game, where, iirc, Dazzler (I think) suggested a bet involving Man U winning by more than 2 goals. I'll look the Post up shortly. The bet has not been placed, I need to look @ the prices.

Month 2 of the challenge finishes on Saturday.

An absolutely tremendous debate on here yesterday about prices & value. Few can have failed to learn something.

[tikay]

Delighted with the Wigan win obviously but a lot of things had to go right for it to come off. The Sunderland win was just solid, never in doubt. Good bet Camel.

I've another bet that I think might be decent.
Man United -2 vs Fulham @ 15/8 with Corals.

United are flying with 8 wins and 1 draw in the last 9, everyone is back fit bar Nani (and Vidic + Fletcher obv).
They love playing Fulham and have won their last 8 home games against Fulham scoring 22 (nearly an average of 3 which we need) and have conceded 15 in their last 5 visits. United have scored 73 from 29 games which is more than Chelsea had at this stage of the season when they evenually scored 103.
Ferguson is well aware and has gone on record as saying that goal difference may play a part. They have cut Citys +GD advantage to just 3. They will be looking to wipe it out completely in this game. Rooney has scored 10 in his last 8 games. They won 5-0 at Craven Cottage already this season.

Fulham are the lowest scoring away team in Prem (8 goals) and failed to score in their last 2 matches, which they lost. They are in that 'safe from relegation but nothing to play for' zone so motivation could be a problem for them. Ummmm, what else? Oh yeah, Fulham are just proper crap. Would anybody be surprised if they got done 7-0? I wouldn't.
I think -2 goals is the sweet spot in this bet so maybe £25 on that but I might also look at £10 on -4 goals which is 10/1 with Will Hill. I don't really like 10/1 but I don't see any BetFair prices. If a higher price can be got like 14/1, I'd like it more.
 

This is "Dazzler's" bet he stuck up for consideration.

I THINK this is the correct page on Oddschecker.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/manchester-united-v-fulham/handicaps

If so, the best price seems to be around 13/8, compared with the recommend price of 15/8. "No bet" then, presumably, @ that price.

4/6 @ -1 is quoted, & 10/1 @ -4.

Was keen to follow Dazzler, the man in form, but if the price ain't right, we can't.

Hope he is on though, & gets the lot.

[Karabiner]

I'll bet that's the most profitable piece of philandering you've been involved with Tony.

[tikay]

I'll bet that's the most profitable piece of philandering you've been involved with Tony.

By a very long way, Ralph. All of my previous Philander-ing has been financially -ev.

[FUN4FRASER]

Been speaking to a couple of my fellow Sheffield contacts and they agree with me that Sheff Utd will destroy Chesterfield at home( especially after the Wembley comedown ). Im told Sheff Utd will be near full strength (no Chesterfield team news )

If you can get on the 8-15 at Hills its great value although a very short price (I actually think 1 -2 is still good)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/sheffield-utd-v-chesterfield/winner

[tikay]

Delighted with the Wigan win obviously but a lot of things had to go right for it to come off. The Sunderland win was just solid, never in doubt. Good bet Camel.

I've another bet that I think might be decent.
Man United -2 vs Fulham @ 15/8 with Corals.

United are flying with 8 wins and 1 draw in the last 9, everyone is back fit bar Nani (and Vidic + Fletcher obv).
They love playing Fulham and have won their last 8 home games against Fulham scoring 22 (nearly an average of 3 which we need) and have conceded 15 in their last 5 visits. United have scored 73 from 29 games which is more than Chelsea had at this stage of the season when they evenually scored 103.
Ferguson is well aware and has gone on record as saying that goal difference may play a part. They have cut Citys +GD advantage to just 3. They will be looking to wipe it out completely in this game. Rooney has scored 10 in his last 8 games. They won 5-0 at Craven Cottage already this season.

Fulham are the lowest scoring away team in Prem (8 goals) and failed to score in their last 2 matches, which they lost. They are in that 'safe from relegation but nothing to play for' zone so motivation could be a problem for them. Ummmm, what else? Oh yeah, Fulham are just proper crap. Would anybody be surprised if they got done 7-0? I wouldn't.
I think -2 goals is the sweet spot in this bet so maybe £25 on that but I might also look at £10 on -4 goals which is 10/1 with Will Hill. I don't really like 10/1 but I don't see any BetFair prices. If a higher price can be got like 14/1, I'd like it more.
 

This is "Dazzler's" bet he stuck up for consideration.

I THINK this is the correct page on Oddschecker.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/manchester-united-v-fulham/handicaps

If so, the best price seems to be around 13/8, compared with the recommend price of 15/8. "No bet" then, presumably, @ that price.

4/6 @ -1 is quoted, & 10/1 @ -4.

Was keen to follow Dazzler, the man in form, but if the price ain't right, we can't.

Hope he is on though, & gets the lot.

I really fancy this bet, but taking on the lessons from the last few days, I have no plans to bet unless I can get 15/8, & 13/8 remains tops at present. I’ll keep an eye on it, & advise if I get on.

I was looking at similar types of wager on Betfair – Man U to win by 3 (“Winning Margin”) is 5.5.  That does not look like value, either, & is a different bet entirely, if I read it properly. (They go 5.4 for “4+”).

As things stand, then, “no bet”, but I’ll keep an eye on Oddschecker.

[tikay]

Been speaking to a couple of my fellow Sheffield contacts and they agree with me that Sheff Utd will destroy Chesterfield at home( especially after the Wembley comedown ). Im told Sheff Utd will be near full strength (no Chesterfield team news )

If you can get on the 8-15 at Hills its great value although a very short price (I actually think 1 -2 is still good)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/sheffield-utd-v-chesterfield/winner

I'll have a gander at that later, Fraser, thanks.

I'm not dead keen on backing too many 1/2 shots, though if it is "value" I ought to consider it.

Keep them coming please.

[FUN4FRASER]

Delighted with the Wigan win obviously but a lot of things had to go right for it to come off. The Sunderland win was just solid, never in doubt. Good bet Camel.

I've another bet that I think might be decent.
Man United -2 vs Fulham @ 15/8 with Corals.

United are flying with 8 wins and 1 draw in the last 9, everyone is back fit bar Nani (and Vidic + Fletcher obv).
They love playing Fulham and have won their last 8 home games against Fulham scoring 22 (nearly an average of 3 which we need) and have conceded 15 in their last 5 visits. United have scored 73 from 29 games which is more than Chelsea had at this stage of the season when they evenually scored 103.
Ferguson is well aware and has gone on record as saying that goal difference may play a part. They have cut Citys +GD advantage to just 3. They will be looking to wipe it out completely in this game. Rooney has scored 10 in his last 8 games. They won 5-0 at Craven Cottage already this season.

Fulham are the lowest scoring away team in Prem (8 goals) and failed to score in their last 2 matches, which they lost. They are in that 'safe from relegation but nothing to play for' zone so motivation could be a problem for them. Ummmm, what else? Oh yeah, Fulham are just proper crap. Would anybody be surprised if they got done 7-0? I wouldn't.
I think -2 goals is the sweet spot in this bet so maybe £25 on that but I might also look at £10 on -4 goals which is 10/1 with Will Hill. I don't really like 10/1 but I don't see any BetFair prices. If a higher price can be got like 14/1, I'd like it more.
 

This is "Dazzler's" bet he stuck up for consideration.

I THINK this is the correct page on Oddschecker.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/manchester-united-v-fulham/handicaps

If so, the best price seems to be around 13/8, compared with the recommend price of 15/8. "No bet" then, presumably, @ that price.

4/6 @ -1 is quoted, & 10/1 @ -4.

Was keen to follow Dazzler, the man in form, but if the price ain't right, we can't.

Hope he is on though, & gets the lot.

I really fancy this bet, but taking on the lessons from the last few days, I have no plans to bet unless I can get 15/8, & 13/8 remains tops at present. I’ll keep an eye on it, & advise if I get on.

I was looking at similar types of wager on Betfair – Man U to win by 3 (“Winning Margin”) is 5.5.  That does not look like value, either, & is a different bet entirely, if I read it properly. (They go 5.4 for “4+”).

As things stand, then, “no bet”, but I’ll keep an eye on Oddschecker.

Just had a look on betfair at these prices Tony , and as usual there is no Liquidity in this market so not a true price. Its always difficult to gauge "value " in these weaker markets so even if you had got the 15-8 it may of still not been a decent price just a tad better than "elsewhere".Im not saying it cant happen but with the price now being 13-8 winning by 3 goals (or more) seems a big ask for small reward

[TightEnd]

Sri Lanka v England Cricket

Sri Lanka on top in my view. pitch turning already and england have never made more than 260 here*  As it is SL are 289-8 and should really have got comfortably less than 250 if it were not for dropped catches

Whilst SL do not have a spinner to rival Ajmal of Pakistan, England have to bat twice with most batsman uncomfortable in these conditions. The pitch turned for Swann today, by the middle of Day One

SL are best priced 13-8 in various places. We can rule out the draw at 7-4, as the pitch will not last that long to make batting easy enough for a team to hold out

England 2-1, and that is not generous batting last.

Recommend Sri Lanka at 13-8 before play resumes tomorrow

Notes


* England have played 3 times at Galle and have never reached 300

Scores as follows

2001 253 and 189

2003 235 and 210-9

2007 81 all out and 250-6

Muralitharan took wickets as follows

2001 3+4=7

2003 7+4=11

2007 1+3=4

so yes an impact on these scores


Looking at the 18 test matches at Galle that have been played in total

Australia won the match in 2011 post Murali's retirement, but won scoring ONLY 273 and 210

Herath the current spinner took 8 wickets

Gayle scored 333 in 2010 in a match of big totals

this link shows all the matches

By and large, visiting teams do not score heavily at Galle, especially if batting last

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/team/match_results.html?class=1;id=847;type=ground












Conclusion 289-8 today is too many.