Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I'm a sicko.

£100 train journey.

£125 hotel room.

£20 ticket.

I'm on my way to Underhill to see Barnet v Torquay. (Another ground off the list I suppose)

Come on you Gulls! (Might get to see Helen Chamberlain too)

Good grief Keith, you are a sicko!

Good manners prevents me from asking how much you must have on Barnet being relegated, but I hope you get the lot.

If you are a Hells Bellls fan, come see me at my Office any Thursday, Friday, or Saturday in the footie season, & I'll introduce you to Lady Chamberlain. What you see on Soccer AM is what you get with Helen, she is huge fun, though make it this season, as rumours abound that Soccer AM is about to change greatly, or even retire, as we know it. Last time I saw Helen she called me a grumpy old fart. Marv.

Incoming thin......

 

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Do you ever abstain from placing a bet on tips, apart from really short odds ones that require a larger bet to pay off?

Yes, frequently.

We can't just do "tips" willy-nilly, there needs to be some logic, & value.

The first doesn't always imply the other. If this is a general tipping thread that's great, if you're planning on winning/maxing your winnings you do need to be more selective sometimes, imo. Not every tip is bad, but not every tip is gold either.

Well I deffo do not see it as a "general tipping thread", that's the fast route to Carey Street imo.

I think the idea is that we try to show that, done properly, we can, or could, have some fun ("fun" being the key word for me) punting without doing our brains in.

Two months in we are at about break even. As a recreational punter, I could not have wished for better, it is the perfect result for me. Hours & hours of fun, some tremendous sweats, & it has cost me zilch. Perfect.

I'm grateful to all the Elders, I might add, for the hours they have spent educating us all. An amazing amount of people - many of them "Guests" read this thread, (around 500 views per day) & some have joined just because of it.

[The Camel]

I doubt they'd let me in Skybet hq.

I'd have to come in disguise as my nephew or my next door neighbour,

[Sighmuns]

We have a Mondy footie bet lined up for Sunday, over 2.5 goals needed in Newc v Liverpool.

I've been away for a bit but came on to post my thoughts on this match... have flicked through the last 5 pages or so but can't find where this was recommended, so I'll post anyway and you can do what you will with the advice!

I'd actually like some 'neutral' feedback on this, as in the past I have stayed away from betting for or against Liverpool, as I support them and find my heart often rules my head when thinking about them, however I've thought quite a lot about this match.

Firstly I tried to imagine what the Match Odds would be considering recent form; Liverpool have been shocking recently, disjointed and when goals have come they have tended to be flashes of individualism rather than team goals- Newcastle on the other hand looked mighty impressive against West Brom, have virtually their full team back and the game is being played at St James'. With that in mind I thought that the Match Odds would be Newcastle: 2.4-2.6, Liverpool:3.3ish, Draw: 3-3.2. I was shocked to see that the odds are actually Newc 3.15, Liv 2.44, Draw, 3.55. I believe there is value on all three prices; backing Newcastle, laying Liverpool, backing Draw. Personally I've laid Liverpool at 2.46, but I think the draw at 3.55 is a good bet.

As far as how I expect the game itself to play out, I actually think it'll be tight (sorry to go against the previous tip). Last week Newcastle's goals all came on the counter-attack, with Ben Arfa, Ba and Cisse working dynamically together, however Liverpool this season have set themselves up so that they are not very vulnerable to the counter-attack; even if a Liverpool attack starts quickly the ball tends to be played backwards so that the team keeps the solid shape, so if the ball is lost there are generally not big gaps they can be exploited with. I think the game will be cagey and that neither side will find it easy to score, but for me if anyone will win the game it'll be Newcastle.

A counter-argument to this is that Liverpool do tend to play better against the 'big' teams, and I think they'll be treating Newcastle as such on Sunday, especially after their own recent slump; it's also possible that Suarez or Gerrard will come up with something special, but I think Newcastle are good enough to keep them at bay.

The last time the two played each other was 30/12/11 at Anfield, Liverpool won 3-1, with two good goals from Bellamy and Gerrard (who had just returned from injury) very influencial, scoring the 3rd goal. We should note that Newcastle were on a bad run of form at the time, having won one of the previous 8 games. This time it's Liverpool who are on the bad run (lost five of their last six Premier League matches, including their last three on the road), and Newcastle really impressed me last week, when many expected West Brom to do well.

Sometimes when I write this much about a match it's a case of 'who are you trying to convince?', but on this occasion I truly believe that the match odds are wrong. I'd be very happy to hear any other points of view that agree or disagree with me.

[ACE2M]

I doubt they'd let me in Skybet hq.

I'd have to come in disguise as my nephew or my next door neighbour,

[tikay]

I doubt they'd let me in Skybet hq.

I'd have to come in disguise as my nephew or my next door neighbour,

Or all of them.....

Worry not, SkyBet are headquartered in Leeds, down here in Osterley there are only a handful of Execs & staff, though oddly, most of the OddsChecker Team seem to be based down here.

I'll be up at the Leeds office next week actually, I love visiting there, the Bet guy always shows me round the whole operation, which really gives me a buzz. The Grand National, of course, is HUGE for Online Bookies, it is the greatest acquisition tool ever. All the systems & software have been upgraded to be able to handle x bets & "contacts" per second, & we have a "Change Freeze" right across SB&G until the National is done & dusted.

[tikay]

We have a Mondy footie bet lined up for Sunday, over 2.5 goals needed in Newc v Liverpool.

I've been away for a bit but came on to post my thoughts on this match... have flicked through the last 5 pages or so but can't find where this was recommended, so I'll post anyway and you can do what you will with the advice!

I'd actually like some 'neutral' feedback on this, as in the past I have stayed away from betting for or against Liverpool, as I support them and find my heart often rules my head when thinking about them, however I've thought quite a lot about this match.

Firstly I tried to imagine what the Match Odds would be considering recent form; Liverpool have been shocking recently, disjointed and when goals have come they have tended to be flashes of individualism rather than team goals- Newcastle on the other hand looked mighty impressive against West Brom, have virtually their full team back and the game is being played at St James'. With that in mind I thought that the Match Odds would be Newcastle: 2.4-2.6, Liverpool:3.3ish, Draw: 3-3.2. I was shocked to see that the odds are actually Newc 3.15, Liv 2.44, Draw, 3.55. I believe there is value on all three prices; backing Newcastle, laying Liverpool, backing Draw. Personally I've laid Liverpool at 2.46, but I think the draw at 3.55 is a good bet.

As far as how I expect the game itself to play out, I actually think it'll be tight (sorry to go against the previous tip). Last week Newcastle's goals all came on the counter-attack, with Ben Arfa, Ba and Cisse working dynamically together, however Liverpool this season have set themselves up so that they are not very vulnerable to the counter-attack; even if a Liverpool attack starts quickly the ball tends to be played backwards so that the team keeps the solid shape, so if the ball is lost there are generally not big gaps they can be exploited with. I think the game will be cagey and that neither side will find it easy to score, but for me if anyone will win the game it'll be Newcastle.

A counter-argument to this is that Liverpool do tend to play better against the 'big' teams, and I think they'll be treating Newcastle as such on Sunday, especially after their own recent slump; it's also possible that Suarez or Gerrard will come up with something special, but I think Newcastle are good enough to keep them at bay.

The last time the two played each other was 30/12/11 at Anfield, Liverpool won 3-1, with two good goals from Bellamy and Gerrard (who had just returned from injury) very influencial, scoring the 3rd goal. We should note that Newcastle were on a bad run of form at the time, having won one of the previous 8 games. This time it's Liverpool who are on the bad run (lost five of their last six Premier League matches, including their last three on the road), and Newcastle really impressed me last week, when many expected West Brom to do well.

Sometimes when I write this much about a match it's a case of 'who are you trying to convince?', but on this occasion I truly believe that the match odds are wrong. I'd be very happy to hear any other points of view that agree or disagree with me.

Greg,

Mondy's tip for this was on Page 135 - this thread gallops through the pages!

See.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1536161#msg1536161

I'd really like to get Mondy on the scorecard. We are friends, but I never converse with him in real life, as he cannot speak English.

[tikay]

Charles ("Colville"?) is sat opposite me right now, prepping his script for the Sky Sports TV Test highlights Show & Sky Sports News.

I make polite convo.

"Broad is taking no further part in the Series", he offers. I nodded wisely, then ruined it by saying "yeah, I think Chris will be much missed".

"You mean Stuart", he quickly said.

I folded. Jeez, time flies, I well remember Chris making his Test debut. Chris's forename is, of course, Brian. Don't even ask.

[MereNovice]

Charles ("Colville"?) is sat opposite me right now, prepping his script for the Sky Sports TV Test highlights Show & Sky Sports News.

Chris Broad is taking no further part in the Series, he tells me. I nodded wisely.

That's a relief.
Probably more disconcerting that his son Stuart isn't either.

[Sighmuns]

We have a Mondy footie bet lined up for Sunday, over 2.5 goals needed in Newc v Liverpool.

I've been away for a bit but came on to post my thoughts on this match... have flicked through the last 5 pages or so but can't find where this was recommended, so I'll post anyway and you can do what you will with the advice!

I'd actually like some 'neutral' feedback on this, as in the past I have stayed away from betting for or against Liverpool, as I support them and find my heart often rules my head when thinking about them, however I've thought quite a lot about this match.

Firstly I tried to imagine what the Match Odds would be considering recent form; Liverpool have been shocking recently, disjointed and when goals have come they have tended to be flashes of individualism rather than team goals- Newcastle on the other hand looked mighty impressive against West Brom, have virtually their full team back and the game is being played at St James'. With that in mind I thought that the Match Odds would be Newcastle: 2.4-2.6, Liverpool:3.3ish, Draw: 3-3.2. I was shocked to see that the odds are actually Newc 3.15, Liv 2.44, Draw, 3.55. I believe there is value on all three prices; backing Newcastle, laying Liverpool, backing Draw. Personally I've laid Liverpool at 2.46, but I think the draw at 3.55 is a good bet.

As far as how I expect the game itself to play out, I actually think it'll be tight (sorry to go against the previous tip). Last week Newcastle's goals all came on the counter-attack, with Ben Arfa, Ba and Cisse working dynamically together, however Liverpool this season have set themselves up so that they are not very vulnerable to the counter-attack; even if a Liverpool attack starts quickly the ball tends to be played backwards so that the team keeps the solid shape, so if the ball is lost there are generally not big gaps they can be exploited with. I think the game will be cagey and that neither side will find it easy to score, but for me if anyone will win the game it'll be Newcastle.

A counter-argument to this is that Liverpool do tend to play better against the 'big' teams, and I think they'll be treating Newcastle as such on Sunday, especially after their own recent slump; it's also possible that Suarez or Gerrard will come up with something special, but I think Newcastle are good enough to keep them at bay.

The last time the two played each other was 30/12/11 at Anfield, Liverpool won 3-1, with two good goals from Bellamy and Gerrard (who had just returned from injury) very influencial, scoring the 3rd goal. We should note that Newcastle were on a bad run of form at the time, having won one of the previous 8 games. This time it's Liverpool who are on the bad run (lost five of their last six Premier League matches, including their last three on the road), and Newcastle really impressed me last week, when many expected West Brom to do well.

Sometimes when I write this much about a match it's a case of 'who are you trying to convince?', but on this occasion I truly believe that the match odds are wrong. I'd be very happy to hear any other points of view that agree or disagree with me.

Greg,

Mondy's tip for this was on Page 135 - this thread gallops through the pages!

See.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1536161#msg1536161

I'd really like to get Mondy on the scorecard. We are friends, but I never converse with him in real life, as he cannot speak English.

No problem at all, I wanted to write my views down somewhere to get feedback anyway, I understand you going with Mond's bet. Having read his post it seems I missed the fact that Coloccini will be out, which is quite a big factor; it would change all my projected prices, but I still feel that Newcastle should definately be favourites for this game.

[tikay]

Hi Dancer 10/1 + 4:20 Wetherby.

£10 or £20 E/W

Price won't last, don't back it at less than 10's.

Only one firm now go 10/1, it is generally 8 or 9/1 now.

[mondatoo]

We have a Mondy footie bet lined up for Sunday, over 2.5 goals needed in Newc v Liverpool.

I've been away for a bit but came on to post my thoughts on this match... have flicked through the last 5 pages or so but can't find where this was recommended, so I'll post anyway and you can do what you will with the advice!

I'd actually like some 'neutral' feedback on this, as in the past I have stayed away from betting for or against Liverpool, as I support them and find my heart often rules my head when thinking about them, however I've thought quite a lot about this match.

Firstly I tried to imagine what the Match Odds would be considering recent form; Liverpool have been shocking recently, disjointed and when goals have come they have tended to be flashes of individualism rather than team goals- Newcastle on the other hand looked mighty impressive against West Brom, have virtually their full team back and the game is being played at St James'. With that in mind I thought that the Match Odds would be Newcastle: 2.4-2.6, Liverpool:3.3ish, Draw: 3-3.2. I was shocked to see that the odds are actually Newc 3.15, Liv 2.44, Draw, 3.55. I believe there is value on all three prices; backing Newcastle, laying Liverpool, backing Draw. Personally I've laid Liverpool at 2.46, but I think the draw at 3.55 is a good bet.

As far as how I expect the game itself to play out, I actually think it'll be tight (sorry to go against the previous tip). Last week Newcastle's goals all came on the counter-attack, with Ben Arfa, Ba and Cisse working dynamically together, however Liverpool this season have set themselves up so that they are not very vulnerable to the counter-attack; even if a Liverpool attack starts quickly the ball tends to be played backwards so that the team keeps the solid shape, so if the ball is lost there are generally not big gaps they can be exploited with. I think the game will be cagey and that neither side will find it easy to score, but for me if anyone will win the game it'll be Newcastle.

A counter-argument to this is that Liverpool do tend to play better against the 'big' teams, and I think they'll be treating Newcastle as such on Sunday, especially after their own recent slump; it's also possible that Suarez or Gerrard will come up with something special, but I think Newcastle are good enough to keep them at bay.

The last time the two played each other was 30/12/11 at Anfield, Liverpool won 3-1, with two good goals from Bellamy and Gerrard (who had just returned from injury) very influencial, scoring the 3rd goal. We should note that Newcastle were on a bad run of form at the time, having won one of the previous 8 games. This time it's Liverpool who are on the bad run (lost five of their last six Premier League matches, including their last three on the road), and Newcastle really impressed me last week, when many expected West Brom to do well.

Sometimes when I write this much about a match it's a case of 'who are you trying to convince?', but on this occasion I truly believe that the match odds are wrong. I'd be very happy to hear any other points of view that agree or disagree with me.

Greg,

Mondy's tip for this was on Page 135 - this thread gallops through the pages!

See.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1536161#msg1536161

I'd really like to get Mondy on the scorecard. We are friends, but I never converse with him in real life, as he cannot speak English.

If you carry on with this abuse of my mother tongue you will have to be downgraded to an acquaintance.

I also was a little surprised at the match odds, we'd be fav's if Colo was playing, I think.

[tikay]

We have a Mondy footie bet lined up for Sunday, over 2.5 goals needed in Newc v Liverpool.

I've been away for a bit but came on to post my thoughts on this match... have flicked through the last 5 pages or so but can't find where this was recommended, so I'll post anyway and you can do what you will with the advice!

I'd actually like some 'neutral' feedback on this, as in the past I have stayed away from betting for or against Liverpool, as I support them and find my heart often rules my head when thinking about them, however I've thought quite a lot about this match.

Firstly I tried to imagine what the Match Odds would be considering recent form; Liverpool have been shocking recently, disjointed and when goals have come they have tended to be flashes of individualism rather than team goals- Newcastle on the other hand looked mighty impressive against West Brom, have virtually their full team back and the game is being played at St James'. With that in mind I thought that the Match Odds would be Newcastle: 2.4-2.6, Liverpool:3.3ish, Draw: 3-3.2. I was shocked to see that the odds are actually Newc 3.15, Liv 2.44, Draw, 3.55. I believe there is value on all three prices; backing Newcastle, laying Liverpool, backing Draw. Personally I've laid Liverpool at 2.46, but I think the draw at 3.55 is a good bet.

As far as how I expect the game itself to play out, I actually think it'll be tight (sorry to go against the previous tip). Last week Newcastle's goals all came on the counter-attack, with Ben Arfa, Ba and Cisse working dynamically together, however Liverpool this season have set themselves up so that they are not very vulnerable to the counter-attack; even if a Liverpool attack starts quickly the ball tends to be played backwards so that the team keeps the solid shape, so if the ball is lost there are generally not big gaps they can be exploited with. I think the game will be cagey and that neither side will find it easy to score, but for me if anyone will win the game it'll be Newcastle.

A counter-argument to this is that Liverpool do tend to play better against the 'big' teams, and I think they'll be treating Newcastle as such on Sunday, especially after their own recent slump; it's also possible that Suarez or Gerrard will come up with something special, but I think Newcastle are good enough to keep them at bay.

The last time the two played each other was 30/12/11 at Anfield, Liverpool won 3-1, with two good goals from Bellamy and Gerrard (who had just returned from injury) very influencial, scoring the 3rd goal. We should note that Newcastle were on a bad run of form at the time, having won one of the previous 8 games. This time it's Liverpool who are on the bad run (lost five of their last six Premier League matches, including their last three on the road), and Newcastle really impressed me last week, when many expected West Brom to do well.

Sometimes when I write this much about a match it's a case of 'who are you trying to convince?', but on this occasion I truly believe that the match odds are wrong. I'd be very happy to hear any other points of view that agree or disagree with me.

Greg,

Mondy's tip for this was on Page 135 - this thread gallops through the pages!

See.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1536161#msg1536161

I'd really like to get Mondy on the scorecard. We are friends, but I never converse with him in real life, as he cannot speak English.

If you carry on with this abuse of my mother tongue you will have to be downgraded to an acquaintance.

I also was a little surprised at the match odds, we'd be fav's if Colo was playing, I think.

Is Messi Ben Arfa playing?

[mondatoo]

We have a Mondy footie bet lined up for Sunday, over 2.5 goals needed in Newc v Liverpool.

I've been away for a bit but came on to post my thoughts on this match... have flicked through the last 5 pages or so but can't find where this was recommended, so I'll post anyway and you can do what you will with the advice!

I'd actually like some 'neutral' feedback on this, as in the past I have stayed away from betting for or against Liverpool, as I support them and find my heart often rules my head when thinking about them, however I've thought quite a lot about this match.

Firstly I tried to imagine what the Match Odds would be considering recent form; Liverpool have been shocking recently, disjointed and when goals have come they have tended to be flashes of individualism rather than team goals- Newcastle on the other hand looked mighty impressive against West Brom, have virtually their full team back and the game is being played at St James'. With that in mind I thought that the Match Odds would be Newcastle: 2.4-2.6, Liverpool:3.3ish, Draw: 3-3.2. I was shocked to see that the odds are actually Newc 3.15, Liv 2.44, Draw, 3.55. I believe there is value on all three prices; backing Newcastle, laying Liverpool, backing Draw. Personally I've laid Liverpool at 2.46, but I think the draw at 3.55 is a good bet.

As far as how I expect the game itself to play out, I actually think it'll be tight (sorry to go against the previous tip). Last week Newcastle's goals all came on the counter-attack, with Ben Arfa, Ba and Cisse working dynamically together, however Liverpool this season have set themselves up so that they are not very vulnerable to the counter-attack; even if a Liverpool attack starts quickly the ball tends to be played backwards so that the team keeps the solid shape, so if the ball is lost there are generally not big gaps they can be exploited with. I think the game will be cagey and that neither side will find it easy to score, but for me if anyone will win the game it'll be Newcastle.

A counter-argument to this is that Liverpool do tend to play better against the 'big' teams, and I think they'll be treating Newcastle as such on Sunday, especially after their own recent slump; it's also possible that Suarez or Gerrard will come up with something special, but I think Newcastle are good enough to keep them at bay.

The last time the two played each other was 30/12/11 at Anfield, Liverpool won 3-1, with two good goals from Bellamy and Gerrard (who had just returned from injury) very influencial, scoring the 3rd goal. We should note that Newcastle were on a bad run of form at the time, having won one of the previous 8 games. This time it's Liverpool who are on the bad run (lost five of their last six Premier League matches, including their last three on the road), and Newcastle really impressed me last week, when many expected West Brom to do well.

Sometimes when I write this much about a match it's a case of 'who are you trying to convince?', but on this occasion I truly believe that the match odds are wrong. I'd be very happy to hear any other points of view that agree or disagree with me.

Greg,

Mondy's tip for this was on Page 135 - this thread gallops through the pages!

See.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1536161#msg1536161

I'd really like to get Mondy on the scorecard. We are friends, but I never converse with him in real life, as he cannot speak English.

If you carry on with this abuse of my mother tongue you will have to be downgraded to an acquaintance.

I also was a little surprised at the match odds, we'd be fav's if Colo was playing, I think.

Is Messi Ben Arfa playing?

I expect and hope so, sadly I don't have contacts in the club so I will know around 12:30 Sunday 

[Graham C]

Thoughts on Doncaster v Birmingham backing Brum at evens?   I know they've not been in great form away from home but Donny have been poor both home and away and currently sit bottom of the league.  A win for Birmingham would put them 4th.   Also Donny without Chimbonda and Martis.  No worries for Birmingham.