Tips for Tikay

[mondatoo]

I have my 1st "tip" for you but get someone to agree to it 1st.

I'd back over 2.5 goals in Newc v Lpool game this Sunday. Currently just above evens @ BF and evens widly available elsewhere.

If possible it would be good to wait for team news before backing but our best defender Coloccini will be missing from the game which leaves us very weak at the back. Williamson will have to play but he's in the worst form of his Newcastle career and Perch will most likely play alongside him who although has played well recently in a more forward role is not a very good defender at this level. I hope/expect Pardew to play Ben Arfa alongside Ba and Cisse, both Ben Arfa and Cisse are in very good form at the minute, Ben Arfa had his best game for us yday and is starting to regularly deliver what we thought he was capable of. We've scored in all of our last five games, not all of those have these three all played and if they do I'd be suprised if we don't keep that run of scoring going.

I am aware that Liverpool are struggling for goals but with the defence we will be forced to put out I'd be very suprised if we kept a clean sheet.

One possible thing to consider is the fact that as the game goes on Pardew may well employ negative tactics as with the way the table stands a draw would be decent for us but if those three start which I expect they will then I like the bet.

PS Can I get a reply to my Vettel question from one of the experts now plz  

[c4ught]

PS Can I get a reply to my Vettel question from one of the experts now plz  

Vettel doesnt look a great bet to me.

Red Bull have some way to go to close the gap on McLaren in qualifying and Mercedes may continue to get inbetween the McLaren & Red Bull in qualifying.

Not much to read into from the Vettel interview afterwards as he had a terrible race BUT he hardly came across as optimistic.

[redarmi]

The goals bet on newcastle game is definitely value.  The injuries aren't in that price yet.  Nice spot mate.

Vettel - I can't see him being value tbh.  Their car seems a bit behind this year and he is only an average driver all told and possibly worse given some of the mistakes he made last year.

[mondatoo]

Haven't followed F1 this year but just wondered if the price was an overreaction to the start Redbull have had, will avoid it cheers.

[tikay]

Sri Lanka v England Cricket

Sri Lanka on top in my view. pitch turning already and england have never made more than 260 here*  As it is SL are 289-8 and should really have got comfortably less than 250 if it were not for dropped catches

Whilst SL do not have a spinner to rival Ajmal of Pakistan, England have to bat twice with most batsman uncomfortable in these conditions. The pitch turned for Swann today, by the middle of Day One

SL are best priced 13-8 in various places. We can rule out the draw at 7-4, as the pitch will not last that long to make batting easy enough for a team to hold out

England 2-1, and that is not generous batting last.

Recommend Sri Lanka at 13-8 before play resumes tomorrow

Notes


* England have played 3 times at Galle and have never reached 300

Scores as follows

2001 253 and 189

2003 235 and 210-9

2007 81 all out and 250-6

Muralitharan took wickets as follows

2001 3+4=7

2003 7+4=11

2007 1+3=4

so yes an impact on these scores


Looking at the 18 test matches at Galle that have been played in total

Australia won the match in 2011 post Murali's retirement, but won scoring ONLY 273 and 210

Herath the current spinner took 8 wickets

Gayle scored 333 in 2010 in a match of big totals

this link shows all the matches

By and large, visiting teams do not score heavily at Galle, especially if batting last

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/team/match_results.html?class=1;id=847;type=ground












Conclusion 289-8 today is too many.

Love the analysis, & the bet.

Thanks Rich.

ON. £50 @ 13/8, BetVictor.

You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 131.25

BET RECEIPT Single Selections
Sri Lanka v England
Sri Lanka
(Match Betting - Match)
Odds:  13/8
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  131.25

[TightEnd]

Haven't followed F1 this year but just wondered if the price was an overreaction to the start Redbull have had, will avoid it cheers.

It is if you think they will improve the car substantially more than their competitors. However the development race in F1 is such that this is unlikely intra season. McLaren are generally the team able to make the biggest leap forward, and they are up there already. Ferrari have a lot of enhancements coming just to use wo high profile examples

Red Bull are struggling with aerodynamic grip, their strength of last year. In the absence of a car demonstrably better than their competitors, Vettel will be top 5 in the drivers championship but probably no better

[tikay]

The goals bet on newcastle game is definitely value.  The injuries aren't in that price yet.  Nice spot mate.

Vettel - I can't see him being value tbh.  Their car seems a bit behind this year and he is only an average driver all told and possibly worse given some of the mistakes he made last year.

Taking on board yesterday's discussions, is it too soon to invest? Ought we not wait a little longer, to absorb all the relevant info?

[TightEnd]

tikay's a sucker for a good analysis. this thread has good analysis bias 

[tikay]

I have my 1st "tip" for you but get someone to agree to it 1st.

I'd back over 2.5 goals in Newc v Lpool game this Sunday. Currently just above evens @ BF and evens widly available elsewhere.

If possible it would be good to wait for team news before backing but our best defender Coloccini will be missing from the game which leaves us very weak at the back. Williamson will have to play but he's in the worst form of his Newcastle career and Perch will most likely play alongside him who although has played well recently in a more forward role is not a very good defender at this level. I hope/expect Pardew to play Ben Arfa alongside Ba and Cisse, both Ben Arfa and Cisse are in very good form at the minute, Ben Arfa had his best game for us yday and is starting to regularly deliver what we thought he was capable of. We've scored in all of our last five games, not all of those have these three all played and if they do I'd be suprised if we don't keep that run of scoring going.

I am aware that Liverpool are struggling for goals but with the defence we will be forced to put out I'd be very suprised if we kept a clean sheet.

One possible thing to consider is the fact that as the game goes on Pardew may well employ negative tactics as with the way the table stands a draw would be decent for us but if those three start which I expect they will then I like the bet.

PS Can I get a reply to my Vettel question from one of the experts now plz  

Thanks Mondy.

"Under consideration"!

[tikay]

tikay's a sucker for a good analysis. this thread has good analysis bias 

Guilty.

[redarmi]

The goals bet on newcastle game is definitely value.  The injuries aren't in that price yet.  Nice spot mate.

Vettel - I can't see him being value tbh.  Their car seems a bit behind this year and he is only an average driver all told and possibly worse given some of the mistakes he made last year.

Taking on board yesterday's discussions, is it too soon to invest? Ought we not wait a little longer, to absorb all the relevant info?

Not really because the relevant info is the injuries to Newcastles defence and that will eventually be discounted in the price but isn't currently imo.

[mondatoo]

FWIW I'm on @ 365 @ evens for £100. GL if anyone else gets on.

[redarmi]

Also the point about bookies becoming more competitive as the week goes on applies more to regular 12x and AH bets rather than totals and derivatives.

[tikay]

Also the point about bookies becoming more competitive as the week goes on applies more to regular 12x and AH bets rather than totals and derivatives.

Gotcha.

Sounds like a bet, then.......

[tikay]

I have my 1st "tip" for you but get someone to agree to it 1st.

I'd back over 2.5 goals in Newc v Lpool game this Sunday. Currently just above evens @ BF and evens widly available elsewhere.

If possible it would be good to wait for team news before backing but our best defender Coloccini will be missing from the game which leaves us very weak at the back. Williamson will have to play but he's in the worst form of his Newcastle career and Perch will most likely play alongside him who although has played well recently in a more forward role is not a very good defender at this level. I hope/expect Pardew to play Ben Arfa alongside Ba and Cisse, both Ben Arfa and Cisse are in very good form at the minute, Ben Arfa had his best game for us yday and is starting to regularly deliver what we thought he was capable of. We've scored in all of our last five games, not all of those have these three all played and if they do I'd be suprised if we don't keep that run of scoring going.

I am aware that Liverpool are struggling for goals but with the defence we will be forced to put out I'd be very suprised if we kept a clean sheet.

One possible thing to consider is the fact that as the game goes on Pardew may well employ negative tactics as with the way the table stands a draw would be decent for us but if those three start which I expect they will then I like the bet.

PS Can I get a reply to my Vettel question from one of the experts now plz  

ON.

£50, Betfair, @ 2.06 (Returns £103).